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| Dave Rathbun |
 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:17 pm Post subject: New DOW Challenge |
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CFO
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Not like I needed the e$, but I picked up an extra e$10,000 on Thursday (today, as I type this) for my expert analytical skills in predicting where the DOW would close for the day. Ok, ok, so I got lucky.  I picked a bunch of numbers that looked good together.
Anyway, I am going to give someone a chance to win it back, and then some. So here's the next DOW challenge:
Pick the total point swings for the DOW for all of next week (Monday, March 5 through Friday, March 9). The person that comes the closest takes the e$10,000 away from me.
What do I mean by total point swings? Take the absolute value of the daily change in the DOW for each trading day next week and add them up. So if the index goes down 100, up 50, up 50, down 100, and up 100, then the total points for the week is 400. The direction doesn't matter.
Basically I'm looking to see if you think it will be a wild week or tame week. If the index only moves 50 points a day (in either direction, remember) then it's a fairly calm week. Anything 250 and under is fairly conservative. Think it's going to be a wild week? A guess of 1000 points or more might be your strategy.
Bonus! If your guess is within 1% of the actual value then the prize jumps from e$10,000 to e$100,000. The extra bonus money is coming out of Da Reaper's pockets, not mine. You can be high or low but have to be 1% or less away from the actual number in order to magnify your winnings. If the DOW moves 1000 points and you guessed somewhere between 990 and 1010 you are within 10 points (1%) of the winning value, and you've hit the jackpot.
And here's a tie breaker: Pick the biggest daily move of the week. Not the point value, but the day.  Suppose the DOW moves 1000 points and one person picked 900 and another picked 1100... both are 100 points off of the actual value. The person that picked the correct day for the biggest move of the week between those two will win.
Still a tie? We'll split the winnings. 
So for your entry you should provide the total point value for next week, and pick the day of the biggest move of the week (direction doesn't matter). Decimal values are fine.
Entries will close Monday morning at 6:00 AM Eastern time. Yes, I realize that's well before the market opens, but it's my game.
Current entries:
- vetelmo 585 Tuesday
- yandig 357 Thursday
- Im Not Warren Buffett 414 Monday
- frusnak 550 Monday
- gnd0221186 673 Monday
- Dave Rathbun 602 Tuesday
Last edited by Dave Rathbun on Mon Mar 05, 2007 4:13 am; edited 4 times in total |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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Moderator
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Edited to add big move day
585 Tuesday being the big move day.
Last edited by vetelmo on Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:35 am; edited 1 time in total |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Don't forget to pick the "big move day" too. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:21 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Don't know if folks are waiting to enter their guesses, or if nobody has seen this yet. I want to put a limit of at least five entries in order to run the contest and provide the payout.
C'mon, all it takes is a number and a day. You could get lucky and win e$100,000 if your guess is within 1% of the total Dow movements for next week! |
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| yandig |
| Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:30 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Weekly total: 357
Big Move Day: Thursday (edited March 2)
Last edited by yandig on Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:03 am; edited 1 time in total |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:32 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| yandig wrote: | Weekly total: 357
Big Move Day: 87 |
Pick the day name not the point value.
Your entry into this contest should include a number that is the total point moves for the dow for next week, and the day name of the biggest move. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:33 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| vetelmo wrote: | | 585 Tuesday |
You're entered with these values.
I have edited the first post. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| yandig wrote: | Weekly total: 357
Big Move Day: Thursday (edited March 2) |
You are entered with these values.
We need 3 more entries to make the race payoff. If we don't get 5 total entries by the deadline tomorrow morning, I'll restart the context for the following week. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Alright... I got this from a random number generation in Excel.
Monday is the biggest move, total point change top-to-bottom is 414. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | Alright... I got this from a random number generation in Excel. |
That's as good a method as any! 
| Quote: | | Monday is the biggest move, total point change top-to-bottom is 414. |
You're locked in with that entry, thanks. I'm not sure what you mean "top-to-bottom" as the number is the sum of the absolute value of the Dow moves for each trading day of the week. Is that what you meant?
Need two more to play... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Dave Rathbun wrote: | | You're locked in with that entry, thanks. I'm not sure what you mean "top-to-bottom" as the number is the sum of the absolute value of the Dow moves for each trading day of the week. Is that what you meant? |
Yeah, I meant something like that. I'm not going to think too hard about this, I might hurt myself.
Don't question the random number generator. If I ask him again, he WILL change his mind and that would be no good.  |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:09 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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550 points and Monday is the big day!
Good luck to everyone! |
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| gnd0221186 |
| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:22 am Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
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| 673 points. Monday is the big day! |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 4:16 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| frusnak wrote: | | 550 points and Monday is the big day! |
| gnd0221186 wrote: | | 673 points. Monday is the big day! |
Both in and locked for the week, we have six players (including myself) so the odds of winning the e$10K are pretty good. We'll have to see if INWB's financial advisor got him close enough to the actual number to win the bonus.
Context for this week is closed, no more entries accepted. If it turns out to be fun, I'll run this every week. Maybe we'll switch the indexes every now and then to add some variety.
Here is the field for week ending March 9, 2007:
- vetelmo 585 Tuesday
- yandig 357 Thursday
- Im Not Warren Buffett 414 Monday
- frusnak 550 Monday
- gnd0221186 673 Monday
- Dave Rathbun 602 Tuesday
Remember the main part of the contest is the dow point move; the "big day" is the tie-breaker if required. |
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| yandig |
| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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I did pretty well today.
I have an average move of 71 points and today was 63 I believe.
Tomorrow could be interesting...maybe a much bigger drop than today... |
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