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| jwelch999 |
 Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:07 pm Post subject: Takeover / Merger Candidates? |
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Investing Associate
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Since many of you on this board boast so louding about your individual stock picking abilities (cough grim cough), give us your insight on any probable takeover candidates... I could care less about the industry so show me your creative side...
If your as good as your boasts then share a nugget or two with the lesser mortals.
J |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:35 am Post subject: Re: Takeover / Merger Candidates? |
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CFO
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| jwelch999 wrote: | Since many of you on this board boast so louding about your individual stock picking abilities (cough grim cough), give us your insight on any probable takeover candidates... I could care less about the industry so show me your creative side...
If your as good as your boasts then share a nugget or two with the lesser mortals.
J |
Pfffft, taint no way to purrdict which company is gonna be taken over. But here's a good clue to help you with your search. Takeovers happen at 2 junctures....when stocks are grossly overpriced....and when stocks are grossly underpriced. That's why we are seeing a wave of takeovers right now. Stocks are grossly overpriced so the company whose stock is trading at $50 but is really worth $10 can use the windfall to waste muny....just like you'd do it if you had more muny then sense. Taint no difference betwixt a company exec and you.  So if I was to purrdict a company that was gonna get taken over right now I would look at da most grossly overvalued sector (energy) and I would look for the company that will make $$$ at the lowest price/barrel of crude. If most companies need crude to stay at $40+ to be profitable but you find one that will be profitable even at $25 then it may be a candidate. Then I would pray that da bubble in the energy stocks doesn't burst before the company I bought stock in has the stock price tumble along mit da resto dum.  When the truth comes out taint nuthin that's gonna save any of em from getting deeeeestroyed. In the natgas sector I think that CHK has an outside shot at taking out its 52 week high....although that's questionable, so perhaps it's a candidate. Eventually it's a sub $5 stock though....unless of course sumbody is stoopid enough to buy em out. Then the overvaluation from CHK simply passes on to the buying company. Kind of like GE, Jeff Iemolt paid waaaay to much for most of the crap companies he bought in the past 5 years. That's why GE will be a sub $20 stock again. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:41 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Something about takeovers: Its worthwhile to see how the buying company is paying for its purchase. If the buyer thinks their stock is undervalued, then they won't use that as payment because they figure its more efficient to pay in cash. Now take the inverse: if a company does a takeover using stock, they have to figure thats more bang for their buck... so its sort of an admission that the share price is significantly above fair value. |
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| jwelch999 |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:19 am Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 06 Jul 2006
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Thanks for the input gents...
Da Reaper is an honorable gentlemen and gave some quality info... Agree with your assessment on energy.... Big dollars flowing at the big boys mean smaller companies must be scared. The problem is exactly as you put it... are we willing to pay the price to wait (in hopes of buyout)...
Any companies on the other side you mentioned (ie grossly underpriced)?
J |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:58 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| jwelch999 wrote: | Thanks for the input gents...
Da Reaper is an honorable gentlemen and gave some quality info... Agree with your assessment on energy.... Big dollars flowing at the big boys mean smaller companies must be scared. The problem is exactly as you put it... are we willing to pay the price to wait (in hopes of buyout)...
Any companies on the other side you mentioned (ie grossly underpriced)?
J |
In the energy sector?!! Hardly! But here are 2...STG, CNR. Still waiting to see if me new n improved tawget entry price on solar play XSNX at .40-.45 is gonna be low enough.  |
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| snapplekid13 |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:34 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| If you can predict which company is being taken over you will cash in BIG bucks! Like Petco is being taken over.. I MADE HUGE PROFITS! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:49 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| snapplekid13 wrote: | | If you can predict which company is being taken over you will cash in BIG bucks! Like Petco is being taken over.. I MADE HUGE PROFITS! |
Yeah...but you didn't purrdict it....you got lucky!  |
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| snapplekid13 |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:51 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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How do you know i didn't predict? Hmmm i knew it all along! Muhahahahaha!  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:04 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| snapplekid13 wrote: | | How do you know i didn't predict? Hmmm i knew it all along! Muhahahahaha! |
Oh I know. BTW, you got your 10 posts in for the munth....good job! |
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| snapplekid13 |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:05 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| yea and that bumped ou out of the real money prize LOL! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:22 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| snapplekid13 wrote: | | yea and that bumped ou out of the real money prize LOL! |
Did it? I thought it brought me closer to second place since yesterday you were up 36% and now you are up 17%. What did you do?! Start trading again?!! |
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| jwelch999 |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:27 am Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 06 Jul 2006
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2243.64 e$
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Grim,
Didn't mean to limit you to Energy on the undervalued question... Thoughts in other industries?
J |
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| tekbubble |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| jwelch999 wrote: | Grim,
Didn't mean to limit you to Energy on the undervalued question... Thoughts in other industries?
J |
Here are 20+ stocks in various sectors that are the closest to long term DA BOTTOM and could get there this week. ESCL, IMMU, COR, BPA, INHX, NGEN, TWTI, WGAT, SQNM, CRIS, PWRM, VERT, FMDAY, BPUR, MBAY, SUPG, CTIC, SFLK, LOUD, PACW, EGHT, MEM, ARIA, IPIX, CMOS, ISPH, VSGN, VLTS....most of em need to lose 10-30% befo they DA BOTTOM. But if they only gotsta lose 10-30% it beats has'n ta lose 70% and then has'n ta lose anudder 50% afta it loses da 70%. Most crap out there is in dat boat. Have fun mit this list. In fact, jot these down and lemme know how rich you would have been a year from now if you had bought'n every one o 'dem. |
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| jwelch999 |
| Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:54 am Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 06 Jul 2006
Posts: 44
This Month: 0
2243.64 e$
Net worth: 17,355.44
Portfolio Value: 15,111.80
Monthly Return: 5.25%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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appreciate the list... I will test your theory by buying a few of these on their next significant dip (10%+)... I'll use e$ by the way... Don't know that I trust ya enough to real money...
J |
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