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| VIX vs da Naz |
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| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:54 am Post subject: VIX vs da Naz |
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CFO
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The VIX came a hair form signaling that the 9.88 low needs to go and is rallying as the Naz prepares to take out the 52 week high, looks like there is gonna be hell to pay now, they shouldn't outta had taken out 2191.60 Naz, and as of yet they haven't!  we ain't comin back soon if they do, added to my short position in SHLD through 163 but not in WMB, I bought those puts dirt cheap the way it is, no safe havens when the market turns, we's goin to sub 1900 if the Naz fails to take out 2191.60, much lower if it does make a new 52 week high, let's see what happens. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:10 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Oooops, wrong board again, meant to post this under my no fear post at the Discuss Stocks board, no wonder I couldn't find that previous post, wrong board, sorry!  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:58 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| I guess I'll just continue this thread on this board since it's got some Greenspam in it it looks like the VIX did bottom yesterday and should be on its way through 18.50, and my worse fear was realized on the open when the Naz confirmed the last remaining trend top at the 52 week high, there are still some stocks that should confirm yesterdays highs with higher highs, so I'm wreckin there will be one last rally to drive out any remaining shorts and bring those who are lookin to get their butts whooped in, maybe we will follow the same scenario as yesterday where the market rallied immediately after Greenie stopped ramblin, we could also go down and retest some lower support areas first, that's what I'm hoping for since it would give me a chance to take a short term profit on my new SHLD puts and add again through 163.50 it'll be interesting to see how far GOOG rallies today if the market turns and heads higher, if I have any cash left here at EI I will definitely buy some GOOG 270 puts into the close, they were trading at 2.00 the last time I checked, would be sweet if they got down to 1.00 into the close, methinks it's gonna pull a YHOO after earnings, the next several days will get very exciting in da mawkets, i can assure you of that! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:23 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Strange VIX quote today, I'll assume it is a false trade, the problem I'm having is that it is showing up on da chawt as true volatility activity, VIX back down at 10.80 now and the DMI indicator is possibly signaling an uptrend beginning, but still some stocks with nonconfirmed highs, like me SHLD for instance, I think everything should play out within the next trading day, possibly even today, that VIX trade to the 36.56 shows up on da chawt as a high that will be confirmed at some time in the future with a higher high, for now I am assuming it is a false trade, I am only expecting da VIX to trade through 18.50 for now, with the assumption that it gets through 20.00, getting close to decision time for the Naz methinks, let's see. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:38 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Da VIX almost filled the gap up from Mon when it moved to 10.57, a move to 10.50 would do it, not saying it has to completely fill that gap though, the most important thing is that the Naz takes out today's 2184.02 high at this point, after that high was put in it traded to 2081ish and is now attempting to take out the high, very critical juncture here, a move lower that closes below 2160ish would signal a key reversal day and set up the massive wave of selling that is going to begin any day now, but da bulls should take comfort in knowing that the markets have never crashed on a Tue, Wed, or Th |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | ...signal a key reversal day and set up the massive wave of selling that is going to begin any day now... |
You've been calling for a "Naz" reversal for quite a few weeks now. I guess if you keep saying it, you're bound to be right.
Eventually. 
What's the story now, what do your charts tell you?  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:54 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Actually, I've been calling for a move to at least 1915 for the past week or so, before that I said the Naz would probably take out the 2106 high and there was really no way to tell how high it would go until it breached 2106, once that happened I was hoping for the sake of the bulls that the Naz did not take out the 52 week high because of the negative rammifications, when that happened I began calling for a steep selloff, the Naz took out the 52 week high on 7/20 and again on 7/21, so if you are going to tell me what I said at least pay better attention basically the lowdown on da ho down goes like this, today the VIX filled the gap to 10.50 with the move to 10.34, that said, it finished in a position where even the slightest move up in the Naz (and resulting move down in the VIX) on the open would dictate a new lower trend bottom on da VIX, one that would almost guarantee a move to VIX 8.00 or less before the Naz rally was complete, which would dictate a possible move of another 100+ points on the Naz, there are some other signs which point to a lower open though, like the fact that the semis didn't do too well today yet the SMH still closed with a positive OBV of 28 million on the 20 day chart, which means that traders still think the semis are going higher (except for maybe the fokes who bought Cramer's LSI and got crushed in AH of course), the Naz ainna goin nowhere without the semis, on the other hand it appears that the o/g and commodity stocks are about to begin another downleg of a more serious nature, that should be good news for stocks in general, if stocks sell off in unison then it will be a more definite signal of things to come, I doubt any selling that happens now will be the big move I am looking for anyway, not with crap like AMZN, SHLD, and NVDA leaving behind nonconfirmed price or trend tops, but we could see a fall through Naz 2060 minimum, the sector to buy on the fall would be the airlines and possibly some gold stocks, I wouldn't buy AMR though, try DAL, NWAC, or FLYI after they are off 30-40% from current levels, except for FLYI, I'd start buying it for the long term at .48-.52, and if a new signal comes in that tells me these dawgs are goin even lower I reserve the right to change my outlook and my targets, remember, I am neither a bull nor a bear, I'm a chameleon |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | so if you are going to tell me what I said at least pay better attention |
Oh? Hmmm. Let's try these on for size, shall we? If the shoe fits...
One June 21 | Gripreaper wrote: | | methinks the markets will remain wishy washy into Fri, we will not have our key reversal day today as I was hoping... |
On June 23 | Grimreaper wrote: | | ...and I'm not even sure the move to 2106 on the Naz today is a confirmed top since me chawts has been down all day, there still should be a bitmo wigglin before they take this thing down in a heap,... |
On June 28 | Grimreaper wrote: | | both the XOI and the Naz are breaching their highs at the same time, I still think the oils will fall big, but this may create a blowoff top situation in the Naz by Fri, or worse yet, the Naz could go up and confirm the 52 week high at 2193, once all tops are confirmed there will be only one direction left, and that's down,... |
And here's a more recent quote, from earlier today, in fact: | Grimreaper wrote: | | but I don't think the Naz rally is going to amount to much, could be setting up the beginning of the end here, if we can't make a new Naz high by sometime before Fri I believe the steep Naz selloff will begin... |
This "steep selloff" would be the one you've been calling for for over a month now? Like I said, keep saying it, eventually you'll be right. Good luck with that.
I'm just trying to keep you honest... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Thanks for verifying what I said I said, June 21, no key reversal day means no strong down move, June 23, the 2106 high turned out to be a high that needed to be confirmed when my chawts came up, and I did say that it appears there would be more shennanigans, BTW, you'll be glad to know they are working just fine today June 28, the market did go up and take out the 52 week high as I acknowledged it might, and finally today's outtake, I updated that one in my last post where I said we will know alot more early in the trading day, so if you want to stay up all night and guage the various futures markets just so you can be here in da mownin to tell me I was wrong, well that's up to you, but I'm about to turn into a pumpkin, but I will say this, I am as excited about what happens tomorrow as you are, I luv this stuff! doanchu?!! you should try making some market commentary on your own, the fokes here at EI did not say that I had to be the only one at the site who has the balls to go out on a limb and make a perdickshun! c'mon big guy, give it a try!  |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | Thanks for verifying what I said I said, June 21, no key reversal day means no strong down move, |
You left out the "as I was hoping". That's the most important part of that quote. I guess I should have highlighted that part too.
| Grimreaper wrote: | | you should try making some market commentary on your own, the fokes here at EI did not say that I had to be the only one at the site who has the balls to go out on a limb and make a perdickshun! c'mon big guy, give it a try! |
Okay, here's an absolute certainty: The markets will fluctuate tomorrow. And the next day. And the day after that. You and I have different objectives, at least from where I'm sitting. I don't read charts, and I don't have short-term investing objectives. I rarely play options. I buy shares in companies and hold them. I don't care what the market does tomorrow. I don't even care what the market does next week. I look for companies that I believe will reward long-term investments. That reward can be increased value (stock price) or dividends, or a combination of both.
So you won't find me looking for the "Naz" to turn around by Friday. Frankly I think people that stress over where the market is going "tomorrow" are just that, stressed. But as I said, good luck with that. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Well Dave, someone once said every journey begins with the first step, so contrary to your beliefs and more importantly your hopes is the fact that short term fluctuations are very important to the longer term scheme of things, of course you don't see that now because just like the vast majority of people holding long positions you are expecting that your long term holdings will perform well going forward, but I seriously doubt that they will, especially if you are holding any stock that has more than doubled since March of 2003, I'm sure you won't want to divulge any of your holdings to me either since that will put you on the spot, but if you do I will promise you this, when what I say is going to happen actually happens, I won't come back and tell you I told you so and I never stress over short term fluctuations, when I take a long position I plan on holding at least part of it for at least one full year, of course most of the stocks I plan in taking positions in you wouldn't buy, would you believe I once owned BEAV when it was trading as a 2.00 stock? well I did, and I sold loooong ago, now Cramer is telling his flock it is a strong buy, I think I'll wait until it trades as a 2.00 stock again if you don't mind, my put plays are simply small bets that I am making on grossly overpriced pigs that are trading at an extreme, if I am correct I will end up at least quadrupling my investment, I see no problem with that type of short term speculation, do you? |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | so contrary to your beliefs and more importantly your hopes is the fact that short term fluctuations are very important to the longer term scheme of things |
I disagree with this statement. Why do you think people look at trendlines to smooth out a chart? Even the most basic technical analysis can be done by looking at a n-day trailing average. You know what that does, right? It takes short term fluctuations out of the equation.
| Quote: | | ...of course you don't see that now because just like the vast majority of people holding long positions you are expecting that your long term holdings will perform well going forward, but I seriously doubt that they will, |
Thanks for the vote of confidence.
| Quote: | | especially if you are holding any stock that has more than doubled since March of 2003, I'm sure you won't want to divulge any of your holdings to me either since that will put you on the spot, |
Apple. AAPL. Held since October 2000. Sold half my shares Feb this year, 326% return to date on the remaining unsold shares.
Applied Materials. AMAT. Held since 1998, sold half my holdings in Feb 2000 (just before the big crash). 167% return to date on the remaining shares.
CIEN. Bought and sold once, bought again on the way down, waiting for the rebound. Currently have a 74% loss on this position. They can't all be winners.
eBay. Bought Jul 2000. Sold half my shares at $85. Remaining shares at a 214% return.
EMC. One of the dogs of my portfolio. 53% loss to date.
HD. 23% return.
Intel (INTC) Bought in 1998. That's long term investing. 315% return. Divide that by 7 and you get 45% annual return.
Juniper Networks JNPR. Another dog, but it's a good company, good products. 70% down at the moment.
Oracle. ORCL. Up 144.31%, held for 7 years, that's a 20% return annually.
Proctor and Gamble. PG Up 101% over 5 years. Another 20% annual.
SONE. Bought at $5.69, got 300 shares. Sold half at $126. Still have the rest, and they're down 16%. Think I care?
WFMI. Bought at $15, sold half recently at a 600% gain. Current shares are up even further at 658%. These remaining shares could go to zero and I still have a 600% gain in the bank.
That list includes many of my active holdings. I also hold MVL and PIXR (entertainment), JPM and XLF (Financial), BRCM and DELL (Tech), and more. Am I setting the world on fire with my investing skills? Nope. But I'm doing okay, I'm beating the market indexes (and have every year since I started investing). So don't worry about putting me on the spot; I don't have any problem sharing my current holdings. I won't try to pull one over on you... I posted plenty of dogs as well as good picks. I've liquidated some of the dogs, but others I'm holding on. Have I held on to some too long? Sure. I've had several companies pull the plug on me. It's not pretty. But as long as the winners outweigh the losers you're doing okay. Right?
You chose one road, I chose another. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:14 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Well Dave, to answer your first question, if you were using trendlines to establish stop positions for instance, you wouldn't have owned INTC, ORCL, or AAPL since 1998-2000  by the evidence you presented, perhaps you are the type of investor who doesn't mind just holding a loser like CIEN all the way down to a 50% loss because you like the prospects of the longer term based on funnymentals I guess, did you really hold INTC all the way down to the 10.00's? if you are going to tell me you averaged down then I want you to tell me how you knew when to average into INTC, and please apply it to current market conditions and give us something you like that is trading close to a 52 week low right now, just like INTC was in 2001, if you liked that stock enough to hold it through 9/11 to the 2002 bottom you are alright with me since I also have lost 50%+, by using strictly technicals, if you tell me you averaged into INTC in Aug of 2002 you will become the number 1 guru I will follow on da net of course if you tell me you just held and never added I'll see what I can do to help smooth out the peaks and valleys that would be inevitable in a system like yours, that's my mission I have a feeling that someday buying and holding the oil stocks for instance may not work, glad to see that you took profits periodically, good luck to ya! oh yeah, my favorrite on your current list of long term holds is CIEN, but I promise not to buy till it hits 1.00-1.20, minimum! |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 3:30 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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I've held INTC with no transactions since the initial purchase.
My only claim to "guru" status was that I sold partial shares of nearly all of my tech stocks in February 2000. The significance of that? The "crash" of the Nasdaq was March, 2000. So my luck (and I don't claim that it was anything but luck) is that I sold out of partial shares (except for INTC, which I held straight through) of many of my tech holdings nearly at the peak. In the previous post I mentioned SONE... bought around $6, sold at $126. That's a real trade. Sold shares of SONE (bought 5 5/8, sold 126 3/8 ), CIEN (bought 8 3/8, sold 64 1/4) AMAT (31 11/16 to 182 1/2), IRSN (1 13/16 to 11), COMS (29 11/16 to 115 7/16), TKLC (12 to 30). There are more, but you get the idea. These trades were placed on various days from Feb 18 through March 2 of 2000. I held ORCL shares through to June by selling covered calls for a strike price of 80 (pre-split). My sale of 300 shares of ORCL at 80 resulted $24K (before commission) on a cost basis of under $4K.
Shares I should have sold but didn't: AOL (now TWX), JDSU, GLW, JNPR... I should have sold partial or all shares of these holdings as well, and didn't.
So there you have it, my one claim to fame is getting out before the crash, at least in enough stocks to make a big difference in my portfolio returns for that particular year. I made no trades for two years after that, as the market wasn't ready for me to step back in. For the past 18 months I have slowly been getting back in where I saw an opportunity. I will buy and hold until the time seems right to sell once again. That, in a nutshell, is my strategy.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 3:43 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| OK Dave, no problem, give me a handful of names you bought in the past 18 months and you plan on holding like you did with INTC, if you don;t mind of course and tell me the one you purchased most recently, thanks! |
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