| Author |
Message
|
| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:12 am Post subject: |
 |
|
CFO
|
The coming crash in the oil and gas stocks should lend credibility to my contention that "E", the "earnings" part of PE doesn't matter, all the anal-ysts out there are telling us these stocks are great long term investments because their earnings are based on crude oil being priced at 38.00 or so, little do they realize that Enron's PE was at 3.00 or so as it traded in the 2.00 range, it looked like a good investment based on the PE, but as we will soon see (starting as early as today), earnings really do not matter in regards to where a stock is trading since stock prices are simply a function of what someone is willing to pay at any given time, the setup for the coming fall in the o/g stocks is perfect since the anal-ysts will not believe it and will be telling people to continue to buy on weakness, a sure recipe for disaster for anyone who heeds their advice  |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| freeye |
| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
to waltman: hey i know what you mean. sometimes i really wonder what is going on with the man. possibly it is time he hung it up and called it a career.
i don't know exactly when he started it but he is having guests on the show
where in the past he had a no guests on the show. this may be another sign of his loosening his grip on things.
last i knew he had moved to las vegas/henderson nevada area to be closer to his sun in tucson. az and they get together and play golf, this may be another sign of his refocusing his attention elsewhere.
i've began posting some bullet points of my interpretation of what was said
on the live broadcast so those that are interested may exchange thoughts here on this topic.
i rarely listen to the entire show or even both days of the show and my listening and note taking ability may be somewhat suspect but i'm hoping that others here on this topic will set me straight if i get something wrong along the way.
hope these bullet points will serve as a reminder of a few of the topics and a point for further discussion.
anything of the items listed in my post just prior to this one look interesting to you for further discussion?
i was happy to hear siegels view on what he will do if he sees weakness in the market, buy!
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| freeye |
| Posted: Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:26 pm Post subject: What's Your View on Markets? Inquiring minds want to know! |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
Bob Brinker said something to the effect... there is no rush to balance your portfolio with bonds since his outlook is good on the markets, recommending a staging of the rebalancing over a series of months.
do you agree with this recommendation?
i'm not as sure as he is with august, september and october looming within this time frame. since these months are seasonaly and historically very weak.
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| freeye |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:08 am Post subject: Were Enrons earnings were fabricated? |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
grimreaper: i thought enrons earnings were fabricated out of thin air?
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
They were, but what do earnings have to do with anything?  earnings don't matter, the only thing that matters is what somebody is willing to pay for a stock at any given time, it's all about investor perceptions, I will tell you this right now, when the o/g companies start reporting earnings here soon they will be stellar, yet the stock prices will start falling and keep falling, why? because earnings don't matter! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| freeye |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 10:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
grimreaper said :
"the only thing that matters is what somebody is willing to pay for a stock
at any given time, it's all about investor perceptions."
so grimreaper: Q. what will change the investor perceptions on the oil
stocks?
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 11:00 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
Freeye, this stuff is supposed to be so simple it's obvious! when crude was rising from 40.00 to 60.00 and the stocks were rising in sympathy, that was obvious, so you buy, now the anal-ysts are saying that crude is going to 75.00, maybe 100.00 per barrel, that looks obvious, but today crude prices rose while the oil stock prices fell, not so obvious, pretty simple really, buy when it's obvious, sell when it's obvious, right now it isn't so obvious so you hold, when crude prices fall and the crude stocks fall then you sell, that's obvious, see how easy this crap is? hopefully I've made it clear to you why the average investor does so well in the stock market over time this stock market stuff ain't brain surgery ya know? that's haaaaaaard, I tried to learn that through an internet home study course but I gave up after I botched the first operation I did on meself, Cramer knows the game, so what if SHLD has a total of 10 customers in any given store at any given time during store hours? SHLD isn't a retailer, right? it's a "land bank" that might not be so obvious, that's why we need Cramer  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| freeye |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 11:17 am Post subject: Buy the Obvious - Hold the Not so Obvious - Sell the Obvious |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
thanks grimreaper:
now i understand why the schematic i'm building of your brain is... well... not quite... what i expected if you know what i mean.
so this buying the obvious and selling the obvious thing you describe works well enough for you?
i guess i hadn't really thought of it in those terms before. thanks for the clarification.
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Here's where it gets even more confusing, I didn't say I buy and sell when it is obvious, you axed me what will change investors perceptions, so I told ya, I'm actually taking a real $$$ position as close to when things become as obvious as they possibly can to the majority of da sheeple, except I be the one betting the opposite way, thus my decision to buy WMB puts just yesterday |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| freeye |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:06 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
thanks grimreaper:
ok-ok-ok... i think i got it now... when the price of a barrel of oil and the stock price are both going up... it is obvious to all the average investors out there... and ole... grimreaper... is in there betting the opposite way.
thus cleaning up gains when things become less obvious to the average investor, like when either one; the price of the oil declines and stock price goes up or the price of the barrel of oil goes up and the share price falls...
... and cleaning up really big gains when the price of a barrel of oil is headed down and the oil stock share prices are both heading down something obvious to the average investor.
at this point the grimreaper cashes in his short positions.
how am i doing now grimreaper. have i just about got it.
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
 |
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:11 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| I'm not sure that you've got it yet there Freeye, in fact, if you are looking towards people like K-bomb and Cramer you are destined to be nothing but a trader, and the sad truth is that traders always lose, just ask anyone who has followed Cramer's advice on XOM in the last 3 months for confirmation on that, today we wake up to some news that could be a catalyst in several markets all at the same time, the terrible news out of London, will this be the catalyst that sends the price of crude on a long term spiral downward? will this news prevent the Naz from confirming those last remaining tops with higher highs before heading south? the news hasn't changed my opinion that there are plenty of excesses that need to be worked out of all the markets, yet we still see that crude spiked up on the news at first, this just goes to show the type of sentiment you are dealing with right now, not just in the oil market, in many other markets too, the conditions are actually worse than they were during the tech bubble in many ways if you ask me, so my advice to you is to not be a trader, being a trader will surely get all of your gains eliminated when news comes out and you get trapped within the news, be safe, look for inefficiencies in the markets where prices are too high or too low, and then invest for the long term, BTW, I read your other post about K-bomb's radio show, K-bomb is saying that GT looks like a good buy?!!! please don't compare his technical work to mine ever again, his way of doing things is waaaaaaay different than mine |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| freeye |
| Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:44 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
grimreaper:
i really want to know. when is the best time to unwind the put on WMB?
isn't it when the price of oil is falling and so is the share price of all the oil stocks and particularly the stock of WMB?
i've never used puts before, but i may like to try a few virtual puts sometime.
thanks grimreaper!
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| I'm planning on holding my position in the Aug 17.50 puts until at least the strike price gets hit, the July 19.00 puts were hit hard yesterday as the last of the speculators drove WMB to yet another new high, but the Aug 17.50's stayed static at .20, I'm wreckin that if the damage to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of Himicane Dennis is less than expected you will see oil futures fall precipitously, and you will see the oil stocks fall too, the stocks were already showing signs of topping on Th, if we see more pronounced selling on Mon, then WMB might come close to hitting the 17.50 strike price in a single day, that's how overpriced it is and how badly the last buyers wanted in at any price, anyone who bought at 18.00 or above will bail in a hurry when it turns so I'm gettin giddy now that the national weather service is predicting that Dennis will not attain category 3 status again. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| freeye |
| Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:06 pm Post subject: Bob Brinker Issues a Buy Signal @ s&p 1100 & 1120! |
|
|
Investing Manager
|
7/09-10/05
these are some thoughts listeners to bob brinkers money talk radio had about last weeks show.
bob brinker interviewed pete pterson on his show this past week end.
bob brinker and pete peterson said the rich with low propensity to spend got the most of tax benefits under the bush tax cuts.
bob brinker and pete peterson had a deficit discussion.
both seemed to agree that they would cut out of the budget the prescription drug plan. this new entitlement was an unfortunate result of both presidential candidates making promises under the pressure of the upcoming election.
to talk of repealing it in the current climate would have no support from politicians attempting to get re-elected in the upcoming mid-term elections.
deficit has increased due to post-911 homeland security costs, the 2000-2002 recession, higher fuel costs etc.
bob and pete didn't discuss cuts to medicare, social security, education, or defense spending.
interview appeared to be totally non-confrontational with bob brinker pretending to be an 'independant".
special note: bob brinkers last 2 buy signals have been given at s&p 1100
& 1120 and there has been many opportunities for investors
to take advantage of these buying opportunities.
are you a listener to bob brinkers money talk radio show? has it been good for you investing life? all your comments are welcome here so feel free to vent them if the spirit moves you to do so.
freeye |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
stock market game on the web. At eInvesting you compete for monthly cash prizes while you interact, make virtual dollars, purchase items, and trade in the realistic stock market simulator. We make investing FUN!
