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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
 Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| prs1065 wrote: | | i think we will be ok when all the smoke clears |
Tautology. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:49 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:19 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Even though you say "mainstream," the prices of these stocks don't reflect triple-digit oil. Just about every pricing scenario I see involves oil being about $40/barrel.
Chevron, and now Exxon, are coming on board in saying that high prices are here to stay. I haven't seen any movement on the part of other oil majors to suggest the same. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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When I say mainstream, I'm referring to the media outlets carrying stories regarding peak oil and the ramifications of such. The more the story gets published by 'mainstream' media, the more traction the idea will get. Similar to Global Warming; back in the 90's people looked at you like you were crazy until they started reading more and more about it in the main media channels.
So far, the IEA has publicly stated that the demand supply balance will remain very tight through 2012 assuming that Saudi Aramco can deliver on its promises. And the EIA of the DOE is now forecasting average refinery cost for crude in 2008 above $68.
Personally, I expect that oil will trade at or above $100 by xmas '08 though it probably won't stay in the triple digit price range until 2009-2010 time frame.
Given that Morningstar and various banks are still predicting that the price will be in the low $50's by this time next year, I think the current price of the oils are a bargain. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Ah, you've touched a nerve.
Most of the time when something becomes celebrated in mainstream media, it has been completely overexaggerated and overdone. I think we are far away from that point with oil, for the time being. Right now the concerns are very superficial, so I don't think we are near the end of the oil run up.
Global warming on the other hand... I'm still not sold on it. I catch heat from everyone about my stance (and maybe a new thread should be opened for this), but I think global warming typifies what you see with politicalization of issues, and how the media picks up on that and runs with it. |
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| NCSUPAGE |
| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| I agree that oil will go up before it goes down in the long-term...not enough is currently invested in alternative vehicles to make a difference in the short-term, so they have to go up before down... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 1:16 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | Even though you say "mainstream," the prices of these stocks don't reflect triple-digit oil. Just about every pricing scenario I see involves oil being about $40/barrel.
Chevron, and now Exxon, are coming on board in saying that high prices are here to stay. I haven't seen any movement on the part of other oil majors to suggest the same. |
Tain't no biggie... yer TOL didn't reflect $250000 houses selling for $500000 either back in early 2006. I'm sure Earl will make the proper adjusto....just as home prices are now catchin up to the homebuilding stocks.  We just have to figure out when Gugs is gonna come along and say buy Warren Bafoon's COP like he did wit LEND n TOA. When Gug's sees "good value" in COP it will only need to git cut in half 2 more times!  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 2:07 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | Even though you say "mainstream," the prices of these stocks don't reflect triple-digit oil. Just about every pricing scenario I see involves oil being about $40/barrel.
Chevron, and now Exxon, are coming on board in saying that high prices are here to stay. I haven't seen any movement on the part of other oil majors to suggest the same. |
Tain't no biggie... yer TOL didn't reflect $250000 houses selling for $500000 either back in early 2006. I'm sure Earl will make the proper adjusto....just as home prices are now catchin up to the homebuilding stocks. We just have to figure out when Gugs is gonna come along and say buy Warren Bafoon's COP like he did wit LEND n TOA. When Gug's sees "good value" in COP it will only need to git cut in half 2 more times! |
Yep, just like I have been extremely bullish on the "mawkets" ever since you have been crying wolf over the past year and change! You were definitely right on the lenders and HB's, I'll give ya that my friend!!!
That being said, you have been way-off on this Bull Market (that I feel alone in calling, at least on this message board), and it will continue on for another couple years. Check the "chawts", stocks aren't coming back to 2003 levels before 2010....
How ya like that GOOG! You said it would sub $300 before it reached $550.... |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| There's no arguing with the Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens. Oil is going to $100 for sure. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:57 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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I suspect that we will see a correction in oil based on changes in demand prospects but it probably won't drop below ~$78/barrel. In the meantime, the current higher prices are pushing inflationary pressures as this article indicates
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BBB5FACF8%2DDF6E%2D4E7F%2DA19F%2DE9F952002268%7D
What the article fails to mention is the effect that higher oil prices has on the trade deficit which in turn effects value of the dollar relative to other currencies.
This is a lose-lose scenario for a Fed that wants to support economic expansion and fight inflation at the same time. Raising interest rates supports the dollar and fights inflation but risks recession, conversely, lowering interest rates will hike inflationary pressures and weaken the dollar while stimulating the economy.
The Fed will be sitting around trying to choose the lesser of evils. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 7:12 am Post subject: |
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