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| Jim Cramer's Mad Money - no link with cnbc or thestreet.com |
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| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Hey Freeye, the show comes on again one more time tonight to verify it, actually, I see it's on right now, but concerning the comment about at least one of the stocks going to zero, Cramer said it, if it was me I would have been a bit more truthful, remember the link I posted about his tech call in Jan 2000? 3 out of the 10 that were his top picks went to zero!  so to be more realistic he should have said that 30% of my speculative plays will end up being worthless based on past experience, and to be even more accurate he should have said that 80% of his buy and hold plays for the "nonspeculative accounts" will lose 50% of their value in the next 3 months  but he didn't, so I'll do my best to tell it like it is wherever there is a conversation concerning skeeedaddy Jimbo, I'm planning on updating the other board in regards to the remaining plays we are still trackin  |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2005 5:16 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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3 of 10 speculative stock picks still is reasonable for speculative money isn't it grimreaper? wouldn't one big winner out of the 7 pay for the 3 zeroed out positions and then some?
now you've piqued my curiousity where may i get the proof that;
"80% of his buy and hold plays for the "nonspeculative accounts" will lose
50% of their value in the next 3 months"
if it's at the link you gave before i may have missed it, and if it's not asking too much, could you direct me and others that may be reading along with us, where we may get the proof of this statement?
thanks grimreaper! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2005 5:29 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Hi Freeye, if you check the link again you will see that the other 7 ended up losing 50%+ before he threw in the towel, so no! in that case you lost your retirement by following ole Jimbo's advice, if you dig further into the link you will also find that Cramer put out the buy signal as the Fed did its first interest rate cut, at that time the Naz was trading at appx. 1650 and he said there was no way that it would see 1500, he recommended buying JDSU which was trading for over 30.00 at the time, when the Naz hit 1500 JDSU was then trading at 17.00  do I have proof about the 80%? no I don't, but I am a person who plays the odds, Cramer has consistantly shown that he is extremely poor at guaging the markets since I have followed him, I mentioned some of his examples (NT, SONS, CNXT, SCHN) when I first started posting at this site, will this time be any different? I doubt it, but it remains to be seen. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2005 5:53 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Freeye, here's another one that Cramer just loves and I'm sure he will have some commentary on tonight based on the mergers happening in the banking sector, MXT, Cramer thinks it will be going to 17.50 or something stupid like that, because he thinks the mergers in the banking industry means that the buying banks see good value in some of their competitors, in actuality it means that the bank stocks have become so inflated in price that the management teams of the buying companies are using investor money to take out a competitor, if they don't the cash will just go away when the stock prices start tumbling, and the opportunity will be lost, since there is no risk to taking advantage of investors this is why you see increased merger activity in the sector, interestingly enough, the high risk sector which involves banks who lend $$$ to people with questionable ability to pay is seeing the most interest, ACF, PVN, COF,and of course Cramer's MXT, keep an eye on MXT over the next few months so you will get yet another example of how terribly off Cramer's insights are, yesterday he knocked chart technicians, watch what investing on da funnymentals gets ya |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:01 am Post subject: JIM CRAMER'S STATS FROM FIRST WEEK OF MAD MONEY |
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Investing Manager
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Monday, March 14
Company name call % change to June 17 change in call
========== ========= ============= ==========
Disney buy until 3/28 -3.64% *
Toll Brothers sell -8.00% c/o 4/15 up 39%
St. Joe buy +11.50%
Genentech buy + 47.60%
ImClone sell -14.47%
Exxon Mobil buy -2.20% *
Cimarex buy -1.20% *
EnCana buy +17.80%
Kmart buy +17.90%
Viacom sell -0.80% c/o 3/15
Massey Energy sell -2.47%
Sapient sell +13.80% *
Lucent buy 0.00
Yahoo! buy +16.57%
RTI buy +23.8%
Apple buy -9.0% * c/o 5/02 +3.9%
Archer Daniels sell -13.9%
B.G. buy +12.11%
Sirius buy +12.50%
Elan sell -6.90%
Sears buy +17.80%
Sun Micro sell -11.10%
El Paso buy -2.90% *
Intellisync sell +12.68% *
Lyondell buy -18.90% *
CMGI buy + 3.80%
tuesday, 3/15/05
company name call % change to 6/17/05 change in call
========== ==== ============== ===========
J.P. Morgan buy +0.17%
Google! buy +54.30%
Yahoo buy +14.46%
Lehman Brothers buy +0.30%
Goldman Sachs buy -7.97% *
Ralcorp buy -14.92% *
eBay sell -08.00% c/o 03/23/05 +07.00%
Flextronics sell +07.40% *
GM sell -17.00% c/o 05/03/05 +13.00%
Ultra Petroleum buy +08.60%
KFx sell -14.90%
Microsoft sell +00.64% *
Analog Devices sell +05.18% *
Team, Inc. sell +06.70% *
Red Hat sell +22.00% *
Corning sell +20.27% * c/o 05/04/05 +22.90%
SBC Comm. sell +02.10% *
Hydrogenics sell -27.07%
Aastrom Bio. sell +06.50% *
Gander Mountain sell +06.10% *
Altria buy +02.80%
Cogent sell -10.99%
Yellow buy -15.48% * c/o 05/10/05 -02.50% *
TiVo sell +04.19% *
Quest sell -04.60%
Time Warner buy -06.60% * (trade)
Wednesday, 03/16/05
company name call % change to 6/17/05 change in call
========== ==== ============== ===========
General Motors sell +26.80% *
Toyota buy -06.60% *
DuPont buy -07.90% *
Dow buy -06.90% *
Viacom buy -07.80% *
Merck sell +02.84% *
JNJ buy -00.22% *
MRK sell +02.84% *
WYE sell +12.96% *
PFE sell +11.00% *
SGP sell +11.74% *
BMY sell +06.97% *
Annaly Mortgage buy +11.80%
Amilyn buy -00.25% *
Chesapeake buy +04.01%
Intl. Sec. Exchng sell -12.50%
Amrcn Hm Mrtge sell/buy NLY +13.21%
Ceridian sell +11.16% *
Symantec buy +03.31%
HlthCrePrprtyInv.buy +14.68%
XTO Energy buy +02.39%
SNN sell -04.14%
ZMH buy +00.84%
OMI Corp. buy +02.25% c/o 05/18/05 +01.20%*
Humana buy +13.80%
Valero buy +12.51%
Coach sell +15.75% *
Goodyear sell +07.80% *
BHP Biliton buy -04.50% *
Davita buy +09.52%
Time Warner buy -06.90% *
Mace Security sell -13.22%
AIG sell -12.27%
L-3 Comm. buy +00.61%
Caterpillar buy +02.11%
Schering-Plough buy +08.08%
Fluor buy +06.70%
Foster Wheeler buy -02.90% *
Halliburton buy +09.17%
Chevron Texaco buy -00.95% *
Premcor (PCO) buy +29.00%
Valero (VLO) buy +12.57%
Pepsi buy +07.22%
Thursday, 03/17/05
company name call % change to 6/17/05 change in call
========== ==== ============== ===========
Aetna buy +09.42%
Cigna buy +21.80%
Humana buy +14.70%
UnitedHealth buy +12.44%
J.P. Morgan buy +00.39%
Goldman Sachs buy -07.80% *
Lehman Brothers buy +00.24%
Morgan Stanley buy -08.50% *
Jabil sell +10.70% *
Nike buy +01.88%
PalmOne sell +03.70% * c/o 5/09 +12.00%
Overstock.com sell -14.84%
Urban Outfitters buy +22.85%
Intl. Game Tech. sell +08.80% *
Toro sell -02.70%
Black & Decker buy +09.21%
j2 Global sell -12.30%
Chicago Merctl. sell +31.40% *
Dynegy sell 14.83% ?
Barr Labs sell +03.50% *
eBay sell -08.00% c/o +07.00%
Las Vegas Sands buy -21.00% *
Ford sell -02.30%
Rite Aid sell +05.60% *
Goodyear Tire sell +08.90% *
Allied Capital sell +05.90% *
Abbott sell +11.45% *
Taser sell -16.64%
Fidlty Natl Fin. buy +08.24%
Lam Research sell/buy INTC +09.70%
Intel buy +16.00%
Toll Brothers sell +31.00% *
AIG sell -08.20%
Fannie Mae sell +10.53% *
Freddie Mac sell +04.10% *
PetroChina buy +10.70%
Kmart buy +22.80%
Mattel sell -10.00%
Hasbro sell 00.00%
Whole Foods buy +18.00%
Friday, 03/18/05
company name call % change to 6/17/05 change in call
========== ==== ============== ===========
Citibank sell +01.30% *
RKH (Index) buy +02.75%
Kmart buy +22.00%
J.C. Penney buy +16.10%
Walgreen buy +01.74%
UnitedHealth,(UNH)buy +12.30%
Johnson & Johnson buy -00.94% *
StemCells sell 00.00%
Biogen Idec buy -06.30% *
Xilinx sell -08.76%
Altera sell +10.00% *
Nvidia sell +11.62% *
RF Micro Devices sell -06.70%
Skyworks sell +11.69% *
Sirius buy +13.42%
Symantec buy +02.70%
DBB Industries sell -17.60%
7-Eleven buy +30.00%
IHOP buy +07.70%
Landstar System sell/buy (FDX) -15.00%
FedEx,(FDX) buy -10.00%
Ivanhoe sell -11.80%
Newmont Mining buy -11.20% *
Charter sell -21.16%
Sandisk sell -12.31%
Schwab buy 10.22% ?
InfoCrossing sell -24.90%
DuPont buy -09.22% *
Digital River sell -08.00%
Pioneer Drilling buy +18.00%
EMC sell 00.00% c/o +12.00%
Parker Drilling buy +15.60%
Viacom buy -08.50% *
Petrafund Energy buy +01.40%
Lucent buy 00.00%
Level 3 sell +04.07% *
Station Casinos buy +01.13%
Zeus sell -24.80%
Cameco buy -07.60% *
America Movil buy +11.10%
Jet Blue sell +26.70% *
Intuit buy +04.90%
Qualcomm buy -04.11% *
Procter & Gamble buy +02.06%
Disney buy -04.34% *
c/o = changed opinion
* = bad advice
note: these are jim cramer's numbers that he supplied through the free part of his website thestreet.com, go there if you want to see more on this table and his explanation of it.
here's the link, there's a simply registration to get to the free part of his site where there are many current and archived articles available.
https://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/freeMemberLoginB.jsp?flowid=918dbfd772&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fm%2Findex.html
jim cramer says his cnbc cable television show mad money record speaks for itself.
i'm just trying to figure out what it's saying.... by posting this here i hope we at eInvesting.com can sort it out... would be interested to see what you make of it... so post me a few lines on this or on the mad money television show.
freeye
Last edited by freeye on Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:45 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2005 12:13 pm Post subject: ANY INTEREST IN HAVING THE STATS BROKEN DOWN? |
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Investing Manager
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i'm thinking of breaking down the stats from the prior post on jim cramer's first week of broadcast of "mad money" cable show:
such as:
total number of sells that led to a loss..... a missed loss is a good loss
total number of sells that led to a profit... a missed profit is a bad profit
total number of buys that led to a loss..... any loss is a bad loss
total number of buys that led to a profit... any profit is a good profit
average missed loss due to a sell
average missed profit due to a sell
average loss on buys
average profit on buys
let me know here at this topic by leaving a post if you would like to see me post something like this.
freeye |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Freeye, howza bout we take a page right outta Jimbo's book and "not worry about where we've been, let's look at where we're goin" besides, the results he has posted are skewed right from the second one on the list, TOL, the fact is that he already had his flock in TOL when it was trading up in the 90's during the first peak of the double top, then Greenspan kept up the measured pace lingo and JC said to sell as TOL was trading in the upper 70's, so it is true that his call saved new buyers 8% as mentioned, but the ones who sold actually lost 15% if they listned to his original call to buy, and who's to say the 8% wasn't caused by the thousands of idiots who actually listen to this idiot?  his listeners would have obviously been much better served to just hold the line on his sell call being that TOL reversed within days and then moved on up to a new 52 week high at 107 let's just track the ones where we know his stance for sure, like GOOG for instance, if GOOG trades to sub 265 from here then even the people who bought the day after he said the selling was over will be in the red, right? right! of course all dem purty maps and stuff over at the GOOG site may forever keep this thing from seeing 265 again, but time will tell, and then Jimbo will tell, this time we won't let him skew the stats cause da Reaper will hold his feet to da fire, that's what I'm here for BTW, did you ever decide if those maps over there at GOOG will have any bearing on the price of the stock? thanks!  |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:48 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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grimreaper:
i'm just trying to hold jim cramer's feet to the fire just like you. so in that endeavor we are on the same side.
i've noted that you would like to see google, (GOOG) included in the evaluation, that begins today.
Q. is it fair to evaluate someone elses stock picking abilities by selectively
picking out the bad calls and mis-applying their disciplines?
the plan of the evaluation will take these things into consideration and from there we will be able to point at something that will standup to everyones scrutiny and either prove or disprove the value of following jim cramer's stock picking and portfolio management disciplines.
freeye |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:14 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Cramer is actually showing a gain on GOOG since his most recent buy call, so I don't see anything wrong with it, besides, GOOG, SHLD, and the energy stocks he is touting are all long term buy and hold plays per JC, the test will be to see where they are trading when he changes his stance from buy and hold to outright sell, that's why I chose these stocks in particular, most of Cramer's other calls are trading calls which just end up getting his flock whoop-sawed, like his call to buy TIBX at 7.25 and his call to buy MLNM at 9.20, eventually I imagine both of those will come up during the lighterning round on Mad Money as one of the fools who bought on JC's advice will be wondering what to do when they are down 20% on each, if he says sell at that point we'll give him credit for the trading loss |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:16 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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grimreaper said:
"Cramer is actually showing a gain on GOOG since his most recent buy
call, so I don't see anything wrong with it, besides, GOOG, SHLD, and the
energy stocks he is touting are all long term buy and hold plays per JC,"
"the test will be to see where they are trading when he changes his
stance from buy and hold to outright sell"
along with jim's stock picks he also teaches that every investor should have a discipline that they follow.
one rule of the discipline that jim teaches is "taking a little money off the table" when you have a profit.
so on a profitable long-term buy hold position that jim picks it really doesn't matter where jim cramer says to sell since an investor following his discipline has already taken his orginal investment off the table and then some.
so when you say "the test will be to see where they are trading when he
changes his stance from buy and hold to outright sell"
the test you propose is a good one but i'm struggling to see how it gives credit and accounts for the discipline aspect of jim cramer's teachings.
isn't it only fair to consider more than one single aspect of jim cramer's teachings?
freeye |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| That's true, he does say that, but as of tonight's show I haven't heard him say to sell any of the ones I am following, when he says to sell I will close the position completely like I did with CPN, then we will wait for the next buy call, I am doing this experiment to get a trader's eye view of things, when the time comes for JC to let go GOOG (for instance) completely it will be known by all how he did, his target for GOOG over the long term is 350.00, if it gets there he was correct, then we will tally up the returns on each of his buy/sell calls to see if it would have been better to just hold GOOG from 275, or trade it like he said to, it should be an interesting lesson about what happens to people who trade in and out, that's what Cramer wants you to do anyway, buy and homework! not buy and hold! we'll just make it easy on ourselves at let Jimbo do da homework for us! cool huh? BTW, when it comes time to buy TIBX and MLNM I will make my buy call and we'll see how I did with my strategy vs Cramer's, I'm not sure I will still be alive when it comes time to buy HAL, DUK, SHLD, or GOOG! |
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| jumbojack |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Hey JJ, if Cramer doesn't follow his own trading rules then why should I? you heard him mention NT tonight if you saw the show, not only did he fail to recognize that the train was off da track, he added to his position on the way down before he finally bailed at 3.00, that's according to him of course, now his latest stance on NT is not to buy until armagheddon happens, then wait three days, if I didn't know that NT was gonna be a sub 1.00 stock again I might just buy cause he said sell, but I do, so I guess I'll just wait |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:15 pm Post subject: Did Jim Cramer Break One of his Own trading Rules? |
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Investing Manager
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grimreaper:
i'm with jumbojack on this one grimreaper.
which one of his own trading rules do you think jim cramer broke?
freeye |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:36 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| The rule he broke with NT is pretty obvious, take the weekend to see if you can figure it out |
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