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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 11:39 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15199.04 e$
Net worth: 126,667.04
Portfolio Value: 111,468.00
Monthly Return: -6.81%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Try Shorting TRY
I sold Triarc Companies (TRY) today at $14.52. Triarc is the owner of the Arby's fast food chain. I got my idea from a trip to Arby's over the weekend.
For whatever reason, I had a craving for a Beef & Cheddar sandwich. After pulling up to the drive thru, I figured I'd order two Beef & Cheddars and large cheese fries (yes, it came back to haunt me later). Anyways, I didn't even order a drink and the total for the fries and two sandwiches was $9.72! You can go to a decent sit-down restaurant and get a better price on dinner than that. So, I gladly paid for my order and went home to research the company that owns Arby's (maybe I'll make back my $9.72?).
After finding the ticker symbol (TRY), I looked at some key stats for the stock and company. TRY has barely been breaking even, and at times losing money despite the exorbitant prices they charge for their fast food (not very good news). The company has a Current Ratio of 0.97, which means their Current Liabilities exceed their Current Assets. Despite these two obvious reasons to short the stock, there is only a 1% short interest in the shares. Therefore, you will not be caught in the dreaded short squeeze if a short sell is placed on TRY. For the last 12 months, TRY has a negative 4% ROE, which is horrible considering the high price of their food.
As always, be careful when shorting stocks. It is difficult to figure out what will happen today, tomorrow, and beyond. I do not recommend that you buy or sell any stocks solely based on my recommendations. You should do your own research and use other people's ideas as a way to help unearth other possible choices.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| admin85 |
| Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
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| Thanks for your information... |
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| prs1065 |
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:07 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Sep 2007
Posts: 230
This Month: 0
263.79 e$
Net worth: 30,669.49
Portfolio Value: 30,405.70
Monthly Return: -9.52%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15199.04 e$
Net worth: 126,667.04
Portfolio Value: 111,468.00
Monthly Return: -6.81%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Yeah, just wait for the markets to peak again. TRY will be a great short once again... |
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| admin85 |
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
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| when do u think the markets to peak again??? |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15199.04 e$
Net worth: 126,667.04
Portfolio Value: 111,468.00
Monthly Return: -6.81%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| When I say "peak", I mean short-term much like the recent "peak" by the markets in August. I would guess that the markets run-up until late April of 2008 before making another correction. The recent correction and swirling markets created a wonderful base to build a substantial rally... |
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| admin85 |
| Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 7:58 am Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
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| oic... thanks for ur references...... and helping me much... |
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| linh3203 |
| Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 10 Sep 2007
Posts: 40
This Month: 0
1965.67 e$
Net worth: 10,297.62
Portfolio Value: 4,856.95
Monthly Return: 0.33%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| never ate at arby's in my life doesnt seem appealing... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:36 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15199.04 e$
Net worth: 126,667.04
Portfolio Value: 111,468.00
Monthly Return: -6.81%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I bought Cutera (CUTR) at $26.59 today and covered my short in Triarc (TRY) at $13.20 (for an 8% gain). I still think TRY is one of the better risk/reward short sale candidates available. However, I stumbled upon Cutera (CUTR) and decided to pounce on the stock as it seems to be a pretty nice buy at these levels.
Here is why I like CUTR:
Let's start with the Fundamentals. CUTR makes lasers that treat skin imperfections due to aging, etc. As Baby-Boomers continue to age, demand "should" increase for the company's products.
Secondly, a measure of the stock's Valuations, etc is in order. CUTR sports an attractive PEG ratio of 0.83 (which is pretty darn low). In most instances, buying stocks with PEG ratios below 1.00 can yield excellent results (but not always, of course!). CUTR also has a Return on Equity (ROE) of 13%, which I found encouraging. Another important valuation consideration is the amount of debt a company has on its Balance Sheet. CUTR is actually debt-free and has over $100 million in cash.
Another key stat I like to look at is Short Interest (the percentage of the tradeable shares that are sold short). CUTR has a short interest that is over 13% (as of August 10th, 2007). These short sellers must buy the stock in the future in order to close out their positions, which will create further demand for CUTR.
The Technical Indicators for the stock are also encouraging. CUTR looks to be breaking out of its recent downtrend. I expect (and hope) CUTR will reach the high $30's in 6-12 months based on the above analysis, and the technical chart pattern.
Finally, I like CUTR because of the Diversification the stock offers. Many patients who recieve "cosmetic surgery" are usually more affluent. This demographic will not be affected by the economy as much as other demographics will (such as the middle class and poor).
I expect CUTR to be a volatile investment, but patience should pay off. Please do your own research and let me know what you think... |
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| admin85 |
| Posted: Mon Sep 24, 2007 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:58 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15199.04 e$
Net worth: 126,667.04
Portfolio Value: 111,468.00
Monthly Return: -6.81%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to take profits in Force Protection (FRPT) today at $24.10 for a 25% gain in a little more than a week. I still like the stock, and may buy again on a pull-back.
With the proceeds from the sale, I bought Travelzoo (TZOO) at $24. Here are the reasons I like the stock:
-Company is growing revenues and earnings.
-TZOO has been rumoured to be bought-out.
-The stock has a 20% short interest.
-TZOO has excellent margins.
-Company has zero debt, and $42 million in cash on the Balance Sheet!
-The technical indicators look encouraging for the stock to move up considerably.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 11:14 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15199.04 e$
Net worth: 126,667.04
Portfolio Value: 111,468.00
Monthly Return: -6.81%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to take profits in Taser International (TASR) at $18.10 for a 25% gain in a couple months, and sold Triarc (TRY) short at $14.10. TASR will remain on my radar, and I will likely buy the stock again on a pull-back. TRY seems to be a wonderful short at these levels. Check previous posts on this thread as to why I think TRY is short-worthy...
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15199.04 e$
Net worth: 126,667.04
Portfolio Value: 111,468.00
Monthly Return: -6.81%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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If you look at my last post, I sold Taser International (TASR) at $18.10 less than a week ago and sold TRY short at $14.10. I decided to cover my short in TRY at $13.60 (for a measely 3% gain) and used the funds to repurchase TASR at an attractive price. TRY is still a great short opportunity, especially above $14 (in my opinion). I saw a better opportunity in establishing a long position in TASR instead. As the markets swooned today, TASR was unfairly beaten down by more than 6% and tempted me to buy again (for a 7% discount from my sale a week ago).
I really like TASR at these levels. As a valuation play, TASR is definitely not attractive. However, if you take into consideration the future growth for the company, you will also see the potential. TASR has recently started to penetrate the global market for its products ("stun guns"). I believe that foreign governments will ramp up their demand for Taser's products over the next 6-12 months (especially since many governments discourage police from reacting with firearms, most notably the French).
TASR is a bullish trading vehicle. I suggest that you do your own research on the company and stock. Plot out the peaks and valleys for TASR and buy the dips.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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