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| GUG's HOT BUYS |
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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | gugaplex wrote: | AGIX could be a winner, especially at the levels you recommend. However, I like to buy similar stocks that have high short interests like AGIX, but with upward-trending charts and positive news.
Losing money is part of the game. The trick is to lose as little as possible (in terms of your total holdings). Luckily I have my biggest gains in holdings that were a large portion of my portfolio. The losses I have are 5-8% of holdings that I have dumped in the past month or so. I like to "trade" with a longer-term horizon, and am lucky to be spanking the S&P by over 15% this year. This may not be spectacular, but if I could do this every year I would be a wonder on Wall Street.
Most importantly, I would retire by the age of 40... |
Sheeeyot...doan feel bad. I "am" da mawkets....plus I'm a confirmed sooper hero. Unfortunuttly fer me, fokes wit my unbaleavable talunts aren't welcomed on Wall St.  I'm wreckin they may find room fer me after I eliminate Cramer, da fast Muny Flunkies (including drama queen and head flunkie  Dylan Rats!...I lost again!) and I make Larry Krudlow see dat Goldilox is a slut like Paris Hilton n Pamela Anderson. We do luv our supersluts though...don't we?  Ya want I should put sum tig bitties on dat PDEX thingy fer ya?  |
Please do Market Master, I would love it if PDEX would spike to the $2's. Work your magic all mighty one... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:39 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Grimreaper wrote: | | gugaplex wrote: | AGIX could be a winner, especially at the levels you recommend. However, I like to buy similar stocks that have high short interests like AGIX, but with upward-trending charts and positive news.
Losing money is part of the game. The trick is to lose as little as possible (in terms of your total holdings). Luckily I have my biggest gains in holdings that were a large portion of my portfolio. The losses I have are 5-8% of holdings that I have dumped in the past month or so. I like to "trade" with a longer-term horizon, and am lucky to be spanking the S&P by over 15% this year. This may not be spectacular, but if I could do this every year I would be a wonder on Wall Street.
Most importantly, I would retire by the age of 40... |
Sheeeyot...doan feel bad. I "am" da mawkets....plus I'm a confirmed sooper hero. Unfortunuttly fer me, fokes wit my unbaleavable talunts aren't welcomed on Wall St. I'm wreckin they may find room fer me after I eliminate Cramer, da fast Muny Flunkies (including drama queen and head flunkie Dylan Rats!...I lost again!) and I make Larry Krudlow see dat Goldilox is a slut like Paris Hilton n Pamela Anderson. We do luv our supersluts though...don't we? Ya want I should put sum tig bitties on dat PDEX thingy fer ya? |
Please do Market Master, I would love it if PDEX would spike to the $2's. Work your magic all mighty one... |
Well, I'd honestly try n help ya wit PDEX but ta be honest witcha....I gots bigger problums ta take care ov. Who do you think is gonna rescue NFI? Let's look at dat situation. It got purt near taken out to da woodshed once...then rose like a phoenix on the wings ov LEND......which was of course was such a great investment at $10 (it had trippled off the 3.50 low) that a hege fund idiot had to come along and use somma the piles of werthless free muny he had amassed to put in a bid! That hedgies reasoning? "Hey, what to heck am I gonna do with $394857203948547 U.S. dollars that I got by accident just cause Dubya kept da pump runnin?...I know!....I'll do like the Chinese!....I'll pay waaaay too much for sumthin that is gonna lose 90% of its value just so's I kin has sumthin!"  Of course Johnny "nads" Nadsjerian saw LEND and put da buys ta NFI at 9.50...and yes...it looks like his call didn hurt ya too much cause NFI is still trading 9.60. Of course a 9.60 handle on NFI means ya paid $35+. I realize yer in deep doo doo wit PDEX. But fo me ta rescue it that would be like me rescuing SHLD and K-mart. I mean c'mon!...there's 5 freakin sheeple in the store! But wit da above esssplanayshun....you kin see just how tough it is to be a superhero. So now I gotsta rescue both NFI and AHM, IMH, CFHI, HMB,... all dem...or else!  So ifn ya wanna see majic...keep yer eye on NFI as a long term play, AHM as a WOWSA! trade.  Being a sooper hero does have its reward however. Sit back and think about the fact that you don't have to worry if Earl hits $80 dallahs...or even $100 dallahs....you will still be paying $2.50 er less fer reggy at da pump by laber day. You get a nice waaaaarm n comfy feeling thinkin bout dat....don'tcha? Knowin I make ya feel good makes me feel good! |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Six Flags (SIX) is a great short, but I decided to take profits today at $5.51 to avoid standing in the way of a short squeeze. I was able to gain 7% in less than a week, and saw an even better short opportunity in MRU Holdings (UNCL). |
Ohhhhhhh Gugs, you're killing me. I thought the great consensus here was that Six Flags is awful and hence you would short it into the ground?
SIX, down 15% today to close at $3.25... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | gugaplex wrote: | | Six Flags (SIX) is a great short, but I decided to take profits today at $5.51 to avoid standing in the way of a short squeeze. I was able to gain 7% in less than a week, and saw an even better short opportunity in MRU Holdings (UNCL). |
Ohhhhhhh Gugs, you're killing me. I thought the great consensus here was that Six Flags is awful and hence you would short it into the ground?
SIX, down 15% today to close at $3.25... |
Yep, another case of me getting out of a position too early. I guess it is better than being too late. I was actually hoping that SIX would rebound a bit so I could short at higher levels, but instead it just kept on falling. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Shorted the Ultra Short (SDS) @ $57.15 & Covered UNCL @ $4.75
Well I definitely covered my shares in UNCL today too early. It actually plummeted to $3.91 at one point. I covered at $4.75 for a 5% gain, mainly because I feel the market is near the end of its correction and I was afraid of a rebound in UNCL's shares. Shorting the ProShares Ultra Short S&P500 ETF (SDS) seemed like a no-brainer. SDS trades inversely to the S&P500, by 2x's the percentage move. Therefore, if the S&P500 increases by 1%, SDS will decline by 2%. I could have purchased the Proshares Ultra S&P500 ETF (SSO) which is correlated with the S&P500, whereby a 1% increase will provide a 2% gain for SSO. The reason I chose to short the Ultra Short is because I did not want to use margin to capture gains from a rebounding market. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:55 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Sold ISOT at $7 and Bought HMB at $0.38
I took a loss of 27% today by selling ISOT. The stock is still attractive in my opinion, but I felt I could do better by being in more liquid stocks. ISOT has a cutting-edge product (bone growth enhancing material) that will likely make them a buyout candidate. Holding the stock felt like watching paint dry, and I feel there are better returns by finding stocks that will move more significantly over the short-term.
I decided to buy HomeBanc (HMB) at $0.38 as a pure speculation-play. The stock may increase substantially from this tradeable bottom, but could also go bankrupt. The possible risk is why I only bought a small amount in regards to my total holdings.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| BobbySeals |
| Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
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| gugaplex wrote: | Sold ISOT at $7 and Bought HMB at $0.38
I took a loss of 27% today by selling ISOT. The stock is still attractive in my opinion, but I felt I could do better by being in more liquid stocks. ISOT has a cutting-edge product (bone growth enhancing material) that will likely make them a buyout candidate. Holding the stock felt like watching paint dry, and I feel there are better returns by finding stocks that will move more significantly over the short-term.
I decided to buy HomeBanc (HMB) at $0.38 as a pure speculation-play. The stock may increase substantially from this tradeable bottom, but could also go bankrupt. The possible risk is why I only bought a small amount in regards to my total holdings.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
Gug,
I'm so sad for you and I on HMB and HRSH boy we took some Heavy Losses, but that is ok I will still keep on listening to you, Warren and Grimster......
Oh yeah Warren you were so right about Jones Soda so over price...I'm so glad i sold at the top of the Mountain instead in the Valley
Much Love Fellas,
Josiah |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:48 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Covered NEM @ $40.20 and Shorted SDS @ $57.25
I decided to take a small gain in Newmont Mining (NEM) by covering my short at $40.20 and selling SDS short at $57.25. Staying with my belief that the correction is nearly over (with possible downside risk for the S&P500 at 1400), I decided to short SDS to take advantage of a rebounding market. I still believe that NEM is a good short at these levels, but saw a better opportunity in shorting SDS instead.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2007 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| BobbySeals wrote: | | Oh yeah Warren you were so right about Jones Soda so over price...I'm so glad i sold at the top of the Mountain instead in the Valley |
While I'm glad to see a bit of rationality returning to JSDA, I'm happy you managed to make a nice profit and get out at the top. Nice timing on your part there...  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Sold HMB @ $0.14 Today
Well my "gambling" certainly did not pay-off. I decided to sell my HMB (HMBN.pk) at $0.14 and take a 63% loss! Because this trade was meant to be a speculative move, I only risked 2% of my total holdings. The loss still hurts, but I learned another valuable lesson.
During the recent market turbulence (which is making folks sick to their stomachs, whether they are long or short), I have trimmed the number of assets I am long or short to seven from ten/eleven. This move provides much better control of my portfolio, and still allows for diversification.
Despite the loss in HMB today, I had a pretty good day. The churning market looks to be putting in a bottom, and my larger long plays are finally reflecting this. I really think that the Bears are going to be screwed if they think that this is the end of the Bull Market. However, considering that I am only out-performing the S&P500 by 5% thus far in 2007, don't bank on my opinions (do your OWN research).
My Current Holdings:
Macy's (M)= 24% (average purchase price of $41.37).
OmniVision Tech (OVTI)= 19% (purchase price of $17.74).
Taser International (TASR)= 17% (purchase price of $14.50).
Syntax-Brillian (BRLC)= 14% (purchase price of $5.95).
Pro-Dex (PDEX)= 14% (purchase price of $1.61).
Aspreva Pharma (ASPV)= 12% (purchase price of $20.40).
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SHORT SDS @ $57.20 which comprises 24% of long holdings.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | Sold HMB @ $0.14 Today
Well my "gambling" certainly did not pay-off. I decided to sell my HMB (HMBN.pk) at $0.14 and take a 63% loss! Because this trade was meant to be a speculative move, I only risked 2% of my total holdings. The loss still hurts, but I learned another valuable lesson.
During the recent market turbulence (which is making folks sick to their stomachs, whether they are long or short), I have trimmed the number of assets I am long or short to seven from ten/eleven. This move provides much better control of my portfolio, and still allows for diversification.
Despite the loss in HMB today, I had a pretty good day. The churning market looks to be putting in a bottom, and my larger long plays are finally reflecting this. I really think that the Bears are going to be screwed if they think that this is the end of the Bull Market. However, considering that I am only out-performing the S&P500 by 5% thus far in 2007, don't bank on my opinions (do your OWN research).
My Current Holdings:
Macy's (M)= 24% (average purchase price of $41.37).
OmniVision Tech (OVTI)= 19% (purchase price of $17.74).
Taser International (TASR)= 17% (purchase price of $14.50).
Syntax-Brillian (BRLC)= 14% (purchase price of $5.95).
Pro-Dex (PDEX)= 14% (purchase price of $1.61).
Aspreva Pharma (ASPV)= 12% (purchase price of $20.40).
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SHORT SDS @ $57.20 which comprises 24% of long holdings.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
Oh maaaaan! Sorry I'll be leavin witout ya as I doubled into HMBN taday at .10! Terned a crappy trade into a 20% gain in IMH in 3 days or less too. I'll be back at datn. What's the new trading symbol fo PDEX? I can't even git a chawt on datn no mo. Never mind...I checked Yahoo finance and see it's still trading. I guess it might be too crappy ta git a chawt? Oh yeah, regarding HMBN....purty kewel the way they passed sum bad loans off on Anthony Mozillo and his scam ova company CFC....ainna?  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Bought a Smidge of Dendreon (DNDN) at $8.90
I bought Dendreon (DNDN) after hours on news of their phase one clinical results of Neuvenge, a breast cancer drug. DNDN has also been in the news for its prostate cancer drug, Provenge. Both of these diseases affect millions of people. DNDN reached $25 per share when investors were piling into the stock based on positive FDA news for Provenge. The FDA then asked for more info from further clinical results of Provenge, which sent the shares reeling to the single digits.
DNDN has been very volatile, and has not traded in lock-step with the market (which may be a good thing). With a 50% short interest in the stock, there will be further price swings in the future that will yield nice profits for longs and shorts. Based on the recent news (which may not be as positive as thought), I believe that the next big move for the stock will be higher over the next 3-6 months. Considering the speculative nature of DNDN, I decided to only risk a small portion of my portfolio in the stock (about 10%).
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:49 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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I'm not a fan of DNDN, I still associate it too much with senseless trading frenzies.
Yesterday it was announced that McDade at PDLI is out, and the stock is up nicely following that. The stock is a great speculative play... I can't think of a better one in the market right now. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2007 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Bought ABIX at $6.73 Today...
I know what everyone is thinking right now. Why the heck would I buy this stock given the recent voluntary de-listing news? ABIX is a micro-cap stock, that is fundamentally a healthy company. They have stable earnings considering the lack of hurricanes during the past two years (and who knows how many storms will come next year considering the volatility of the past 5 years). ABIX also has a Book Value of $7.20 per share, therefore the stock is trading at 0.93 x's Book.
The main reason why the company decided to de-list is due to the high costs of the Sarbanes-Oxley requirements placed on such a small company. Of course the news is not good, but I do not believe it warrants the stock to trade under Book Value.
Here is a link to info regarding small co's de-listing due to high costs related to meeting Sarb-Ox requirements:
http://www.law.com/jsp/ihc/PubArticleIHC.jsp?id=1154509535896
Please, do not wager a large portion of your portfolio on this stock if you choose to invest. The worst could happen for the company, but I feel that ABIX is stable enough to ride out the hurricane drought and start "churning" profits once things get back to normal. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:51 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Aspreva Could Make You a Believa
Sorry, I know the title is lame. Aspreva Pharmaceuticals(ASPV) is a pretty rare find. I am going to pitch this stock as best I can by starting with all of the positives, and the one big negative to follow.
The Positives for ASPV:
-ASPV is in the healthcare industry (pharma), which suggests more stable earnings.
-Forward P/E of 4.01 (pretty darn low).
-ZERO DEBT!
-Lots of cash. Over $9 per share ($324 million).
-PEG ratio of 0.23 (are you kidding me?).
-ROE of 42%.
-YOY EPS growth of 36%.
-Short Interest of nearly 10%.
The Big Negative for ASPV:
-ASPV currently has only one drug that creates revenue. The drug (Cellcept) is actually created by Roche, and ASPV found a different use for it (to fight Lupus, etc). The company avoids hefty R&D costs by finding new uses for existing drugs, thereby creating licensing agreements with the company that holds the patent. If ASPV can't come up with another drug/deal soon, the future will look pretty bleak. However, ASPV has reported that they are working on several options and will make a calculated decision that is best for the company. Luckily, ASPV has zero debt and a large lump of cash just in case...
Today the stock is at $19.35, if/when ASPV strikes another alliance with a differnet drug-maker it should move to $30 or more. In the short-term, ASPV may stay range-bound... |
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