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| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:00 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | Made Some Big Moves Today
Like I said before, a strong market correction is likely on the horizon. In order to clue everyone in on what I did today in one post versus many individual ones, I will give quick-takes below:
-Sold InsWeb (INSW) at $7.20 for a whopping 5% gain (in 3 months).
-Bought more Macy's (M) at $42.39, due to buyout speculation.
-Sold Broadcom (BRCM) at $33.00 for an 8% gain (in 5 weeks).
-Sold Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) at $6.85 for a 27% gain (in 1 week).
-Bought QID (an ETF that shorts the QQQQ) at $41.00.
-Sold Short Baidu (BIDU) at $195, betting on a nice market correction.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
First ov all...congrats on anudder wise decision to take a profut in BRLC. I am just happy to know you won't be able to blame your misfortunes on me next time....ifn she terns n berns that is.   Anyhoo, I meant what I said to ya bout you becoming a muuuuch better trader. BIG improvement. All ya gotsta werk on is pickin the right stocks. And buying a stock like BRLC (which is in a confirmed downtrend) on a mojo MOMO spike ainna the way ta do it.  I doubt you can play the seckter that led to yer early demise....housing. It is only down about 20% from where it was when Dubya B. called bottom. Luckily for him I am gonna kick da butts of da commodititty pigs which should give housing a chance. So get ready to BOOWOOHOO Dubya B.  Check out this POS  HMB....at or balow .70 centavos...but not less than .60.  You will not believe where BIDU ends up....I mean down... and 2)you will probly sell outta QID too early....those are sum future purrdixhsuns about ya. But hey!...yer still lernin! |
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| lhutch |
| Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 9:20 am Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 10 May 2007
Posts: 38
This Month: 0
11338.07 e$
Net worth: 11,338.07
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return: 0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| gugaplex wrote: | Today I purchased shares of Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH) because the stock is incredibly cheap.
Here are the numbers for IMH:
Price to Book = 0.61
PEG Ratio = 0.68
P/E Ratio = 7
Dividend Yield = 10.3% (but may lower dividend)
Profit Margin = 64%
Return on Equity = 23%
I think the real estate market will rebound from the doom and gloom scenario that is sweeping the markets. Even if things do not improve significantly, IMH is being treated by Wall Street as if they are going out of business (due to the extremely low Price/Book Ratio). |
As a RE Investor and a holder of REIT, I'm thrilled you think the market is going to rebound... What are you basing that on?
Liz |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Six Flags (SIX) is a great short, but I decided to take profits today at $5.51 to avoid standing in the way of a short squeeze. I was able to gain 7% in less than a week, and saw an even better short opportunity in MRU Holdings (UNCL). MRU stands for "MyRichUncle". The company originates private student loans. Taking a look at the company's yearly income statements, you will see that they are increasing their losses each year.
With such a dismal financial future, one would expect the stock to have a very high short interest. However, UNCL has only 2% of the float short. Therefore, the stock is a pretty good short that will not cause a sudden squeeze to threaten your position.
I should be sitting tight for a while with my current holdings. The last week has been pretty busy, and I am ready to settle into my new positions for a bit.
Best of luck to ALL... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| I noticed SIX coming across the top of the screen on losing stocks today... very nice timing jumping back in on that. You've been right on the ball over the past few months, just don't let it go to your head. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:42 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | I noticed SIX coming across the top of the screen on losing stocks today... very nice timing jumping back in on that. You've been right on the ball over the past few months, just don't let it go to your head. |
Thanks Warren, however it is hard to let it go to my head when I had such a "great" feeling about TOA, IMH, and NEW earlier in the year... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:45 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | I noticed SIX coming across the top of the screen on losing stocks today... very nice timing jumping back in on that. You've been right on the ball over the past few months, just don't let it go to your head. |
I obviously haven't bin as right becuz about 6 weeks ago I said the chit in nicely wrapped packages that BSC, LEH, and da king ov  GS were pushin off to the idiots looking for a "safe way" to earn 25% a year would eventually catch up to da crooks on Wall St. Sheeeyot!....I'm outta breath! Anyhoo, 6 weeks ago this chit wasn't obvious, dat's why I was wrong. I want you to paaahrooz the after ours news on somma da chit that was passed off as good by the money runnin crooks!...whose top dawgs are now paying $140 million for a plot ov dirt in da Hamptons....which is gonna git wiped clear ov vegitayshun anyhoo becuz greed NEVER goes unpunished...so the herricane da Earl idiots are expecting WILL materialize....but it will wipe out da Hamptons!  Purty kewel what you kin lern watchin da chawts....ainna?  BTW, spekkin o'da chawts, you can check out the DMI on OVTI and you will see that it is "strugglin" to re-establish an uptrend...the posi +Di line can't even give a reading of 40 a go, and +Di reading of 40 is the foist "baby step" it gonna need ta take....fahgettabout da ADX line.  Gugs may wanna throw a chort agin OVTI ta git back the estreee 10% I cost him! |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 11:40 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Well, I wanted to sit tight for a little while with my holdings, but I just couldn't pass-up a 10% gain in my UNCL short since initiating the position on Friday 7/20. Otherwise, I would have held for a bit longer. UNCL is still an excellent short, and I will likely jump on the stock again if it moves a little higher.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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With the increasing volatility of the markets, I have made more trades than I would normally like to make. However, these trades should pay-off in the next month or two:
-Covered Baidu (BIDU) @ $178 (for a 9% gain in 3 trading days).
-Bought more Macy's (M) @ $42.
-Covered First Solar (FSLR) @ 113 (for a 7% loss).
-Bought more QID @ 41.85 (betting on a further correction).
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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What a day on Wall Street! The markets sold-off big time, and rebounded a bit at the end of the day. My recent posts have warned investors of an impending correction, and I think we are about 70% through that move.
If you have read my articles in the past, it is obvious that I am bullish long-term. I still believe that the markets will hold their upward trend, but may still correct a bit more during the next couple weeks.
I was very busy once again today. Due to my belief that the correction is close to an end, I made the following moves:
-Covered short in DECK @ $97 (for a 4% gain).
-Sold QID @ $43.50 (for a 5% gain).
-Bought OVTI @ $17.74 (valuations, positive news, and HIGH short interest).
-Bought BRLC @ $5.94 (valuations, positive news, and HIGH short interest).
Waiting in cash may be a good bet here, but folks who are placing bearish bets on the general markets (especially tech) will be very disappointed in my opinion.
The Bull Market is very much alive, and will reap havoc on the Bears that may over-extend their bets. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Waiting in cash may be a good bet here, but folks who are placing bearish bets on the general markets (especially tech) will be very disappointed in my opinion. |
Geb and I had been rehashing our fair value targets for the big names in the Nasdaq 100 about two weeks ago, and after a big of work (to say the least) he made the top call for tech and loaded up on QID... on July 19th. Go check your charts.
A short article on why to buy QID, and you can also check the valuations of the top 10 holdings of the QQQQ. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| I agree that QID is a decent play here, but should be sold very soon. This move is looking much more like the one from February, short and sweet. The correction last year was based on "recession" predictions that did not come true (in the time frame predicted by the bears). This "credit crunch" will also be short-lived (in my humble opinion)... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:18 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I sold some of my losers today, in order to offset my taxable gains and better position myself for a rebound.
-Sold Nanogen (NGEN) @ $1.38 (for a 19% loss).
-Sold Hirsch International (HRSH) @ $3.55 (for a 19% loss).
-Sold Bluegreen (BXG) @ $9.00 (for a 27% loss).
-Bought Taser International (TASR) @ $14.50 (based on recent positive news and HIGH short interest).
-Sold short Newmont Mining (NEM) @ $41.05 (betting on weakness in gold prices and the stock).
Luckily, the losses I took were in stocks that made up smaller portions of my portfolio. I still believe BXG and HRSH are good long-term investments, and they will have their days in the sun eventually. NGEN was a speculative bet that made up about 3% of my holdings. NGEN could fly to $3-4, or plummet to zero. Either way, I was simply impatient with the performance of the stock and decided to move on.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:00 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | I sold some of my losers today, in order to offset my taxable gains and better position myself for a rebound.
-Sold Nanogen (NGEN) @ $1.38 (for a 19% loss).
-Sold Hirsch International (HRSH) @ $3.55 (for a 19% loss).
-Sold Bluegreen (BXG) @ $9.00 (for a 27% loss).
-Bought Taser International (TASR) @ $14.50 (based on recent positive news and HIGH short interest).
-Sold short Newmont Mining (NEM) @ $41.05 (betting on weakness in gold prices and the stock).
Luckily, the losses I took were in stocks that made up smaller portions of my portfolio. I still believe BXG and HRSH are good long-term investments, and they will have their days in the sun eventually. NGEN was a speculative bet that made up about 3% of my holdings. NGEN could fly to $3-4, or plummet to zero. Either way, I was simply impatient with the performance of the stock and decided to move on.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
I'm sick ov seeing you lose muny! Here...try thisn AGIX. Now at 1.60 and gettin ready to signal buy. It'll be bullish ifn it sells off. I'm thinkin 1.35-1.40. Whata you thinkin? Ahhh...never mind. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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AGIX could be a winner, especially at the levels you recommend. However, I like to buy similar stocks that have high short interests like AGIX, but with upward-trending charts and positive news.
Losing money is part of the game. The trick is to lose as little as possible (in terms of your total holdings). Luckily I have my biggest gains in holdings that were a large portion of my portfolio. The losses I have are 5-8% of holdings that I have dumped in the past month or so. I like to "trade" with a longer-term horizon, and am lucky to be spanking the S&P by over 15% this year. This may not be spectacular, but if I could do this every year I would be a wonder on Wall Street.
Most importantly, I would retire by the age of 40... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | AGIX could be a winner, especially at the levels you recommend. However, I like to buy similar stocks that have high short interests like AGIX, but with upward-trending charts and positive news.
Losing money is part of the game. The trick is to lose as little as possible (in terms of your total holdings). Luckily I have my biggest gains in holdings that were a large portion of my portfolio. The losses I have are 5-8% of holdings that I have dumped in the past month or so. I like to "trade" with a longer-term horizon, and am lucky to be spanking the S&P by over 15% this year. This may not be spectacular, but if I could do this every year I would be a wonder on Wall Street.
Most importantly, I would retire by the age of 40... |
Sheeeyot...doan feel bad. I "am" da mawkets....plus I'm a confirmed sooper hero. Unfortunuttly fer me, fokes wit my unbaleavable talunts aren't welcomed on Wall St. I'm wreckin they may find room fer me after I eliminate Cramer, da fast Muny Flunkies (including drama queen and head flunkie Dylan Rats!...I lost again!) and I make Larry Krudlow see dat Goldilox is a slut like Paris Hilton n Pamela Anderson. We do luv our supersluts though...don't we? Ya want I should put sum tig bitties on dat PDEX thingy fer ya? |
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