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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2007 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Bought Tech/Ops Sevcon @ $9.24 Today
In my pursuit to find small cap stocks that are under-valued, Tech/Ops Sevcon certainly foots the bill.
TO is an attractive investment due to several reasons. The most important is that the company is executing nicely by growing earnings, while having virtually zero debt.
Another important aspect of TO is that the company is not as dependent on the economy as other stocks may be.
Also, with the low share float for TO, good news will send shares sky-high. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2007 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Gugs,
Why TO and not a similar stock like MCRL or SUPX? I think the latter is an especially compelling financial comparison, but this is all just taken from the quant model... and partially to make the contrarian call on Goldman's semiconductor analyst. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2007 1:45 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Warren,
I like TO because of the recent earnings news and the chart. I expect another good Q for TO, and believe the news should spike the stock again to $14-15, but who knows? |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2007 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I had a decent short position in Delta Airlines (DAL) and decided to cover my shares at $20 for a 2% loss in order to buy Macy's (M) at $39.63.
The airlines will always be a bad long-term investment, but they may rise substantially in the short-term due to recent positive news for the sector. Instead of holding my short in DAL, I decided to cover and buy a likely buy-out candidate in retail.
Macy's (M) has recently been rumored to be bought by Private Equity Firm KKR for over $50 per share. I believe that the stock is a good value despite a buy-out. If there is a deal, it will likely come to fruition within the next 6-12 months. Grabbing Macy's at these levels will yield a possible 25% gain, which is not too shabby.
My Current Holdings:
BRCM = 15%
TO = 14%
ASPV = 13%
PDEX = 12%
INSW = 10%
M = 9%
ISOT = 9%
RHB = 9%
BXG = 7%
NGEN = 3%
(I am also short SIX at $6.15 as a hedge against a market correction)
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 11:33 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to buy shares of Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) at $5.38 today because the stock looks incredibly cheap. BRLC has a forward P/E of only 7.07, a PEG ratio of 0.35, and a Price/Book ratio of 2.09 (pretty low for a tech company). BRLC manufactures LCD televisions, and sells them at many major retailers.
Another attractive aspect of the stock is the fact that 25% of the float is short. This will create a nice pop on any positive news as the shorts cover their shares.
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I covered my short position in Six Flags (SIX) at $5.85 today for a 5% gain achieved in a few weeks. SIX is a stock that is destined for bankruptcy in my opinion, but may have a "dead-cat bounce" from these levels. I may decide to short SIX again in the future.
Deckers (DECK) seems like a pretty good short opportunity at these lofty levels. I sold DECK short at $101, expecting the stock to correct to the mid $80's in a month or so. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | Gugs,
Why TO and not a similar stock like MCRL or SUPX? I think the latter is an especially compelling financial comparison, but this is all just taken from the quant model... and partially to make the contrarian call on Goldman's semiconductor analyst. |
Up 20% on TO in a few weeks. Will likely sell soon, Hopefully not TOO early... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Not a bad call, you just be careful that you get those shares out before it gives back the big gains it made today with hardly any significant volume... then we can all sit around and wait for the semiconductor wreck.  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | Not a bad call, you just be careful that you get those shares out before it gives back the big gains it made today with hardly any significant volume... then we can all sit around and wait for the semiconductor wreck. |
I will sell TO pretty soon. I expect it to run a bit more (5-10%). TO may pop BIG after earnings, but I may not own it if it reaches my sell target before then.
Love that big head-fake in ASPV, how bout you? |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Love that big head-fake in ASPV, how bout you? |
I thought it was delicious; most others didn't share my perspective. I believe that may be why I have problems with people - I can look at something down 15% and say "so what." Still think the thesis holds over at Aspreva.
Nobody actually reads things anymore... like the results of clinical trials (see: ASPV, AMGN). Also, I'm pretty high on the new guy they brought in - I have something written on my site about Freytag from a day or two ago, but I'm feeling lazy and won't link to it right now. He headed up Myogen for a long time, if you do a bit of searching you'll see how well he did there. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 6:31 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| gugaplex wrote: | Bought Tech/Ops Sevcon @ $9.24 Today
In my pursuit to find small cap stocks that are under-valued, Tech/Ops Sevcon certainly foots the bill.
TO is an attractive investment due to several reasons. The most important is that the company is executing nicely by growing earnings, while having virtually zero debt.
Another important aspect of TO is that the company is not as dependent on the economy as other stocks may be.
Also, with the low share float for TO, good news will send shares sky-high. |
I sold TO today at $11.50 for a 25% gain in a few weeks. Should probably still run nicely, but I just don't like getting greedy... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:56 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to take profits in Tech-Ops/Sevcon (TO) today at $11.50 because of one reason-I realized a 25% gain in the stock in only a few weeks. I still think TO is a great small-cap long play at these levels, but I have learned that it it better to take nice gains when they are to be had.
With the freed-up funds, I decided to sell Six Flags (SIX) short again at $5.91. I believe that the inclement weather in Texas and the Northeast for much of the summer will put a damper on earnings. Also, the various news reports regarding a teen's feet being severed on a popular ride in Kentucky, and a severe beating of a teenager by a mob that included several Six Flags employees in Georgia will weigh on future attendance.
Considering that SIX is already in financial disarray, the stock should trade lower before and after earnings.
As a word of caution, I do not recommend shorting any stocks unless you fully understand the risks. SIX could miracuously surprise investors with a positive earnings report, and cause big losses for short-sellers. Considering the economics, this is very unlikely. However, stranger things have happened.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:42 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I snapped-up shares of Hirsch International (HRSH) at $4.41 today because the company has turned the corner, and we will likely see more good news from their next earnings release in the coming weeks. The company has pretty low valuations based on my earnings expectations of $0.40 per share for 2007 (giving the stock a P/E of only 11). Considering that the company is growing earnings, I believe the stock should be worth at least $6-7 per share. Any positive earnings above this expectation should boost the shares considerably.
Click link for Seeking Alpha article:
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070518/35927_id.html?.v=1 |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2007 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I took a 3% loss in RehabCare (RHB) today at $14.90, but I still like this stock for the long-term (2-3 years). The trouble is that I am looking for great returns over the short-term (6-12 months). This is why I decided to short First Solar (FSLR) at $106.
First Solar (FSLR) has great prospects for the future as a company, but the stock is EXTREMELY OVER-VALUED. When you consider that FSLR has a forward P/E of nearly 100, and a PEG ratio of 3.00, it looks strikingley similar to Internet stocks in 2000. Also, FSLR trades at over 20x's Book Value!
Traders that shorted over-valued tech stocks in 2000 reaped huge rewards as the prices plummeted. I believe that FSLR is doomed for the same result, but be prudent when shorting a volatile stock like this one... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 142,564.18
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Made Some Big Moves Today
Like I said before, a strong market correction is likely on the horizon. In order to clue everyone in on what I did today in one post versus many individual ones, I will give quick-takes below:
-Sold InsWeb (INSW) at $7.20 for a whopping 5% gain (in 3 months).
-Bought more Macy's (M) at $42.39, due to buyout speculation.
-Sold Broadcom (BRCM) at $33.00 for an 8% gain (in 5 weeks).
-Sold Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) at $6.85 for a 27% gain (in 1 week).
-Bought QID (an ETF that shorts the QQQQ) at $41.00.
-Sold Short Baidu (BIDU) at $195, betting on a nice market correction.
Best of Luck to ALL... |
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