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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
 Posted: Mon May 21, 2007 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | I still think that NAZ 3000 is a strong possibility. Gonna have one nice correction first, but after that we should be smooth sailing to 3000... |
One thing I noticed in a quick update I did of the quant model is that at least a few semiconductor stocks (?) have apparently gained a lot of appeal, very quickly. I'm looking to have a full writeup tomorrow, but here are the best semiconductor stocks for now. The larger ones that make up the SOXX also come in pretty highly too... I am still trying to see whether this is just a coincidence, or possibly the start of a fundamental shift that could really drive these stocks, the SOXX, and hence the Nasdaq, higher. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 6:09 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
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| 1% down day is likely in next couple days for the "mawkets". Be ready to buy a bargain if you see one... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2007 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
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12266.78 e$
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Need roughly 12% more to get to NAZ 3000. I'm guessing the NAZ will rally a bit more (maybe 100 pts) over the next couple months before a decent correction of roughly 100 pts. Leaving us at square-one. Then the NAZ will march to 3000 during the last couple months of 2007...
Call me crazy. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2007 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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You're crazy, but perhaps slightly less-so than everyone else doing all this buying.
I think there may be less than half a dozen stocks worth owning right now... anyone want to venture a guess at the five I can think of? |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2007 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
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Location: USA
12266.78 e$
Net worth: 191,410.78
Portfolio Value: 179,144.00
Monthly Return: 5.08%
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | You're crazy, but perhaps slightly less-so than everyone else doing all this buying.
I think there may be less than half a dozen stocks worth owning right now... anyone want to venture a guess at the five I can think of? |
I already know I am crazy. But think about it (without getting into too many stats, etc), the markets are still in a sweet spot. Across most message boards, there is a near split of Bulls versus Bears (at least the ones I frequent). Bears keep saying the markets are over-valued, but in reality the valuations for the S&P 500 aren't any where near where they were in 1999-2000. The P/E for the S&P was in the mid 20's then, now it is less than 17. Considering that the recent forward-looking economic indicators are pointing towards a pick-up in growth, S&P earnings should continue to expand, thereby supporting multiples (and allowing for possible expansion).
I just don't see the bubble that everyone else does. I think the bubble will come when everyone else doesn't see it, and capitulates at the wrong time... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2007 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
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12266.78 e$
Net worth: 191,410.78
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | You're crazy, but perhaps slightly less-so than everyone else doing all this buying.
I think there may be less than half a dozen stocks worth owning right now... anyone want to venture a guess at the five I can think of? |
I am sad to see that SIX isn't on your "Short List"... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2007 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | I already know I am crazy.
Bears keep saying the markets are over-valued, but in reality the valuations for the S&P 500 aren't any where near where they were in 1999-2000. The P/E for the S&P was in the mid 20's then, now it is less than 17. Considering that the recent forward-looking economic indicators are pointing towards a pick-up in growth, S&P earnings should continue to expand, thereby supporting multiples (and allowing for possible expansion).
I just don't see the bubble that everyone else does. I think the bubble will come when everyone else doesn't see it, and capitulates at the wrong time... |
I think most people would admit that the markets are "elevated" right now, and I especially believe that true conservative investors should be having a hard time finding bargain stocks. Now, if you like trading tech stocks on margin before announcements and whatnot, this is a perfect market for you because it keeps pressing higher... I just don't see the appeal of much of anything out there. Yes, things could be a whole lot more expensive, but then everything would just look that much worse to me. Stocks look better after a big fall, not a big rise.
Today I was in the unusual situation of getting offers from two people to invest their money, and normally I explain how I handle things, what I'm looking at - basically, give them an idea of what would happen to their capital besides padding the Porsche fund. Today, I could hardly find a half-dozen stocks I could be enthusiastic about... hence, the earlier comment.
Gugs, you know stuff is expensive and there are some excesses out there... and I don't think earnings growth is accelerating. Just give me the heads up when it is all coming down.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:19 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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I already gave me top tawgut fo da DOW. My "maximum" top tawgut fo da Naz is 1725. Probubbly some backing anna filling first...but look for one last strong rally in da Naz based on the coming collapse in commodititties which will sound the "all's clear" for the 10 year rate to head lower (since rates are basically levitating becuz da mawkets don't baleave da govmint inflayshun stats). This is also why I advised locking in the 5.25% rate and making 20% ov one's port tied to falling intrust rates. Once the mawkets reach their summit we will have a massive collapse in equities which will force da fed to lower rates. The only missing pawt o'da puzzle is whether or not da VIX heads down sub 9.50. If it holds that area look for the Naz to collapse to the 2100 and set the stage for a triple top. If da VIX heads down to retest the multi-year low the bear mawket will begin and we will go back to retest March 2003 levels...probly lower than that actually.  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
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Location: USA
12266.78 e$
Net worth: 191,410.78
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I'm so crazy. NAZ will hit 3000 by year's end.
No one see's it, but me (which makes it more like-lee) |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12266.78 e$
Net worth: 191,410.78
Portfolio Value: 179,144.00
Monthly Return: 5.08%
Trades this month: 1
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Ohh, let's wait for the weak hands to be shaken! Market plunge is already all over the news. May continue for a couple weeks (or less), but will only present an excellent opportunity for the institutions to screw the panicky retail investors.
And people wonder why the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer?
NAZ 3000 by the end of 2007 is still a strong possibilty. If it happens, I want some $e donations... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | NAZ 3000 by the end of 2007 is still a strong possibilty. If it happens, I want some $e donations... |
If we hit 3,000 on the Nasdaq, I'll give you a full page article on both of my websites for "call of the year." |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 12:55 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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I doubt it makes it to 3000 this year since there is now a date with 2100 first....and dat's gar-own-teed. This next little reflex rally runs to 2675 tops at best I would say....leaving da sheeple trapped on Dubya B's "island ov doom"   Da VIX never did take out that 9.50 area. It will at sumtime in da future. I promus my take on energy n commodititties will eventually be da catlist fer higher stock prices though. The XOI has an initial tawget ov 900. It'll probly break balow 900 actually....retest 900....and then fall further to next majer support at 600. Do you know where a stock like F will be trading when da rammifuckayshuns of XOI 900 takes its toll on Earl?  I do! The mgmt at F will be tusslin wit da yoon yuns over the next several weeks. That'll bring F down to sub $6 dallahs! But I wouldn put it past the fokes who invest on "the obvious" to drive F to a new 52 week high foist when they see what da Reaper does to Earl over the next week er 2.  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 6:11 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12266.78 e$
Net worth: 191,410.78
Portfolio Value: 179,144.00
Monthly Return: 5.08%
Trades this month: 1
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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A little snippet I found this weekend:
"Investors will be trying to gauge whether the sell-off has left stocks at an attractive level. The S&P's price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 on a forward basis put stocks at their cheapest level since early April." |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 6:43 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | A little snippet I found this weekend:
"Investors will be trying to gauge whether the sell-off has left stocks at an attractive level. The S&P's price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 on a forward basis put stocks at their cheapest level since early April." |
Of course stocks are at the cheapest levels since April, but what does that mean? There is no perspective that can be gained from a three month comparison of an index.
Forward earnings valuations are almost as stupid as pro forma earnings... |
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