| Author |
Message
|
| StatTrader |
 Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2007 5:13 am Post subject: Peak Oil Links |
 |
|
Member Of The Month! April
|
For those interested in the Peak Oil debate, I thought it would be nice to have a thread for sharing links to articles on both sides of the debate.
For those unfamiliar with Peak Oil, Peak Oil is not about the end of oil, it is about the end of our ability to increase the availability of oil. Almost everyone is in agreement that oil is a finite resource that will eventually be used up. In the process of using it up, production first increases, reaches a peak, then slowly decreases. Currently the world consumes about 86 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd) and produces slightly less than 85 mbpd. Some forecasts state that we have already seen the peak production, other forecasts state that peak will be at about 115 mbpd.
The "sides" of the Peak Oil debate aren't about whether Peak Oil will occur but are about when Peak Oil will occur. The current estimates range from 2005 to about 2030. One "side" argues that it is far enough away that we can take our time to start addressing the issue, the other "side" claims that it is on our doorstep so we need to act with urgency.
My hope is that any actual debate on this board take place on a separate thread from this one. Let's reserve this thread for links. This thread should be about sharing resources so that board members can educate themselves about the issue. Lets keep the arguing about who's right and who's wrong on a separate thread.
The links below are generally on the side of Peak Oil occurring sooner rather than later.
http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/av_20070618.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/31138.html
http://www.odac-info.org/
http://www.theoildrum.com/
If you have personally read a book about Peak Oil that you would like to share, please mention the book here. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2007 4:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
Tom/Stat,
I picked up a copy of "A Thousand Barrels a Second" by Peter Tertzakian. I've only gotten through the first 75 pages or so, and as such aren't really into the "good" parts yet... I'll give a more in-depth review/recommendation once I finish it sometime in the next week.
If you want some firepower for the "Peak Oil Now" crowd, I recommend reading up on Sakhalin I/II projects... or just watching a slideshow. The engineering feats Exxon needed to pull off to make that possible are exceptionally impressive. I believe the cover of either the 2004 or 2005 XOM Annual Report is one of the Sakhalin projects, but to really do it justice you need to see some of the diagrams and understand the climate...
Production costs wound up being something in the neighborhood of $35 billion if my memory isn't failing me. Original estimate? $15 billion or so. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| StatTrader |
| Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 5:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Member Of The Month! April
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
Earl's makin nice progress towards $55 this moanin in da futures pits. Maybe you shud pray fo a him er herricane like da resto da Earl idots?  But be careful ifn ya live in Lonk Island, N.Y. I'll be takin dat out this summer.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| gnd0221186 |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 4:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
Investing Associate
Joined: 23 Jan 2007
Posts: 47
This Month: 0
198.44 e$
Net worth: 69,800.74
Portfolio Value: 69,602.30
Monthly Return: -34.95%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
|
| interesting viewpoint - but considering the article is based on technical analysis, i can't give it much credibility. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| StatTrader |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
Member Of The Month! April
|
Yet another, this time from Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aH6K3ZWkTOwY&refer=energy
Also, a very good book is "Twilight in the Desert" by Mathew Simmons. The first part of the book gives an overview of the history of the Saudi royal family and Saudi politics, the second part of the book explains oil geology, and the third section of the book discusses technical papers that Saudi engineers have submitted to technical oil conferences and what those papers suggest for the current state of Saudi oil fields. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| gnd0221186 |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
Investing Associate
Joined: 23 Jan 2007
Posts: 47
This Month: 0
198.44 e$
Net worth: 69,800.74
Portfolio Value: 69,602.30
Monthly Return: -34.95%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
|
| another interesting viewpoint. with oil prices surging and the housing markets struggling, id be interested to see how long the fed will keep rates unchanged. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| gnd0221186 wrote: | | another interesting viewpoint. with oil prices surging and the housing markets struggling, id be interested to see how long the fed will keep rates unchanged. |
Well...da fed can't raise rates becuz ifn it did GS would tank another 150 points in 1 day! Then ole Hank Paulson would storm into Dubya's office screeming  "Hey! When I switched from being da biggest crook in the country to werkin fer you I was promused the rest ov my sheister buddies wouldn't get crushed!...not until Hillary gets elected and you go down as the werst president in the history of this country anyways"  Da fed will be lowering rates as soon as da mawkets go through the repeat of Oct 1987. Bernanke will NOT act until there is a reazun to. And of course since uncle Ben stops by heeeeya to see what da Reaper gots in store he knows I'll be bringing commodititties down in a heap. Inflayshun be da biggest concern. But wit da Reaper werkin it like a rib...uncle Ben can sleep "OK" at night.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| gnd0221186 |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:31 am Post subject: |
|
|
Investing Associate
Joined: 23 Jan 2007
Posts: 47
This Month: 0
198.44 e$
Net worth: 69,800.74
Portfolio Value: 69,602.30
Monthly Return: -34.95%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
|
| haha grim, don't be so optimistic. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| StatTrader |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 4:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Member Of The Month! April
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
 |
| StatTrader |
| Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
Member Of The Month! April
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2007 12:58 pm Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| StatTrader |
| Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
Member Of The Month! April
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 1:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| StatTrader wrote: | | Interesting article stating that oil demand is determined more by GDP growth than price. |
In the book I just read, there were alot of charts showing - I forget the exact name used - something along the lines of "economic oil dependency," which represents what each 1% growth in GDP translates to in terms of increased oil usage. For a rapidly industrializing like China, the correlation is about 1, for the US the correlation is around .6, and I believe South Korea was mentioned as one of the lower users with a ratio around .25 or so...
Also, another interesting article from Seeking Alpha that doesn't directly relate to Peak Oil, but rather to the potential for current mispricings in drilling stocks due to the view that high oil prices are just cyclical... http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/39549 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| StatTrader |
| Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 3:22 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Member Of The Month! April
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
stock market game on the web. At eInvesting you compete for monthly cash prizes while you interact, make virtual dollars, purchase items, and trade in the realistic stock market simulator. We make investing FUN!
