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| Oil & Tech "Pigstock" Performance |
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| damon |
 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:14 pm Post subject: Oil & Tech "Pigstock" Performance |
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Investing Sr. Associate
Joined: 04 May 2006
Posts: 160
This Month: 0
4484.64 e$
Net worth: 35,974.64
Portfolio Value: 31,490.00
Monthly Return: -48.35%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Ever take a moment to examine just how accurate Grimreaper’s calls are on the “overpriced pigstocks” in oil and tech? I had too much time on my hands today, so to entertain myself, I figured I’d go back in my time machine more than a year to early 2006 to see how some of the stocks that Grim knocks the most have done since then. We’ll start with one of my better investments, NVDA.
02/16/2006 – Online Traders Forum
This pig of a stock NVDA reports after da bell. Earnings will be stellar but it won't matter because pigs can't fly! *-)
02/17/2006 – Online Traders Forum
Poor suckas that bought da news in AH trading won't see their $$$ until the year 2010, it (NVDA) was up well over $5 at the height of the idiot frenzy. Da suckas dat bought on de open might get a chance to rethink their buy though, looks like that opening high will be retested at sumtime in da future. Yo Cramer! Can ya pump this pig on tonight's show?!! We gots some idiots that gave up all their gains and you know only you can make sure that a proper top gets put in on this pig! LOL
02/20/2006 - eInvesting
Then why did NVDA trade up 5.50 in AH trading on Th but never hit that peak during regular hours?, plus it gave back nearly all of the entire gain? if earnings mattered NVDA will move on to new highs from here because it also upped guidance going forward, watch what happens to NVDA to see if earnings mattered, it mattered to the fokes who paid 5.50 above the Th closing price in AH trading, but those fokes are among the dumbest species on da planet!
Now for a dose of reality. On 02/16/06, NVDA closed at 47.20 (23.60 split adj). It opened the morning after earnings at 50.67 (25.335 split adj). Today NVDA closed at $42.98. Even the “suckas” who bought the open on 02/17/06 are now up 69%. 
Let’s move on to another one. Grim also seemed to think AAPL & GOOG were grossly overvalued and due to crash and burn.
04/11/2006 - eInvesting
I think you meant that anyone buying this next rally that takes it (AAPL) through last week's $72 and change high is making a mistake! Ohhh you might buy on da funnymentals....but if ya knows how ta read a chawt ya won't fall fo it. Wait'll you see where this pig ends up on the next wave down. I guess you can just watch GOOG since it's about a day or 2 ahead of AAPL at this point....but headed in the same direction nonetheless.
04/11/2006 - eInvesting
OK, GOOG and AAPL are overpriced pigs! and here's a bonus piggie fo ya, RIMM will be squealin soon too! I know you likes dat one....I say it's da poster child for the second tech bubble and you will eventually see a move in RIMM like you saw in KKD which also could do no wrong at one time, in fact, I think RIMM will sumday trade where KKD is now trading!
Wow. Pretty safe to say that Grimmie didn’t like AAPL, RIMM or GOOG as all three were obviously overpriced and not good investments at those prices. Well the next trading day after Grim’s post (04/12/06), you could have bought AAPL at the open for 68.01. That same day, you could have bought RIMM at open for 76.53 and you could have bought GOOG for 409.00. Today, AAPL closed at 123.90, RIMM closed at 170.97 and GOOG closed at 514.11. You would have been up 82% on AAPL, up 123% on RIMM, and up 25% on GOOG since then. Ouch!  
Finally, I’ll move on to Grim’s “favorite” sector, Oil. Reading a few of his posts should leave you with little doubt that Grimmie thinks just about everything in the oilpatch is overpriced and overdue for collapse.
01/11/2006 - eInvesting
Crude will definitely be below $50 before the year is out sometime, in fact, the price of all commodities will stage a serious pullback, I think we will see some serious shocks in both the stock market and the real estate market that will make consumers pull in da horns on their spending habits of the past few years, rates will rise farther than most expect but not too much farther, we are at the top of the cycle for stocks and real estate, pretty close to bubbles actually, there is alot of wealth that will be lost because of it, the negativity that will be caused by falling networth will slow demand for all commodities, it should be a good year for those who didn't follow the crowd though, with lots of opportunities presenting themselves to you if you were smart enough not to jump on the bandwagon and use your home as an instant teller machine and you aren't too heavily weighted in stocks, how's that for the contrarian point of view?
02/20/2006 - eInvesting
Looks like we are being gouged at da pump agin, this time there is appx. a .10 premium above where gas at da pump should be selling based on da fack that gasoline futures hit the lowest levels in over 1 year, yet prices at da pump did not! but doanchu worry, when stocks come crashin down the energy sector is still going to be the sector that falls the fastest and da farthest, and of course the stock market always purdickts real life situations like how much we pay fo gas at da pump at this point in time I think it is appropriate that we thank Jim Cramer for creating not only the first top in the energy stocks, but also the second peak in da duble top, enjoy da carnage and pray for those who will hold through it cause they think the energy plays be comin back, they isn't, not fo a looooooong time, obey da mawkets! ignore yer thirst!
02/20/2006 - eInvesting
The energy sector as a whole will more than likely be the worst performing sector in 2006. Expect the vast majority of the stocks to lose 30-50% of current values. You will hear anal-ysts continue to push them because of low PE's and udder crap, but doanchu fall for it. The "E" part of PE is earnings, and earnings have absolutely nothing to do with whether or not a stock price rallies, it's all about human perception and emotions, right now things have switched from "sector to be in" to "hopeful that highs will be retested" in da energy pigs, they won't be, and it's a loooong way down before these stocks are out of favor with the anal-ysts.
If you dared go against logic like that and bought the “energy pigstocks”, where would you be today? For example, what if you’d invested in some of Grims favorite targets like XOM, COP, CVX, VLO, CHK and HK. On 02/21/06 (just ‘cause it’s the day after the previous 2 posts), you could have bought the following stocks @ open:
CHK @ 30.70
COP @ 62.30
CVX @ 57.99
HK @ 14.17
VLO @ 55.99
XOM @ 61.00
I didn't cherry-pick that date. Buying then woudn't have even got you the lowest prices of the year. Hrmmm… Let’s see where those energy pigstocks are today.
CHK @ 36.95 – up 20%
COP @ 79.67 – up 28%
CVX @ 82.85 – up 43%
HK @ 16.75 – up 18%
VLO @ 76.57 – up 37%
XOM @ 84.30 – up 38%
This group of stocks is up an average of 30.6% even without factoring in dividends.
Just a little something to keep in mind the next time Grim poops all over your stock picks and says he’s gonna “kick yerass” in the imminent plunge. If I had a dollar for every time Grim said he was gonna deeeestroy me on my overpriced oil and tech stocks…..wait, I do!
Grim, we love ya'. I'm just sayin' that you should come with a warning sticker that says, "For entertainment purposes only". 
Disclosure: I am long AAPL, CHK, COP, GOOG, HK & NVDA. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| One of the finest posts on this site I have ever seen. Herb Greenberg couldn't have exposed a fraud any better. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:28 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | One of the finest posts on this site I have ever seen. Herb Greenberg couldn't have exposed a fraud any better. |
Relax Jaxson...we'll revisit the performance ov yer top 25 come July 1.  Do you think it is my fault dat da idiots on CNBC kept pumpin all ov dem stocks you mentioned and drove them to nonsustainable levels cause even bigger idiots lissen?  We'll have plenty of time to check calls...as I am not yet ready to decipher yer bottom call on the housing seckter when TOL was at 29.50...it ainna low enuff yet. But I'll be back to ya. |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 7:01 am Post subject: |
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Thank you damon for your investigative reporting. That was entirely the best post made here at eInvesting, hands down. THANK YOU!!  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 7:17 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| vetelmo wrote: | | Thank you damon for your investigative reporting. That was entirely the best post made here at eInvesting, hands down. THANK YOU!! |
Ahhh c'mon. He made better postes than that. Plus he jist stawted arguing witme...give him a little mo time!  Look how fer he's come so fer since he stawted tusslin witme. I think he was up there at +19% fo da mumph. Lookit him now. Do you think he got caught in dat ENCY debacle? Do you know anybudy who got caught in that salamie? Did ya hear I was tryin ta save those clowns? Isn't it time fer you ta give SIRI a WOOHOO?!!!   Nooooo, I meant |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:44 am Post subject: Re: Oil & Tech "Pigstock" Performance |
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CFO
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| BTW, ya fergot one FSLR. I've been chortin datn all the way up since $73 on this last run. So fer I have 7 "outties" fer losses of betwixt 1.5 n 4%...er thereabouts. Jist over 15% in losses total. But I re-entered taday yet agin at yet anudder higher high! The kewel thing about chortin is dat it is MUCH easier to regain a 15% loss in FSLR than it will be for you to regain a 10% loss on yer CHK long....based on the price I entered my CHK chort vs da price where you said it was kewel....which was "slightly higher" than where it be right now. May as well use current pricing as a stawtin point since you jist recently jumped into da Reaper fray. Yer gonna be a fun one ta tussle wit cause you actually think you know what yer tawkin bout...whereas summa da udder natives openly admit they are clueless. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | Relax Jaxson...we'll revisit the performance ov yer top 25 come July 1. |
By my count, my monthly 25 are beating the S&P 500 by 2.28%... again.
You have a week to get some cheap points in, want me to give you a shout out in the next performance column I write? I'll refer to you as "the cynics" |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | Grimreaper wrote: | | Relax Jaxson...we'll revisit the performance ov yer top 25 come July 1. |
By my count, my monthly 25 are beating the S&P 500 by 2.28%... again.
You have a week to get some cheap points in, want me to give you a shout out in the next performance column I write? I'll refer to you as "the cynics" |
By my count...whilst you wassa out chasin da crap dat everybudy else wassa chasin...ie da crap on yer top 25 list....yer udder crap like AMGN, BLDR, KONG, PDLI, chit like dat fell so fer it kept ya on an even keel. So whataya gonna hope fer?....me ta take yer list ov the most grossly overvalued POS in da land down just so ya kin gain 40% on KONG...just so ya kin finally get even on da trade?....is that any way to act at a rock n roll concert? |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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When I asked Grim to put a time frame around his predictions for the great fall in oil and energy stocks, whether it be days, weeks, months, or years, his response was
| Quote: | | What is my timeframe? I doan really have one... |
If you hold to any prediction long enough you're bound to be right eventually. The shame is all the money and opportunities missed whilst you wait.
Excellent post. It does help to illuminate the stupidity of most of Grim's posts. Just a bunch of bullying with an absolute refusal to explain his positions and no attempt to educate the readers on his methodologies.
When challenged to give his methodologies, all he said was
| Quote: | | I gave plenty ov esplanayshuns bout how to use OBV, RSI, anna DMI over da years...ya jist wasn't payun attenshun. If I was you I'd go back and read every single one o'me postes! |
As though that is going to help any readers who recently joined the board. Attempting to sift through thousands of nonsensical posts for the one or two that might give some hint how he comes up with any the stuff he says.
Heck, he won't even use the English language properly; pity any users that might want to join the board who have English as a second language. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2007 1:40 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | When I asked Grim to put a time frame around his predictions for the great fall in oil and energy stocks, whether it be days, weeks, months, or years, his response was
| Quote: | | What is my timeframe? I doan really have one... |
If you hold to any prediction long enough you're bound to be right eventually. The shame is all the money and opportunities missed whilst you wait.
Excellent post. It does help to illuminate the stupidity of most of Grim's posts. Just a bunch of bullying with an absolute refusal to explain his positions and no attempt to educate the readers on his methodologies.
When challenged to give his methodologies, all he said was
| Quote: | | I gave plenty ov esplanayshuns bout how to use OBV, RSI, anna DMI over da years...ya jist wasn't payun attenshun. If I was you I'd go back and read every single one o'me postes! |
As though that is going to help any readers who recently joined the board. Attempting to sift through thousands of nonsensical posts for the one or two that might give some hint how he comes up with any the stuff he says.
Heck, he won't even use the English language properly; pity any users that might want to join the board who have English as a second language. |
Well, lernin da message o'da mawkets is a slooooow process. It took me 5 years ta git this brillyunt. Anna you want me to splain everythang in one post fer all da new playas? And the anser is still no!...I doan have a timeframe for how long it takes you ta BOOHOO bout CVX. I'm in no hurry to watch you die a slooooow death. But I will check witcha offen on da way down until you gimme the anser to da question I axed you What is da logimacal essplanayshun fo giving up 50%+ of yer o-rigi-nal investmunt in order to gain a 4% dividund? |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2007 1:46 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | When I asked Grim to put a time frame around his predictions for the great fall in oil and energy stocks, whether it be days, weeks, months, or years, his response was
| Quote: | | What is my timeframe? I doan really have one... |
If you hold to any prediction long enough you're bound to be right eventually. The shame is all the money and opportunities missed whilst you wait.
Excellent post. It does help to illuminate the stupidity of most of Grim's posts. Just a bunch of bullying with an absolute refusal to explain his positions and no attempt to educate the readers on his methodologies.
When challenged to give his methodologies, all he said was
| Quote: | | I gave plenty ov esplanayshuns bout how to use OBV, RSI, anna DMI over da years...ya jist wasn't payun attenshun. If I was you I'd go back and read every single one o'me postes! |
As though that is going to help any readers who recently joined the board. Attempting to sift through thousands of nonsensical posts for the one or two that might give some hint how he comes up with any the stuff he says.
Heck, he won't even use the English language properly; pity any users that might want to join the board who have English as a second language. |
Oh yeah, one mo thang. "Eventually" you are gonna be correckt about a BIG correxshun in da mawkets. You kin hold yer mawket chort ETF pozishuns until you are "eventually" proven correckt...or ya kin sit back, relax, and enjoy da festivities until da VIX hit da numba I already told everybudy it would hit. See how I try and make it eeeeeasy fo ya? Ifn ya want carnage in a hurry you are "strategically positioned" fer disasta however. Keep yer eyes pointed to da far East cause when it comes a tumblin down....you come a tumblin down. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:53 am Post subject: |
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To be "fair" to Damon. I'm gonna post the prices ov the ones we show mutual intrust in...based on his starting prices on each. This way Damon will be able to review the performance ov his picks each time he decides whether or not he wishes to post ova heeeya at this bored. I'll be able ta do dat too.
CHK 37.25
GOOG 520.00
AAPL 116.00
NVDA 40.00
A very nice "soon ta be" submersified port indeed!...ifn ya axe me dat is. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:20 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | To be "fair" to Damon. I'm gonna post the prices ov the ones we show mutual intrust in...based on his starting prices on each. This way Damon will be able to review the performance ov his picks each time he decides whether or not he wishes to post ova heeeya at this bored. I'll be able ta do dat too.
CHK 37.25
GOOG 520.00
AAPL 116.00
NVDA 40.00 |
How is that "fair?" He already pointed out that you called for doom and gloom in these stocks 30, 40, 50% ago... getting to start over each time something rallies isn't really how it should work... |
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| damon |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:22 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
Joined: 04 May 2006
Posts: 160
This Month: 0
4484.64 e$
Net worth: 35,974.64
Portfolio Value: 31,490.00
Monthly Return: -48.35%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Grim,
You seem to have missed the point of my post. I'm not declaring any of these to be a screaming buy at today's levels. I'm just showin' folks how these stocks have performed in the 12-18 months since you were knockin' em. So to be "fair" to you, maybe I ought to give you the prices these stocks were at over a year ago, when you were tellin' everyone how crappy they were and purrrdictin' their deeestruction.
AAPL: 68.01
CHK: 30.70
COP: 62.30
GOOG: 409.00
HK: 14.17
NVDA: 25.34
Or, if these are too low for you, we can use my actual cost basis. Since actions is supposed to speak louder than wurdz, I guess that would be a better idea. In case you'd like to know my ACTUAL starting prices on each (ie. my real $$$ cost basis), I'll be happy to oblige:
AAPL: 91.15
CHK: 31.20
COP: 64.30
GOOG: 519.97
HK: 10.55
NVDA: 27.38
Whichever numbers you'd perfer to use is up to you. Either way, feel free to dig up this thread in another 12-18 months and we'll see whether I should'a listned to da Reaper. |
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| gnd0221186 |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:34 am Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 23 Jan 2007
Posts: 47
This Month: 0
198.44 e$
Net worth: 69,800.74
Portfolio Value: 69,602.30
Monthly Return: -34.95%
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| AAPL has already exceeded my expectations of $110 by the end of the year. though i'm not really complaining that its at $124. |
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