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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Tue May 29, 2007 3:26 pm Post subject: Shorting China |
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I want to start a thread that expands on some good short opp's for Chinese stocks. I believe the Chinese market is over-valued, but will likely continue to move higher until the end of July 2007. The Chinese stock market will experience a quasi correction/crash in a couple months, and now is the time to start licking your chops for short opp's.
The U.S. markets will suffer as well during the sharp decline in Chinese shares, but will still maintain their upward trend. I suggest lightening up on tech stocks over the next 4-5 weeks, and start finding some good Chinese short sale candidates.
After 3-4 weeks of selling, cover your shorts and buy volatile U.S. tech stocks.
Please let me know of any good Chinese stocks to short, thx.... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2007 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Anything financial, because as soon as their markets need to be opened to Western-type accounting standards, it will be the equivalent of having the tide go out to see who is swimming naked... |
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| BobbySeals |
| Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 11:25 am Post subject: What do chinese stocks do you recommend |
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GugaPlex,
What Chinese stocks do you recommend to purchase for the short trend |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| I recommend selling/shorting Chinese stocks for a short-term trade. I would stay in the U.S. if you are looking to buy some stocks (wait for a correction). |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| On possibility that I know of (and I don't know many Chinese stocks) is FXI, which is an ETF. I bring this up because I know it is heavily weighted to financial stocks, with probably about a 40-50% allocation in that sector last time I checked. The stories I've heard about Chinese accounting... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 4:03 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Thanks. I was looking at FXI before. May short a little in a month or two...
Last edited by gugaplex on Sun Jun 03, 2007 1:23 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 3:51 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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In a previous post about a seckond coming drop in China stocks I said dat only the commodities would be adversely affected but da resto the U.S. stock mawket would rise on perceptions of what falling commodititty stocks "should" mean  1.lower costs to companies...2) da possibility dat da fed would lean towards lowering rates. My purrdickshun only came partially true as on the news of da China second 5% daily dump the commodititty plays fell sharply on the open but then rebounded nicely...but the resto da mawket moved solidly upwards. The 2 China ETF's I'm trackin (EEM n FXI) will mo than likely go through a more steep and protracted down move stawtin as early as this coming week. I would wait fer FXI to take out the 52 week high...but a chort can be entered in EEM on the open with long term outta da muny puts. And of course the absolute best play agin China should be GS. Rememba, Hank Paulson was once the head ov GS and the goings on which brung GS to the lofty levels it is at now (besides the constant Cramer pump) are just as surely a function of Hank Paulson as what happened wit HAL is a function of Dick Cheney. In fackt, Dick Cheney is gonna move to Dubai after his term is up!  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | In a previous post about a seckond coming drop in China stocks I said dat only the commodities would be adversely affected but da resto the U.S. stock mawket would rise on perceptions of what falling commodititty stocks "should" mean 1.lower costs to companies...2) da possibility dat da fed would lean towards lowering rates. My purrdickshun only came partially true as on the news of da China second 5% daily dump the commodititty plays fell sharply on the open but then rebounded nicely...but the resto da mawket moved solidly upwards. The 2 China ETF's I'm trackin (EEM n FXI) will mo than likely go through a more steep and protracted down move stawtin as early as this coming week. I would wait fer FXI to take out the 52 week high...but a chort can be entered in EEM on the open with long term outta da muny puts. And of course the absolute best play agin China should be GS. Rememba, Hank Paulson was once the head ov GS and the goings on which brung GS to the lofty levels it is at now (besides the constant Cramer pump) are just as surely a function of Hank Paulson as what happened wit HAL is a function of Dick Cheney. In fackt, Dick Cheney is gonna move to Dubai after his term is up! |
I think it is best to sit on the side-lines while the Chinese market continues to move up. The peak will likely come at the end of July. U.S. stocks will suffer after July for a month or two, simply creating a nice buying opp. I would wait until October and become heavily weighted in quality U.S. tech stocks. After the correction, we will be off to the races once again... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:36 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Grimreaper wrote: | | In a previous post about a seckond coming drop in China stocks I said dat only the commodities would be adversely affected but da resto the U.S. stock mawket would rise on perceptions of what falling commodititty stocks "should" mean 1.lower costs to companies...2) da possibility dat da fed would lean towards lowering rates. My purrdickshun only came partially true as on the news of da China second 5% daily dump the commodititty plays fell sharply on the open but then rebounded nicely...but the resto da mawket moved solidly upwards. The 2 China ETF's I'm trackin (EEM n FXI) will mo than likely go through a more steep and protracted down move stawtin as early as this coming week. I would wait fer FXI to take out the 52 week high...but a chort can be entered in EEM on the open with long term outta da muny puts. And of course the absolute best play agin China should be GS. Rememba, Hank Paulson was once the head ov GS and the goings on which brung GS to the lofty levels it is at now (besides the constant Cramer pump) are just as surely a function of Hank Paulson as what happened wit HAL is a function of Dick Cheney. In fackt, Dick Cheney is gonna move to Dubai after his term is up! |
I think it is best to sit on the side-lines while the Chinese market continues to move up. The peak will likely come at the end of July. U.S. stocks will suffer after July for a month or two, simply creating a nice buying opp. I would wait until October and become heavily weighted in quality U.S. tech stocks. After the correction, we will be off to the races once again... |
China down 8% overnight. Doan letit hit ya like a sledgehammer bafo it becomes obvious. In the meantime you will still have time to watch da Reaper deeeeestroy da Earl and commodititty mawkets. Sorry I was off by a week on my "looks like a bad week fer commodititties" call.  |
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| denaliguide |
| Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:25 am Post subject: Still playing with Fiat money? |
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so do yo have a DEATH WISH or a PLAN?
How are you going to pick your ride to the Stars or Destruction?
Wondering???
DG |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:15 am Post subject: Re: Still playing with Fiat money? |
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CFO
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| denaliguide wrote: | so do yo have a DEATH WISH or a PLAN?
How are you going to pick your ride to the Stars or Destruction?
Wondering???
DG |
I'm not "completely" sho you'stawkin ta me....but ifn ya axed 99% o'da fokes (who read my posts) who you shud axe a question like dat....I'm wreckin 99.99% ovem would tell ya ta axe me anyhoo. So here be my anser Da anser my friend, ain't blowin in da trend...da anser is blowin in da wind.  I will tell ya this though....China down 8% one day....down 7% intra-day the next day (bafo fokes came to their senses and rallied er of course ) Dat's gonna leave a mark!  Of course you may wanna stay tuned to CNBC....I'm sho they will come up wit a tawkin head ta dazzle his way (and yer's) around it  |
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| denaliguide |
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:00 am Post subject: Actually it was a reply to GUG, there Grimy |
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I really dont specialize in china related stuff AT ALL. The friggin swinging fiat / reserve / liquidity driven markets make me crazy, and I really cant dance to their rythms.
I do guess that, in my area, PM's & Commodity - Price driven stocks, tis thought that the Chinese Govt will stimulate and buy all the output of CHinese
Natural Resources ( and anyone' else's resources they can obtain) with their domestic currency (very carefully) and widen the trade in gold within china.
Now if you can stand their hank-panky and screwy book-keeping, that would have me buying some miners which have a stake in china, on a cyclical basis
BUT since I'd rather know WHEN to buy and WHEN to sell, rather than WHAT,
it leaves the question wide open for me, for as far as I am concerned they
are all a "pig in a poke". For me its as dangerous as "buying cows by candlelight" to quote a famous American Robber Baron.
Probably exchange traded companies with heavy china business and options traded would be my choice for the safest way to SHORT CHINA.
Gug, whats your take, Grimy, what you think?
GLTA,
DG |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:21 am Post subject: Re: Actually it was a reply to GUG, there Grimy |
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CFO
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| denaliguide wrote: | I really dont specialize in china related stuff AT ALL. The friggin swinging fiat / reserve / liquidity driven markets make me crazy, and I really cant dance to their rythms.
I do guess that, in my area, PM's & Commodity - Price driven stocks, tis thought that the Chinese Govt will stimulate and buy all the output of CHinese
Natural Resources ( and anyone' else's resources they can obtain) with their domestic currency (very carefully) and widen the trade in gold within china.
Now if you can stand their hank-panky and screwy book-keeping, that would have me buying some miners which have a stake in china, on a cyclical basis
BUT since I'd rather know WHEN to buy and WHEN to sell, rather than WHAT,
it leaves the question wide open for me, for as far as I am concerned they
are all a "pig in a poke". For me its as dangerous as "buying cows by candlelight" to quote a famous American Robber Baron.
Probably exchange traded companies with heavy china business and options traded would be my choice for the safest way to SHORT CHINA.
Gug, whats your take, Grimy, what you think?
GLTA,
DG |
I already told ya my play. Go with a chort on the U.S. traded stock that has the biggest stake in bad loans. Not only are there tons o'loans that won't ever be repaid. There are also derivatives now stretched to da max agin those loans....in udder werds.....those loans are levereged. Which big U.S. bank is bankrolling the whole cherade? GS.  In actuallity though, I think da biggest bang fer yer buck would be to chort a U.S. bank heavy into subprime loans of all types... HBC. |
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| denaliguide |
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 7:35 am Post subject: I like your call on picking a US BANK up to its eyeballs in |
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subprime, but most of those have been sold off to the schmucks in the sub-prime biz, and you see what happened to them.
Deep in derivatives, hey just throw a rock, you'll hit a bank deep in doodoo.
Starbux, how about them? or did they already tank too far to make a good short?
Plenty of Japanese stocks will probably do a big belly flop if/when China
cracks/crashes.
I figure its a trade not a play, cause they will recover just on the strength of their internal markets as their populations modernize.
GLTA,
DG |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 7:54 am Post subject: Re: I like your call on picking a US BANK up to its eyeballs |
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CFO
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| denaliguide wrote: | subprime, but most of those have been sold off to the schmucks in the sub-prime biz, and you see what happened to them.
Deep in derivatives, hey just throw a rock, you'll hit a bank deep in doodoo.
Starbux, how about them? or did they already tank too far to make a good short?
Plenty of Japanese stocks will probably do a big belly flop if/when China
cracks/crashes.
I figure its a trade not a play, cause they will recover just on the strength of their internal markets as their populations modernize.
GLTA,
DG |
Only da obvious ones like NEWCQ sold off pawts ov their portfolios. Sum others like LEND were actually lucky enuff to find a hedge fund flunky fresh outta college to use sum little municipality's 401K muny to get bailed out...without da city of Dumchit, Cal even werryin WTF was goin on...cause da govmint "must be" watchin chit thru da eyes ov da S.E.C. ta keep Larry Krudlow's investor class all warm n comfy ya know. The BIG GIGUNDO falls will be caused by da hedgies n privut equity clowns pukin on themselves. Of course when that happens we will all find out dat da biggest terrorist on da planet was here within da borders ov the U.S. all along! And da fokes at Fox news was werried bout airpots gettin blowd up....jeeesh! |
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