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Help Me pick my next winner - win 10,000 e$


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yandig
PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2007 9:47 am Post subject: Help Me pick my next winner - win 10,000 e$ Reply with quote

Investing Manager
Investing Manager

Joined: 11 Jul 2006

Posts: 254
This Month: 0
Location: Wine Country
296562.24 e$

Net worth: 1,088,772.24
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return:
0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

Items

As some of you know, I run my own stock market blog (see my sig).
I maintain a portfolio of 10 stocks, and I want to replace one (FRO) in the near future, perhaps even as of market close today.

I am looking for stocks that carry low P/E ratios (under 12), project 10% or better EPS growth over the next 5 years, and have solid Balance Sheets (especially Net Tangible Assets). I'm staying away from Mortgage companies for now.

I will run your picks through my valuation Model. If your stock recommendation meets my criteria (undervalued by my model), then I will select your stock for my portfolio and send you 10,000 e$.

This contest will run until I receive one stock that fits.

To see the other stocks in my portfolio, please visit my blog.

Thanks for your help Smile
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Im Not Warren Buffett
PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2007 11:21 am Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 26 Nov 2005

Posts: 3465
This Month: 36

6209.91 e$

Net worth: 33,091,284.71
Portfolio Value: 21,444.80
Monthly Return:
0.00%
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I am reworking my quant model for a monthly update; I'll post the link here when I'm finished later tonight.

First one that came to mind is Global (GLBL), followed by Lam Research (LRCX)... but like I said, I'll have a complete update for you later.
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yandig
PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2007 12:53 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

Investing Manager
Investing Manager

Joined: 11 Jul 2006

Posts: 254
This Month: 0
Location: Wine Country
296562.24 e$

Net worth: 1,088,772.24
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return:
0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

Items

Excellent work INWB!

You showed me two stocks that pass the test. I'm sending you 10,000 e$. I am replacing FRO in the portfolio with LRCX.

Although the contest is over, i'd be interested in seeing more picks. If any of you show me a really good one that goes into my portfolio, I'll be sure to send you some e$...
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Im Not Warren Buffett
PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2007 3:20 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 26 Nov 2005

Posts: 3465
This Month: 36

6209.91 e$

Net worth: 33,091,284.71
Portfolio Value: 21,444.80
Monthly Return:
0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

Items
more...

If you are set on LRCX, that is fine... but you should know that some analysts (particularly the guy at Goldman) are quite negative on the sector. While I understand his concerns, he is essentially arguing for a cyclical deceleration accompanied by a concurrent contraction in multiples. This makes no sense, but if the market acts that way, adding to semi positions would probably be a good idea.

Article on Semis

I wrote something more about semiconductor stocks earlier, and how that negativity has really put a damper on the prices of those stocks. Another company (similar to LRCX) to consider is Applied Materials (AMAT). When the Goldman Sachs guy blows his call, Blankfein, Winkelried, and Cohn will be sitting in their offices reviewing the message I CC'd them on. You can email me thanks at INWB@GS.com Very Happy Wink
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Im Not Warren Buffett
PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2007 6:41 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 26 Nov 2005

Posts: 3465
This Month: 36

6209.91 e$

Net worth: 33,091,284.71
Portfolio Value: 21,444.80
Monthly Return:
0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

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Oh, where does the time go?

Here is the updated list, energy heavy again... hm. Should be interesting to see how that works out.
June's Top Stocks
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Grimreaper
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:55 am Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 11 Jun 2005

Posts: 5922
This Month: 55

2740412.05 e$

Net worth: 7,904,922.05
Portfolio Value: 5,012,810.00
Monthly Return:
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Churn Rate: 0.00%

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Im Not Warren Buffett wrote:
Oh, where does the time go?

Here is the updated list, energy heavy again... hm. Should be interesting to see how that works out.
June's Top Stocks


Yeah....should be reeeeal intrusting to see how it werks out. I'll pick 5 off da list and put a chort to em based on closing prices fo May. Here are my 5 choices.

PCU 88.68
NUE 67.54
XOM 83.17
MRO 123.81
WNR 49.15

My list ALSO heavily weighted in Earl. Very Happy
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Im Not Warren Buffett
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 10:53 am Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 26 Nov 2005

Posts: 3465
This Month: 36

6209.91 e$

Net worth: 33,091,284.71
Portfolio Value: 21,444.80
Monthly Return:
0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

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Grimreaper wrote:
Im Not Warren Buffett wrote:
June's Top Stocks


Yeah....should be reeeeal intrusting to see how it werks out. I'll pick 5 off da list and put a chort to em based on closing prices fo May. Here are my 5 choices.

PCU 88.68
NUE 67.54
XOM 83.17
MRO 123.81
WNR 49.15


Wow... just, damn. I encourage you all to see how smashingly successful Grim was this Friday at taking down "da energy pigs"... Laughing
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damon
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 10:57 am Post subject: Reply with quote

Investing Sr. Associate
Investing Sr. Associate

Joined: 04 May 2006

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Im Not Warren Buffett wrote:

Wow... just, damn. I encourage you all to see how smashingly successful Grim was this Friday at taking down "da energy pigs"... Laughing


Don't worry. He's still got next week, and the week after that, and the week after that...ad infinitum. Laughing
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Grimreaper
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 11:09 am Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 11 Jun 2005

Posts: 5922
This Month: 55

2740412.05 e$

Net worth: 7,904,922.05
Portfolio Value: 5,012,810.00
Monthly Return:
101,886,000.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

Items

Im Not Warren Buffett wrote:
Grimreaper wrote:
Im Not Warren Buffett wrote:
June's Top Stocks


Yeah....should be reeeeal intrusting to see how it werks out. I'll pick 5 off da list and put a chort to em based on closing prices fo May. Here are my 5 choices.

PCU 88.68
NUE 67.54
XOM 83.17
MRO 123.81
WNR 49.15


Wow... just, damn. I encourage you all to see how smashingly successful Grim was this Friday at taking down "da energy pigs"... Laughing


Kewel...daily updates! Laughing I'll tell ya what...I'll let you handle the foist few days and I promus dat by this time next week you woanna wanna handle em no mo. Wink This list o'pigs ya came up wit gonna look reeeeal good on yer resume. In fackt, I bet Cramer let's you handle the "Am I submersiffied" segment on Mad Monkey after we see yer results. Very Happy Oh yeah....how bout a WOOHOO on OVTI? Laughing
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Im Not Warren Buffett
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:00 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 26 Nov 2005

Posts: 3465
This Month: 36

6209.91 e$

Net worth: 33,091,284.71
Portfolio Value: 21,444.80
Monthly Return:
0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

Items
more...

Oh, the daily update was more for my amusement than anything else. I find it interesting that a great trader like yourself has such trouble picking a top.

I'm going to be on vacation next week. Do whatever you want to those stocks in the meantime.
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shabbang
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:10 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

Investing Associate
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Joined: 28 Jul 2005

Posts: 24
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36747.72 e$

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RNO

I'm not gonna say nothin about it because Murphy's law will rear its ugly head and bite me in my tuccus.
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Grimreaper
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:48 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 11 Jun 2005

Posts: 5922
This Month: 55

2740412.05 e$

Net worth: 7,904,922.05
Portfolio Value: 5,012,810.00
Monthly Return:
101,886,000.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

Items

Im Not Warren Buffett wrote:
Oh, the daily update was more for my amusement than anything else. I find it interesting that a great trader like yourself has such trouble picking a top.

I'm going to be on vacation next week. Do whatever you want to those stocks in the meantime.


Hey...I'm just happy ta see ya finally git into black numbas! Laughing
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yandig
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:02 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

Investing Manager
Investing Manager

Joined: 11 Jul 2006

Posts: 254
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Location: Wine Country
296562.24 e$

Net worth: 1,088,772.24
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shabbang wrote:
RNO

I'm not gonna say nothin about it because Murphy's law will rear its ugly head and bite me in my tuccus.


Already in the portfolio, but thanks!
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Grimreaper
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:57 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

CFO
CFO

Joined: 11 Jun 2005

Posts: 5922
This Month: 55

2740412.05 e$

Net worth: 7,904,922.05
Portfolio Value: 5,012,810.00
Monthly Return:
101,886,000.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%

Items

Im Not Warren Buffett wrote:
Oh, the daily update was more for my amusement than anything else. I find it interesting that a great trader like yourself has such trouble picking a top.

I'm going to be on vacation next week. Do whatever you want to those stocks in the meantime.


Ya know, when ya WOOHOO'd dat WNR thingy I just thunk it was grossly overvalued based on da technicals....even though it was unnervalued based on da funnymentals. Laughing But I figured I'd go do a little research jist ta see ifn I kin try and figure out yer "thought process" on da pig. Heeeeya's what I found out fo anyone who is actually foolish enuff to be thinkin bout entering anything but a chort position:

1) This ramp up dat made Dubya B WOOHOO was based on a news release concerning a FTC objection to WNR's buyout of GI. WNR got da green light ta buy GI on May 29th and they o-fish-ally completed the transaction as GI no longer trades actively. They paid $77.

2) WNR has only been around since early 2006 when it came public near $15....GI has been around longer....it was at $15 in March 2003 intrustingly enuff. Very Happy Of course WNR couldn have paid $15 since WNR wasn't there ta do dat in 2003. They coulda paid $50 though....but I'm wreckin a newbie stock trading at $15 would have no chance of gettin da deal financed Crying or Very sad Da ganews is dat Dubya B "finally" realized the value in WNR (at $37) and put in da good werd wit da BIG banks ta get the deal done. In return he was promised that his overview of great stock plays fo June 2007 would git published in said bank's mumphly newsletter. Arrow SAWEET!!! Laughing Congrats on datn right theeeya. Confused

3) Of course everybudy knows that when news like this comes out ya jist gotta have it! Wink I'm wreckin dat be why WNR was up 5.29% taday on 20% less volume than yesterday. Rolling Eyes

There ya go!...that's how it werks. A transfer of werthlessness from one sad company to da next....and it only took em 1 year to get that shell ova company WNR setup and runnin on all sillynders bafo Dubya B noticed it. Good job Dubya B. The "secret society" could probly use a "front man" like you. Very Happy Fo da resto ya's...that's the way it actually is but of course it won't be oblivious till it gits proven to ya. Confused
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shabbang
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 3:29 pm Post subject: Reply with quote

Investing Associate
Investing Associate

Joined: 28 Jul 2005

Posts: 24
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36747.72 e$

Net worth: 36,747.72
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Churn Rate: 0.00%

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Ooops, sorry. I should have checked first.

CROX

And its not because Kramer said it either.
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