| Author |
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| SemirB |
 Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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Man Grim you're just giving your fake money away now 
| Grimreaper wrote: | | gugaplex wrote: | | Benjamin wrote: | Good bet!
Gugaplex and Grimreaper
| Quote: | | I will bet you 80,000 eDollars that GOOG will close ABOVE $513 before it closes BELOW $380. |
It's logged and official! |
Just a reminder about our previous bet on GOOG... |
Ahhhh...the "missing bet"  I know I still have a bet wit Stockmarkettips on NVDA. I already paid him on his bet wit me on WWAT....which brings my overall wrecker'd to 9-3. I knew I had made a bet wit sumbody on GOOG...I just couldn't remember who!  Thanks fer da reminder....my suggestion would be to "hedge" your side ov da bet by initiating "partial" short positions "if" GOOG hits $490....go ALL IN short if Cramer raises his price tawget as da pig trades through 5 hunnert!  | |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: INSW... |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I snapped up shares of InsWeb(INSW) after-hours at $7.32. Once again, I likely paid a premium for the shares (much like when I bought JAX after-hours @ $11.50 a month ago). The company reported excellent earnings, and the trend will likely continue for the next few years or so. INSW is a long-term hold for now, but may be a sell candidate if it reaches double digits in the next 6 months or less.
Best of luck to all... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2007 11:37 am Post subject: Sold PWAV Today @ $6.26 |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to sell PWAV today at $6.26 for a small 7% gain. Long-term, the stock should do well due to the build-out of 3G/4G cellular networks. However, with recent purchases of Nanogen (NGEN) and InsWeb (INSW), I needed to free-up some cash. If PWAV declines significantly from here, I may repurchase the stock.
Good luck... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Sold JAX @ $14.50 and added more INSW...
I decided to sell all of my holdings in J. Alexanders (JAX) today due to a couple reasons. One, I made a nice 26% gain from my purchase on March 1st at $11.50. Secondly, I wanted to use the funds to add to my recent purchase of InsWeb (INSW). I believe INSW is fairly valued at $10 for the short-term, and $15 for the longer-term.
Considering that INSW will likely post earnings of $0.50 per share for 2007, it is safe to assume a P/E of 20 for a growing company like INSW.
I still think JAX should reach $16-17 over the next year or so, but I was happy to take profits and move some of the money into another play that will likely have better gains over the same time period. I will still watch JAX in hopes that it declines to around $12, where it may create another buying opportunnity.
Best of luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 12:56 pm Post subject: Sold BRCM and Bought TASR... |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I sold my remaining holdings in BRCM at $31.07 and bought TASR at $10.14 because of several reasons.
The markets are due for a correction. After holding shares in BRCM for over a year, I realized a gain of 38% (which is not too shabby).
The Chinese market is due for a significant correction. This drop will cause U.S. equities (especially technology shares) to fall in sympathy.
There will eventually be an excellent buying opportunity for chip stocks like BRCM (in the mid $20's).
I like TASR because the company is not sensitive to the economy, and the stock seems to be breaking-out despite any correction.
My Current Holdings:
ABIX = 18%
OVTI = 15%
NADX = 13%
TASR = 13%
ISOT = 10%
RHB = 10%
INSW = 10%
BXG = 7%
NGEN = 4%
(I also sold DAL short @ $20 as a hedge) |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri May 25, 2007 5:15 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Sold ABIX at $11.40 today...
I decided to take profits in Abatix (ABIX) today because I wanted to cash-in on a 64% gain that was achieved in a little less than 4 months. Luckily, this stock was the largest holding in my portfolio, so it helped me out a bit. I still like ABIX, but I thought it would be best to de-leverage myself a bit and wait for a possible pull-back in the stock.
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat May 26, 2007 1:59 am Post subject: Bought Pro-Dex (PDEX) Yesterday at $1.61 |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Pro-Dex (PDEX) is a small company that makes rotary drive systems for the healthcare industry. With the chart looking to have bottomed, I wouldn't be surprised if PDEX reaches $3 in a year or so (offering a near 100% return). Due to the small size of the company and low share float, the price of the stock should be pretty volatile and is not for the faint of heart.
I like the stock because it offers diversification away from the economy and general stock market. PDEX is likely to move higher despite what the markets do, in my opinion. In addition, the stock offers a nice value with a low Price/Book ratio of 1.12.
Let me know what you think.
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:33 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to add to my holdings in National Dentex (NADX) today at $17.39 because the stock is still under-valued in my opinion. A fair value for NADX is $23-24 per share, giving the stock a P/E of 15 based on estimated 2007 EPS of $1.60. With NADX trading at $17.68, it has room to gain 30% or more within the next 12 months. I like the stock because it offers diversification for my portfolio against a possible correction in the markets.
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I covered my short in Delta (DAL) at $18.60 for a quick 7% gain. I still believe that the stock is a bad investment at these levels, but I wanted to free-up some cash to repurchase shares in Broadcom (BRCM). My only two tech stocks are OmniVision Technolgies (OVTI) and Broadcom (BRCM). The markets will likely continue to correct a bit from these levels, but I think that these two names are the best bets for a resumption of the Bull Market.
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to cash-in on my Taser (TASR) holdings due to the fast run-up the stock experienced since my purchase two weeks ago at $10.14. Taser is still a great stock, but I just can't resist taking a 22% gain after only two weeks. Normally I would hold a stock like TASR and wait for the next leg up, but I saw an excellent opportunity in another company.
I am always looking for stocks that will likely appreciate greatly from their current levels. Probably the best one I have seen in a long time is Aspreva Pharmaceuticals (ASPV). I will make an additional post as to why ASPV is a screaming buy at these levels.
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Aspreva Pharmaceuticals (ASPV) is one of the best stocks I have come across in a long time. As with all investments, there lies risks and rewards.
ASPV has a forward P/E ratio of 4.28. This number alone is extremely modest considering the aspects of the company. If you take a look at ASPV's financials, you will see that they are very efficient at churning-out profits for shareholders. ASPV sports a Return on Equity of 44%, coupled with a very low Price/Book ratio of 2.26. ASPV also has cash (and cash equivalents) of $277 million, which acts as a buffer for any negative news on drug approvals, etc.
The big risk for ASPV is that they currently rely on one drug, which is manufactured by another company (Roche). The drug is called Cellcept, which suppresses the body's immune system. Roche created Cellcept for patients who receive organ transplants because the human body will naturally trigger the immune system to attack a foreign object of any type. Cellcept allows the body to accept the transplant much easier. ASPV figures that Cellcept can also be used in other ways, namely in the fight against Lupus (a disease in which the immune system attacks the body). The FDA has recently put Cellcept on a "Fast-Track" review process, which hints at a possible approval of the drug's use against Lupus. The FDA may deny the effectiveness of the drug, and ASPV shares will suffer in the short-term. However, the company has a great deal of cash that will likely bridge the gap into another drug discovery which ASPV is already on the prowl.
Please do your OWN research on ASPV before buying, as it will likely be a volatile investment over the next few years.
Good Luck to ALL... |
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| damon |
| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
Joined: 04 May 2006
Posts: 160
This Month: 0
4484.64 e$
Net worth: 35,974.64
Portfolio Value: 31,490.00
Monthly Return: -48.35%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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That's great news. My stepmother's got Lupus. It's pretty mild as Lupus cases go. As long as she take it easy, she's alright. If she overworks herself, she can't hold food down and winds up stuck in bed for a few days.  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:24 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I decided to take profits in OmniVision Technologies (OVTI) at $17.05 because of a couple reasons. The main factor was to be less exposed to the market in the short-term. The other was due to the decent return of 26% since my purchase at $13.55 a few months ago. OVTI is still a great long-term stock in my opinion, and I plan to repurchase when the markets experience a strong correction in the next month or two.
I also decided to short Delta Airlines (DAL) again at $19.54. With the markets starting to lose a little steam, this should help hedge my portfolio against a correction. If shorting a stock, it is wise to pick an industry that has struggled from the beginning of its history. There are not many differences for airlines today than how they were in the past few decades of plummeting stock prices and bankruptcies. However, I suggest using extreme caution when selling a stock short.
My Current Holdings:
NADX = 19%
BRCM = 15%
ASPV = 14%
INSW = 12%
PDEX = 12%
ISOT = 9%
RHB = 9%
BXG = 7%
NGEN = 3% |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Sold SIX Short Today @ $6.15
In conjunction with my growing theme on protection from a correction, I decided to sell Six Flags short today at $6.15. The recent news for the company is not too bright after a 13 year old girl had her feet severed on a Six Flags ride in Kentucky.
Taking a look at the quarterly net income for SIX, you will see that the company is only profitable in the period ending in September. Therefore, with the recent negative news, one would expect that earnings for this one and only profitable quarter will be relatively weak. I love roller-coasters, but one thing that is always in the back of my head when riding one is whether or not I am going to go flying off the track, etc. I'm not sure that people are going to be quite as enthusiastic about handing over $40-50 to be worried all-day (heck, they can just watch the stock market instead).
Another reason I am negative on SIX is due to their financial health. The company has Current Assets (cash, inventory, etc.) of $133 million, and Current Liabilities (Accounts Payable and Short-Term Debt Payments) of $291 million. This is bad news for a company trying to stay afloat.
The final factor that I used to short SIX is the fact that there really isn't any future growth for theme parks. What catalyst will pop-up that will cause people to increase their visits to the parks? SIX can open more attractions and parks, but then they'll just lose MORE money. If SIX can't be profitable in a growing economy , then when will they have positive net income?
A word of caution, SIX has a large short interest in the stock (28%). However, I do not see much of a reason for the shorts to cover. Even if the economy continues to grow, I seriously doubt SIX will ever be profitable. When the economy starts to slow, look out below! |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15127.76 e$
Net worth: 107,551.86
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Sold NADX @ $19.49 Today
It was a tough decision, but I decided to sell my holdings in National Dentex (NADX) to free-up some cash. In my opinion, a market correction is on the horizon (if not under-way as we speak). The great thing about NADX is that I learned a valuable lesson from the stock. My initial purchases were in the high $18's, and I added more recently in the $17's. However, I became very nervous when the stock dropped to $14 during the early part of 2007. NADX was a big frustration at the time.
Luckily, I held onto the stock based on my prior analysis (NADX had low valuations, was in healthcare, and out of favor). My price target for NADX is in the low $20's, but I believe it is better to take a gain while I have one.
My return in NADX was a meager 6%, but I learned a great deal from the investment. When the stock was at $14 , I could have sold for a big loss (nearly 30%). Fortunately, I held on and sold for a small profit. |
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