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| poornewb |
 Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2007 5:04 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| What an awesome site hahaha that just goes to show that the "sheeple" as you call them just thinking they can still buy a home for retail and then jack the price up more for a profit. It used to work but not anymore!! Here in my area that practice wasnt too rampant except in maybe the higher end areas and the little towns that are booming but for the most part you had to and still have to buy them right to make a profit on a flip or rehab. Hooorayyy Texas!! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2007 5:17 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| poornewb wrote: | | What an awesome site hahaha that just goes to show that the "sheeple" as you call them just thinking they can still buy a home for retail and then jack the price up more for a profit. It used to work but not anymore!! Here in my area that practice wasnt too rampant except in maybe the higher end areas and the little towns that are booming but for the most part you had to and still have to buy them right to make a profit on a flip or rehab. Hooorayyy Texas!! |
My suggestion to anyone looking to buy a home is to stick with a very low bid and wait fo da sellers to come to you.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:13 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Yet mo evidunce dat da fokes in Cali be loony....da contract David Beckham got to play soccer in the U.S.!  Next highest salary?  Landon Donovan who makes less than $1 mil.  I hope this experiment goes reeeeal badly fo da L.A. Galaxy.....actually....bring on da giant sunami dat'll wipe out Cali soon! PLEASE!....trust me....stawtin aaaaall ova would be the best thing dat could happen to you fokes in Cali. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2007 8:48 am Post subject: |
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Hmmmm...if you were to look at summa da RE lenders you would think dat perhaps the werst was not yet ova fo RE. Of course TOL is still $10 above the 52 week low (but 20% below where it was when Cramer said the bottom for RE was in! ) so maybe TOL and summa da udder homebuilders will have to make new lows before it becomes obvious to everyone. In situations like this, ifn you own a homebuilder my advice is PANIC EARLY!!...AVOID THE RUSH!!!  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | poornewb wrote: | So if there is going to be a glut of everything once the baby boomers start down sizeing and kicking the bucket, does that mean they didnt have any kids?? Isnt the average kids per household over 2? if so there will be plenty of people moving into houses and taking up the space of all those old and ripened baby boomers.
People act like when all the baby boomers kick the bucket were going to have less people around??? WRONG!! |
We'll have wetbacks moving into the U.S. from Mex illegally. They will all work in the construction trades, do shoddy repair work, overcharge, and file leans against the baby boomers who refuse to pay...eventually taking da home in foreclosure. That demand will take up da slack of the baby boomers leaving home for Fla. |
Good point there Grim. Baby-Boomers leaving to set-up shop in FLA will be excellent for TOA, the home-builder that does most of its biz there.
TOA trades at less than half of net-working capital. With the internet age, it will be difficult to find a better value than this, as folks will screen these stocks and jump on them faster than a slut on a cucumber.... |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | Good point there Grim. Baby-Boomers leaving to set-up shop in FLA will be excellent for TOA, the home-builder that does most of its biz there.
TOA trades at less than half of net-working capital. |
That gratuitously graphic image aside, I mentioned this another time - most of the "working capital" is inventory, which can hardly be considered a liquid asset when its real estate in a down market. Use the acid test ratio and a different story emerges... buying companies at the trough of a downturn is a great idea, and real estate and related companies will be there soon - but part of the cycle is that the weak companies get shaken out. I just don't think TOA is one of the stronger companies. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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Ooooh maaaan! Da news on BZH!! Nice! Looka BZH in da wild wild west ov afterhours tradin! I'm not sho who it was but sumbudy said "The markets hate uncertainty"  But instead of being uncertain, let's "fanatasize" instead....like what if BZH really was in wit a lender anna appraiser on a scam while da housing muny spiggots were open? WOW! Now that would be neat!....specialy if like 3 er 4 udder builders and about a haffa duzen udder lenders wassa doin they own thang.  I'm wreckin da news would eventually hit even da evil empire ov GS. Oooooooh....scaaaaaaaaary. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:19 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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The other day on my site I wrote an article about why I'm optimistic about BLDR, as I think the housing market has bottomed. My play on housing here was NVR, which (in the 4/20 spirit) rolled and smoked estimates.
As I talked to Geb about this one on Monday, it was at $700 with three failed attempts to break through $735. The 16% short interest - which would take 12 days to clear - was also a compelling data point. NVR was the best housing stock in a hated sector with earnings coming up, and also a short squeeze play. The stars aligned, and NVR had a nice intra-day spike to $860. Granted, I got out closer to $800, but it was still a nice trade for me. 
Bullish on housing... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:00 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | The other day on my site I wrote an article about why I'm optimistic about BLDR, as I think the housing market has bottomed. My play on housing here was NVR, which (in the 4/20 spirit) rolled and smoked estimates.
As I talked to Geb about this one on Monday, it was at $700 with three failed attempts to break through $735. The 16% short interest - which would take 12 days to clear - was also a compelling data point. NVR was the best housing stock in a hated sector with earnings coming up, and also a short squeeze play. The stars aligned, and NVR had a nice intra-day spike to $860. Granted, I got out closer to $800, but it was still a nice trade for me.
Bullish on housing... |
Kewel!...we'll use the stock I used ta splain how da housing stocks spotted da top in RE bafo RE spotted da top in RE....which was mentioned in my article at Geb's site...the same article dat shoulda gotten me "published" since the info-may-shun was most definutly deservin ov sum kinda prize in bidness jurrnalizm. Da stock? TOL...at 29.50 ta be exact. ....which is midway betwixt where it was when Cramer called da bottom in RE....and where it ended up afta his call created the top o'da reflex afta da foist wave down! The low was 22.22...Cramer pumped from $25 thru $32....the high was 35.64....you are in at 29.50!....good luck! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:03 am Post subject: |
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| Sheeeyot....no wunder Dubya B likes BLDR....it just did a 2 day gapup ala OVTI's recent ackshun! Jinxie 1....meet Jinxie 2!!! |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2007 10:27 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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I have a feeling Grim is going to disagree with me on this, but housing is an excellent place for contrarian investors to find value. NVR worked very well for me this week, and I think there is money to be made with housing stocks.
Boom and Bust in Housing |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2007 10:48 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | I have a feeling Grim is going to disagree with me on this, but housing is an excellent place for contrarian investors to find value. NVR worked very well for me this week, and I think there is money to be made with housing stocks.
Boom and Bust in Housing |
Yeah....it evun looks like da "high risk" lenders (FMT, NFI, LEND, HMB) may have dodged a bullitt. It does appear dat da mawkets have fergiven these dawgs though huh? Anna I'm wreckin dat ifn these POS will survive....like da mawkets say they is gonna, ifn ya judge by the 200%+ across da bored premiums they was given since the 52 week lows....then a fine homebuilder POS like TOL should survive fo sho.  Maybe ya should watch LEND, FMT, NFI, n HMB fo mo clues stawtin say....oh I dunno.....next week? |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | I think the housing market has bottomed. |
I think we are close but not at the bottom. There are still way too many housing units on the market and the prices are a little out of sync with the real world.
The question is how long will the market remain stagnant when it finally come to rest at the bottom! |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2007 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Right now I am in the process of putting together a quick but hopefully comprehensive overview of several housing stocks. My goal is to have it available by Sunday night, but I'm going to the Red Sox-Yankees game (go D-Mat!) so its going to be close with the amount of time I have. Worst case is probably Monday...
Either way, results should be coming soon. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 2:09 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| frusnak wrote: | | Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | I think the housing market has bottomed. |
I think we are close but not at the bottom. There are still way too many housing units on the market and the prices are a little out of sync with the real world.
The question is how long will the market remain stagnant when it finally come to rest at the bottom! |
Here in my area ave prices are holdin steady. But ifn ya look within da local RE mawket you can already buy a nice home fer about 10K abov tax assessed value......which ainna too shabby. I'd look for rehab homes to buy right now. In genrul buyers don't like to rehab....and da flippers are now outta da mawket since buying a home and expecting to flip it fo a nice profit has been taken outta da equation. Dat means fokes trying ta sell a house in disrepair are gonna have to be most flexible on price and/or terms. Ifn you are buying a home to live in you can already find decent buys.....but sellers are still under the ether as fer as what they be axin in genrul. Hang in there....I'm werkin on it. |
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