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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 1:51 pm Post subject: NAZ 3000 |
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Investing Manager
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| My prediction is the NASDAQ will reach 3000 by the end of 2007. Pretty bold prediction, but stranger things have happened. The markets may have a minor correction in the next week or two, but will continue to move higher into next year. We may see a good correction in the spring, but after that I expect the markets to continue to rally through the end of 2007 (with small interruptions). |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:21 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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You think the Nasdaq will go up nearly 30% by December 2007? Did I read that right? Which stocks do you see as the movers behind Nasdaq 3000? 
Looks like someone has come down with an extremely bullish fever... Grim, do you have any medicine for the man? |
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| jacobnbr1 |
| Posted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| grimmie gonna have fun wit dis pre-dic-shun... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 2:16 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
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| Probably earlier than the end of next year, but I was just trying to be conservative. I hope Grim disagrees, 90% of the time he has disagreed with me I've been correct. I think the only time we've agreed on anything was with the bear calls on gold and oil. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 9:24 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| Sorry, I'm with Warren here. I just don't see what you're looking at. Care to enlighten us as to your reasoning? |
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| NCSUPAGE |
| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| I'd also like to know what gug knows that I don't... |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| Looking at the SOX, it hasn't broken 560 since '04 and doesn't look to be getting ready to do so any time soon. Seems as though it will be tough going for the Naz to hit 3000 without some help from the SOX. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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The SOX is one indicator you can look at, but what about just taking a peek at some of the big Nasdaq 100 components, and how high they are already trading relative to the 52 week high? Things like AAPL, ADBE, CMCSA, GOOG, MSFT, ORCL, RIMM, SBUX, SHLD, and SUNW are all within a few percentage points of their highs! I don't see most of those companies as having much (if any) additional value at their present prices... nor do I see where the massive amounts of money required to drive a further 25% up move will come from.
Honestly Gugaplex, you have to be in the top 1-2% of bullish investors. And coincidentally, 1-2% is the probability I give Nasdaq 3000 happening by the end of 2007. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 3:06 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
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| StatTrader wrote: | | Looking at the SOX, it hasn't broken 560 since '04 and doesn't look to be getting ready to do so any time soon. Seems as though it will be tough going for the Naz to hit 3000 without some help from the SOX. |
Any time soon? December 2007 is not that soon.... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 3:42 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Probably earlier than the end of next year, but I was just trying to be conservative. I hope Grim disagrees, 90% of the time he has disagreed with me I've been correct. I think the only time we've agreed on anything was with the bear calls on gold and oil. |
I wanted to quantify yer statement. Although you have been correct 90% o'da time...the results of yer calls have netted a grand total of 3% per pick. Dat be good enuff ta git ya on da Fast Muny Flunkies panel!  Pulling off a 30% move in the year 2007 won't even git ya to where we is now afta I'm finished wit da Naz.  |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:30 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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On the topic of quantifying statements, I ran the Nasdaq numbers back as far as they go to get some perspective on what a 30% move involves. I used a 14 month time frame since that would put us to Dec. 30, 2007 if we were to start right now... kind of interesting to think there is only 14 months between now and 2008! 
Anywho, keep in mind each day-over-day period represents a new sample. In our 8722 sample test, we have:
-There were 2839 periods where the Nasdaq composite gained over 25%.
-There were 2238 periods where the Nasdaq composite gained over 30%.
-The net compound gain of the Nasdaq is about 9%.
-During the Nasdaq bubble between Aug. 1998 and Feb. 2000, 545 of the 650 samples had a return over 25%, and 501 samples returned greater than 30%.
-When the Nasdaq has already returned 10% over the previous 14 months, it returns an additional 25% in the next 14 months 1585 times, and returns another 30% in the following 14 months 1173 times.
-Applying the "additional 25%" criteria to the bubble, 534 of the 650 samples were positive. 490 of those times the Nasdaq had a further return exceeding 30%.
Take what you will from those stats.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:37 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | On the topic of quantifying statements, I ran the Nasdaq numbers back as far as they go to get some perspective on what a 30% move involves. I used a 14 month time frame since that would put us to Dec. 30, 2007 if we were to start right now... kind of interesting to think there is only 14 months between now and 2008!
Anywho, keep in mind each day-over-day period represents a new sample. In our 8722 sample test, we have:
-There were 2839 periods where the Nasdaq composite gained over 25%.
-There were 2238 periods where the Nasdaq composite gained over 30%.
-The net compound gain of the Nasdaq is about 9%.
-During the Nasdaq bubble between Aug. 1998 and Feb. 2000, 545 of the 650 samples had a return over 25%, and 501 samples returned greater than 30%.
-When the Nasdaq has already returned 10% over the previous 14 months, it returns an additional 25% in the next 14 months 1585 times, and returns another 30% in the following 14 months 1173 times.
-Applying the "additional 25%" criteria to the bubble, 534 of the 650 samples were positive. 490 of those times the Nasdaq had a further return exceeding 30%.
Take what you will from those stats. |
At this point the only stat dat matters is the one I gave yuns bout what happens when da Fed stops its rate tightening cycle.  If you went to a casino and were told that the bet you were going to make has a 90% chance of being a loser....and a 33% chance that it would be a BIG loser....I SIRIously doubt you would place da bet. But dat be what mosta da tawkin heads are advising you ta do right now....place a bet that is historically gar-own-teed to lose you money....and very likely to cause you to meltdown financially. Thanks...but no thanks. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 153,610.18
Portfolio Value: 141,275.00
Monthly Return: -18.05%
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| I'll betcha another nickel you will be wrong... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2006 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12335.18 e$
Net worth: 153,610.18
Portfolio Value: 141,275.00
Monthly Return: -18.05%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| If the NASDAQ can eclipse 2450 to end the year, the chances of 3000 will be much higher. The economy is NOT tipping into recession (the markets are telling us otherwise), and consumers will have more discretionary spending power due to lower energy prices. Improved consumer spending and lower inflation, can anyone say late 1990's? |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2006 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | If the NASDAQ can eclipse 2450 to end the year, the chances of 3000 will be much higher. The economy is NOT tipping into recession (the markets are telling us otherwise), and consumers will have more discretionary spending power due to lower energy prices. Improved consumer spending and lower inflation, can anyone say late 1990's? |
Late 1990's? Hmmm....I dunno if I agree wit dat'n. If ya bump er up by say 2 years to 2001 I'm witcha. Now tell me....have you ever seen an evil empire in da history o'da werld dat has been so "bubbleicious" as da Bush Regime?!! I didn think so. |
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