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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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LONG TERM, IMH could reach $14 easy. With dividend payments, the TOTAL price may be much higher.
Another good pick is TOA. Check em out fer yerself...... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:29 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| esquire415 wrote: | | gugaplex wrote: | Today I purchased shares of Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH) because the stock is incredibly cheap.
Here are the numbers for IMH:
Price to Book = 0.61
PEG Ratio = 0.68
P/E Ratio = 7
Dividend Yield = 10.3% (but may lower dividend)
Profit Margin = 64%
Return on Equity = 23%
I think the real estate market will rebound from the doom and gloom scenario that is sweeping the markets. Even if things do not improve significantly, IMH is being treated by Wall Street as if they are going out of business (due to the extremely low Price/Book Ratio). |
Thx for the heads up. What is your long term price target for IMH? |
Long-term (2-3 years), I wouldn't be surprised if IMH reaches $15-16. Coupled with the 10% dividend yield, that makes for a nice return. Hopefully the dividend stands up to the short-term real estate worries.
Best of luck.... |
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| DKnightSr |
| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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Member of the Month
May
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Mmmm....for a short time leap, I'm taking MLP.  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 2:22 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| DKnightSr wrote: | | Mmmm....for a short time leap, I'm taking MLP. |
MLP looks like it could run to around $35-36 on a technical basis... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 3:24 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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I bought Chromcraft Revington (CRC) because of several reasons:
1) The stock trades at 0.80 x’s Book Value.
2) CRC sports a nifty PEG Ratio of only 0.96.
3) The 5-year chart shows extreme pessimism in the stock (which USUALLY suggests a turnaround).
4) The financial statements are pretty clean. Take a look at their Balance-Sheet, you will see that they have no “Intangible Assets” or “Good-Will”. Taking a gander at the Income Statement and Statement of Cash Flows gives the investor a clear picture of the company’s financial status. Unfortunately, it is difficult to say this for most publicly-traded companies.
CRC is profitable, and will likely increase margins as commodity prices decline. The bursting of the commodity bubble will help CRC on both the top-line and the bottom. Consumers will have more disposable income, and the fixed and variable costs will decrease for the company. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2006 6:24 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | I bought Chromcraft Revington (CRC) because of several reasons:
3) The 5-year chart shows extreme pessimism in the stock (which USUALLY suggests a turnaround).
4)Taking a gander at the Income Statement and Statement of Cash Flows gives the investor a clear picture of the company’s financial status.
CRC is profitable, and will likely increase margins as commodity prices decline. The bursting of the commodity bubble will help CRC on both the top-line and the bottom. Consumers will have more disposable income, and the fixed and variable costs will decrease for the company. |
Numbers 3 & 4 are entwined, the reason for the pessimism is the continuing slide in sales, profits, cash flows, basically everything about the company. Sales are down 25% over the last 5 years, while net income is down over 50% and free cash flow has taken a beautiful 75% swandive off a cliff. Maybe they should muddle and confuse the picture a little more.
Where do you see the turnaround coming from for this company? It should take alot more than a dip in commodity prices to resurrect this company, and while I'm far from a commodities pro I can see from the lumber futures chain that those prices aren't in a hurry to follow CRC's FCF off the cliff. I don't see the huge relation between oil/natural gas and this furniture company.
From my DCF model, a 50% drop in sales this year (analyst forecast) followed by a 50% recovery the next year, followed by 12% growth for a few years after that results in the company being fairly valued right now at a 12% discount rate. I would want a much better valuation (for return's sake - not just because I see this company as being more risky) than the current $9.50/share before buying.
The final thing I'd like to point out is that the RoIC has slipped into the value-destroying single digit range, right now I have it as a tad under 9%. CRC is apparently just beginning to outsource production (having recently announced a plant closure), which could be an indication of why they are having so much trouble controlling costs. Whenever they next release financial results, it will be interesting to watch for further erosion in the RoIC, which could signal the company is in serious trouble unless they quickly speed up their supply-chain changes. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2006 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| CRC is a short-term trade for me. I expect it to reach $11-12 in less than 6 months, yielding a 15-20% gain. As for why declining energy prices will help CRC, they must ship their supplies and finished goods to and fro before the final sale takes place. Also, consider the added disposable income for the consumer, as energy prices decline. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:42 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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I read that, and it leaves me in the dark. Of all the companies you could theoretically postulate would benefit from a drop in energy prices, why would you pick CRC? 
If you are really desperate for furniture, you could get a brand name stock, a La-Z-Boy or Furniture Brands, but no, you need a microcap thats regressing back to zero profitability full speed ahead.
I'm not going to say anything else about this for at least a week, I'm just going to sit in a corner and break down. Or maybe poke myself in the eye. Either way, I end up  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 1:14 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| You say that about every pick I make, and they all go up (in due time). Why should I agree with you now? |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| GLW is looking ripe for a buy. Waiting for the "mawkets" to fall a bit before buying.... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:26 am Post subject: Bought GLW Today @ $20.42 |
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Investing Manager
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After selling Corning (GLW) a few weeks ago for $25.46, I decided that the stock once again looks attractive. I mentioned then and I will reiterate today, Corning has a bright future due to expected growth from LCD TV's and broad-band technology. Because we are entering the historically positve period for the markets (November-April), I decided to increase the risk in my portfolio a tad. Roughly 20% of the "risk" has come out of GLW since I sold a couple weeks ago.
The markets may sputter a bit from here, but I expect the dips to be bought for the remainder of the year and into next. GLW may continue to struggle a bit as well, but I am not going to try and time the near-term bottom. |
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| frasimoto2 |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:40 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Wouldn't be surprised if GLW reaches $30 by April 2007... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| DRCT is a super hot-buy. Check out the earnings report and valuations for yourself... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2006 4:40 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| CRC is set for a break-out. $11 in 6 months or less, followed by mid teens in a year or two... |
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