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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:02 pm Post subject: GUG's HOT BUYS |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Bought NADX 2 weeks ago for $18.80, still has room to move to $23-24 easy.
Bought TOA on 10/5 for $10.11, has room to grow to $14-15. Stock trades at 0.55 x's book value, has a PEG ratio of 0.25, and is extremely over-sold.
Let me know what you think, and what your favorites are.... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 3:43 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I purchased Powerwave Technologies (PWAV) today @$5.89 because it is a great value/growth investment. The company provides technologies for wireless communications networks like Cingular and Nokia. PWAV will benefit from the coming boom in wireless broad-band speed phones (3G) that the majority of consumers will upgrade to as prices decline. Consumers will increasingly rely on their cell phones and lap-tops for more functionality such as video, internet, etc.
Another great reason for investing in PWAV is the low valuations. The stock is trading at a mere 1.06 x’s Book Value, and has a forward P/E ratio of only 14. PWAV may have lower to go over the short-term, but I would not be surprised if it hit $20 over the next 3-4 years. This makes the stock a low risk/high reward investment. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:27 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| gugaplex wrote: | I purchased Powerwave Technologies (PWAV) today @$5.89 because it is a great value/growth investment. The company provides technologies for wireless communications networks like Cingular and Nokia. PWAV will benefit from the coming boom in wireless broad-band speed phones (3G) that the majority of consumers will upgrade to as prices decline. Consumers will increasingly rely on their cell phones and lap-tops for more functionality such as video, internet, etc.
Another great reason for investing in PWAV is the low valuations. The stock is trading at a mere 1.06 x’s Book Value, and has a forward P/E ratio of only 14. PWAV may have lower to go over the short-term, but I would not be surprised if it hit $20 over the next 3-4 years. This makes the stock a low risk/high reward investment. |
At $6.31 today, decent move in two days time... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:02 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| TOA up 10% with much further up-side to go over next 6-12 months. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| NADX has great potential to reach mid $20's in few months or so. Bought at $18.80 few weeks ago. Stock is pretty cheap compared to competitors and will benefit from Baby-Boomers.... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:46 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Today I bought Triad Hospitals (TRI) for several important reasons. The first is because the stock has attractive valuations. TRI trades at 1.09 x's Book Value, has a PEG ratio of 1.06, and forward P/E ratio of 11.96.
Triad will benefit nicely from the massive demand from Baby-Boomers that will start to play itself out in the next few years. Once this demand starts picking up, it will last for decades. The older they get, the more they will be dependent on hospitals like Triad. TRI has nice exposure to the southern states, which will be a hot spot for Baby-Boomers as many relocate after retirement.
Another hospital chain similar to Triad is HCA. Private equity groups have teamed up for a leveraged buyout of HCA recently, sending the shares up 25% from the date of the announcement. With HCA trading at 4.27 x's Book Value and Triad a mere 1.09, it seems like the private equity groups have another nice value in TRI.
The company recently reported that they will have a shortfall in earnings for the quarter because of unpaid debts from certain "customers". I think this news is by far already factored in to the price. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Another hospital chain similar to Triad is HCA. Private equity groups have teamed up for a leveraged buyout of HCA recently, sending the shares up 25% from the date of the announcement. With HCA trading at 4.27 x's Book Value and Triad a mere 1.09, it seems like the private equity groups have another nice value in TRI. |
There are actually a couple important differences between HCA and Triad, and you should consider the sequence of events here. First, HCA is a much larger company than Triad... 6x on an enterprise value basis. Alot of private equity money is now tied up in hospitals. Do you think they necessarily want to plunk down another $6 billion (adjusted for premium and debt) into the same area? Additionally, HCA is a free cash flow positive company, whereas TRI is not. Whats the point of shelling out money to buy a business which will require you to burn more cash in the future? On a profitability comparison basis, the slightly higher margins HCA has mean that in metrics like EV/EBITDA they compare favorably AFTER the premium that was paid for HCA. Considering that, you have to think the private equity groups would buy out the best company in an industry they could (here, HCA) before going on to lesser companies, because the entire group gets a buy-out bump due to people thinking along your lines. If TRI was to slip even more than the recent gapdown, then I think there exists a tiny chance it could get bought out... you need to remember the purchaser will need to pay a premium, and my valuation doesn't justify a purchase of TRI anywhere in the neighborhood of $40 or even $30. But hey, I thought the Freescale (FSL) deal was ridiculous and that happened... it does seem like private equity companies have really extended their reach into capital intensive businesses, which I find odd. And unfortunately, their purchases have led to individual investors hunting for the next buyout candidate. The major question is, if it doesn't get that elusive takeover offer, where do you see the shares going? |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 12:43 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Also, consider that HCA may have better key stats than TRI, but I'm not sure they are 4 x's better as the price/book suggests (HCA 4.27 & TRI 1.09)...
MOD EDIT: Huge quote removed. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Also, consider that HCA may have better key stats than TRI, but I'm not sure they are 4 x's better as the price/book suggests (HCA 4.27 & TRI 1.09)... |
Your question got me thinking, and even though I always wonder why you insist on using book value as such a huge judge of value, I sat down and did a return on invested capital (RoIC) calculation for both companies. Gugaplex, are you familiar with RoIC? I think you'd find it very useful.
Anyways, HCA has a better RoIC than TRI, about 11% to 8%. Those rates are quite low, however, which is one reason why I don't like either of these stocks. The point of the exercise is, if you zero in on one (questionably useful) metric, you can end up missing what really matters. Is HCA four times better than TRI? It depends how you define better. But HCA generates a better return on the assets invested in it, and it has more assets. I think thats what defines a good company.
Gugaplex, do a little research into RoIC. I think you'll find it will be a useful tool for you to use. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:37 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Today I purchased shares of Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH) because the stock is incredibly cheap.
Here are the numbers for IMH:
Price to Book = 0.61
PEG Ratio = 0.68
P/E Ratio = 7
Dividend Yield = 10.3% (but may lower dividend)
Profit Margin = 64%
Return on Equity = 23%
I think the real estate market will rebound from the doom and gloom scenario that is sweeping the markets. Even if things do not improve significantly, IMH is being treated by Wall Street as if they are going out of business (due to the extremely low Price/Book Ratio). |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:42 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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Not Warren,
I use price to book as my main metric, followed by PEG ratio, fundamentals, and lastly-technicals.
I have done quite well this way, but I will do some extra research on ROIC.
Thanks for your input, good luck.... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:47 am Post subject: Re: GUG's HOT BUYS |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 1
Location: USA
15126.24 e$
Net worth: 107,550.34
Portfolio Value: 92,424.10
Monthly Return: -23.65%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| gugaplex wrote: | Bought NADX 2 weeks ago for $18.80, still has room to move to $23-24 easy.
Bought TOA on 10/5 for $10.11, has room to grow to $14-15. Stock trades at 0.55 x's book value, has a PEG ratio of 0.25, and is extremely over-sold.
Let me know what you think, and what your favorites are.... |
I sold National Dentex (NADX) today at $21.97 because the stock has risen 17% since my purchase three weeks ago. If I have a gain of over 15% in a few weeks, I will likely sell it (unless I have a much higher longer term price target). I still think the stock has room to move higher to mid $20's or above, but I just saw greener pastures considering I already logged a decent three week gain.
Last edited by gugaplex on Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:25 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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| zerolikedis |
| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:55 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| guggg i got in at 9.64 right b4 the ex divi date so that was good. thinking wil hold it un till it hits 12 or something. oh yeah .25 cents a share every quater is preety good in my book |
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| esquire415 |
| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:32 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 321
This Month: 0
117363.53 e$
Net worth: 117,363.53
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return: 0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| gugaplex wrote: | Today I purchased shares of Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH) because the stock is incredibly cheap.
Here are the numbers for IMH:
Price to Book = 0.61
PEG Ratio = 0.68
P/E Ratio = 7
Dividend Yield = 10.3% (but may lower dividend)
Profit Margin = 64%
Return on Equity = 23%
I think the real estate market will rebound from the doom and gloom scenario that is sweeping the markets. Even if things do not improve significantly, IMH is being treated by Wall Street as if they are going out of business (due to the extremely low Price/Book Ratio). |
Thx for the heads up. What is your long term price target for IMH? |
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