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| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:04 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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HUI/POG ratio moved up anudder point to 52.68% today....so da goldpig stocks got even more overbought today. Just thunk I'd warn da goldbugs agin. I always try n give em plenty o'notice so they can't say I didn't warn em.  Goldbugs are basically like a drunk who knows there is going to be a sobriety check roadblock on Route 21 because it was announced ahead o'time in da local newspaper according to state law. So what does a typical goldbug do? He goes out and gets stinky drunk and then takes Route 21 fo da ride home!  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:57 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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HUI/POG ratio now stands at 52.86%. That means less than 3 more % points and Jim Cramer can start touting some gold stocks again! Let's watch tonight's Mad Monkey show and see if he throws in the towel on CSX and gives da nod to some goldies....or werse yet....some energy pigs! On a side note....GLW now appears to be almost 50% below the level where Cramer said to buy...and so does AMZN. Yuns kin sell now. Thanks Jim!   |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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One last update on the HUI/POG ratio. It fell to 50.71% today but like me always said...that final run is da one that makes ya wish you was on board....if ya play da proper vehicle that is. Into the close the gold tracking stock GLD signaled sell and sold off slightly...that's bullish. We may get a chance to see how gold is sometimes a flight to perceived safety. Why would fokes run to perceived safety? Jeeez...I dunno. I'm wreckin if stocks in general sold off it would cause em ta do it. I mentioned in a previous post that I saw the possibility of $670 gold before the collapse of gold but we shall see. I played a possible flight to safety 2 ways in these paper tradin games I fool wit. I own da VIX volatility index from 14.23....today I took a position in a gold stock here in e$ I mentioned a couple of em that haven't seen final top yet. There is one that I feel will be better than the one I actually played and I mentioned it in that post.  When this rally in da goldpigs runs its course I feel the best bet you can make against the trend would be to buy puts in NG. When I checked yesterday the $15 puts for Dec were trading at .35! I think that proposed merger they are doing will fall apart.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:26 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | gugaplex wrote: | | If I were to short either gold or oil, I would rather short gold because it is not as big a necessity to everyday life as oil is. I think both are way over-valued. You are right about how the gold bulls are realizing their mistakes before the oil bulls, just look at how gold has come well off its peak and oil is still hovering near it. |
Logically speaking, gold should lead oil lower since gold is more of an inflation play. I think we will see gold head lower before oil does but I would give gold an outside shot at hitting $670 first. Right now the gold stocks are on their last run so they will turn before anything else. Then the energy pig stocks will begin selling off after the great earnings reports. |
I'll still give physical gold an outside shot at hitting $670. It came close today but ad da peak today the HUI/POG ratio stood at 53.55%, less than 2% away from chort da ranch territory...although spot futures fo gold traded above $665 I think. The 2 plays I mentioned that were the best longs into this last run were MNG which stood at 3.30 when I made my call, and AEMLW which I rode up partially into the end o'last munth to get my overall % gain up here in da lad o'da trade sim. MNG clearly outshined the rest. I made AEMLW my play for da Hot Potato game....let's see how that'n finishes out the day. I see the energy pigs are strugglin too. Nice! |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 6:50 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15197.52 e$
Net worth: 127,825.52
Portfolio Value: 112,628.00
Monthly Return: -5.84%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Gold may rally after FED today, I suggest using as a good selling opp. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 6:56 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | Gold may rally after FED today, I suggest using as a good selling opp. |
Good selling opp no matter what da Fed does. HUI/POG ratio at yesterday's close was 53%. My weapons of choice? AEMLW n NG....jist fo fun! Hold for long term drops in all mining stocks to new 52 week lows. The HUI will break below 175 when all is said n dunn. The next inflationary wave begins when the Fed is forced to lower rates because of plunging asset values...homes, stocks, etc. Of course that isn't gonna happen until the fed freezes first so let's all pray fo no mo rate hikes...shall we? |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 8:17 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | gugaplex wrote: | | Gold may rally after FED today, I suggest using as a good selling opp. |
Good selling opp no matter what da Fed does. HUI/POG ratio at yesterday's close was 53%. My weapons of choice? AEMLW n NG....jist fo fun! Hold for long term drops in all mining stocks to new 52 week lows. The HUI will break below 175 when all is said n dunn. The next inflationary wave begins when the Fed is forced to lower rates because of plunging asset values...homes, stocks, etc. Of course that isn't gonna happen until the fed freezes first so let's all pray fo no mo rate hikes...shall we? |
Yes! Da Fed does the right thing! I'm sho glad Bernanke is still coming to this site for my advice! There is now a good chance that Naz 2235 will be breached in the short term....but a 90% chance that the indicies will be lower than current levels within 6 months. A 33% chance the Naz will be 20%+ lower....all based on past history of what hapens afta da Fed freezes. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 8:33 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Saweeet! Toinin n boinin already! I wonder if this will finally shut Crudlow n Cramer up about Bernake! Actually, I would look at this selloff as a buy opp....that is, if ya remember da numba I gave yuns fo da Naz gap that needed to close. If ya didn't...well....fugya's!  |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Wed Aug 09, 2006 6:18 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15197.52 e$
Net worth: 127,825.52
Portfolio Value: 112,628.00
Monthly Return: -5.84%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Gold can't gain momentum despite how bad the news is in the Mid-East and how high oil prices are trading. Look for a big drop once the dust settles... |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 10:48 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15197.52 e$
Net worth: 127,825.52
Portfolio Value: 112,628.00
Monthly Return: -5.84%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Aweful day for gold! Terror hi-jacking attempt causes a sell-off. No where but down from here!!! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 5:54 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Stoopid goldbugs...I read a post the udder day from one of them where he was actually hoping Iran gets nuked so it will save his sorry a$$ cause he is margined long into gold pig stocks. I jist luv seeing idiots like dat get deeeeestroyed. HUI/POG ratio still at 53% even as both are gapping down! Dumasses! DIE PIGS! DIE! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sun Aug 13, 2006 7:11 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Seems like a good time to give my take on what the "ex-spurts" will say as opposed to my outlook on inflayshun. Basically, fokes are still going to judge Bernanke going forward. Just this past week the consumer spending numbers came out "hotter" than da mawkets expected. In essence....inflation is "too much money chasing too few goods." The argument of the anti-Reaper brigade is going to be that spending in general will remain strong now that rates are possibly going to hold steady (potential inflation). BUT! The bond market is actually saying that the next cycle will be a loosening cycle as rates on 10 year instruments are now balow 5%. Obviously, sumbody is going to be wrong. But I am on the side of da bond mawkets fo da record right cheeya. I believe that fokes will look at their debt situation and the fact that their home values are not appreciating like they was.....that will cause the consumer to at least eliminate "frivolous" purchases. And of course that be the foist step to pulling in the reigns even further. We can see where corporate America is using their cash windfall....buybacks n buyouts. I suspect the trend will remain the same as corporate execs would prefer to buy stock as opposed to goods n services IF prices for said goods n services actually fall instead of rise as da Reaper pundits would expect them to do. So basically this is an argument that prosperity continues based on what a freeze by the Fed "should" dictate....as Larry Krudlow et all see it....vs my assumtion that there is already a glut of inventory and a round of decreasing demand (oil, commodities, etc, etc) which may or may not throw the economy into recession. I say it doesn't....it'll just be a matter of working off excesses. Da conundrum? IMO, the excesses are so well hidden that nobody even recognizes them under current conditions. Should be veeeery interesting times ahead....I'm excited!! Arenchu?!! |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:57 am Post subject: Another weak day for gold.... |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15197.52 e$
Net worth: 127,825.52
Portfolio Value: 112,628.00
Monthly Return: -5.84%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| I'm kinda scared because there aren't any gold bugs in this forum like most others I visit. Perhaps the users of this forum are a bit smarter than the others? |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Another weak day for gold.... |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | I'm kinda scared because there aren't any gold bugs in this forum like most others I visit. Perhaps the users of this forum are a bit smarter than the others? |
Maybe they come out at night when you are asleep....just like any household creepy crawley. Next time you turn on da lights and ya see a goldbug in yer kitchen try this....flip it over on its back. They spin like a top on their hard candy shell. It's purty neat ta watch! Oh yeah, HUI/POG ratio still at a grossly overvalued 52%. Da goldbugs that are around won't be around much longer....dats fo sho! |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:51 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 580
This Month: 0
Location: USA
15197.52 e$
Net worth: 127,825.52
Portfolio Value: 112,628.00
Monthly Return: -5.84%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Gold could drop significantly from these levels as it simply can not garner any momentum. Look for sub $600's over the next few weeks or so... |
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