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| gugaplex |
 Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2006 7:58 am Post subject: New Trend For Gold? |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
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| It's starting to look more and more evident that gold's peaking at $720/oz will be a long-term high. I believe that gold is going down considerably over the next few years. There will be "dead-cat" bonces along the way, but the true trend will likely take gold sub $500.... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:21 pm Post subject: Re: New Trend For Gold? |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | It's starting to look more and more evident that gold's peaking at $720/oz will be a long-term high. I believe that gold is going down considerably over the next few years. There will be "dead-cat" bonces along the way, but the true trend will likely take gold sub $500.... |
What may really sooprise da goldbugs is the fact that the precious metal pig stocks barely budged today if you look at the ratio I gave everyone to guage value...HUI/POG. The HUI stock index and the price of physical gold both fell a tremendous amount for a single day move. But the ratio still stayed at grossly overvalued 51%....only a 1% change from yesterday. Anything above 50% is grossly overvalued. Anything above 55% is territory where you can expect a buy call from Cramer.  Long term buy zone? 33% or lower.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 3:53 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Even after yesterday's debacle the HUI/POG ratio still stands at an extremely overvalued 50%+ level. If there are any goldbugs here you guys had better start thinking about reworking yer plan. That means you either hold steady on the price of the stocks in the HUI index whilst you rally the price of physical gold OR....hold the price of gold steady whilst you dump your gold pig stocks. Not sure yuns guys like either option but so far yuns look like a bunch of idiots piss'n into a gale force wind! Freakin goldbugs, I never could figure those clowns out. Maybe we should just douse em wit a large quantity of industrial strength Raid bug killer. Just jokin goldbugs, I actually luv you guys cause you are sooooo very clueless. Did you ever hear of a guy named Jim Cramer?  |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:14 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| I would not be quick to call $720 the high in gold given the US Current Account deficit. Gold may very well be peaking as valued against a basket of currencies but to call $720 the high assumes that the dollar will not weaken substantially of the next few years due to the HUGE trade deficits that we have. That is one assumption that is dangerous to draw and should be backed up by more than just wishful thinking. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 6:26 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | | I would not be quick to call $720 the high in gold given the US Current Account deficit. Gold may very well be peaking as valued against a basket of currencies but to call $720 the high assumes that the dollar will not weaken substantially of the next few years due to the HUGE trade deficits that we have. That is one assumption that is dangerous to draw and should be backed up by more than just wishful thinking. |
It isn't wishful thinkin Stat. It's valid chawt analysis...plus the ratio I gave you has never failed either. Like me said, you can go back to 2001 and use the ratio to see where it was just after 9/11 and you will begin to see why there was this bull run. The ratio at that time was at 20% but nobody wanted to buy gold or gold stocks because they were dead money....just like MSFT is right now for instance. BTW, MSFT will one day rule the world and everbudy will one day be wondering why they were all so hyped up about GOOG! I think you will begin to see dat manifest itself with GOOG on Mon although MSFT still needs to capitulate. Gettin back to da goldies. Of all da gold stocks I follow there are only 3 that I know of that left nonconfirmed price of trend highs during this last speculative bubble run. Those 3 are MNG, NXG, and RGLD. All the rest left no reason why they should EVER see these highs again...including the HUI index itself....sorry.  But your argument is in fact what makes a mawket. Like me also said bafo.....sum will win.....sum will lose. I'm just tryin ta keep fokes on da right side o'da mawkets cause like my mission statement says, "I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to save you muuuneee! |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:02 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
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12333.66 e$
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Take a look at the ten-year chart for gold. It resembles NASDAQ 2000. There may be some further upside, but if you feel comfortable with that risk/reward scenario you might as well just go to Vegas and play the slot machines.
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| jwelch999 |
| Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:35 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 06 Jul 2006
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Nasdaq in 2000... That is quite foreshadowing... glad I exited the yellow stuff earlier... might miss a continued speculation, but grim and guga are right on this one... It will get ugly at some point...
J |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Sun Jul 23, 2006 4:08 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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Grim,
Your argument assumes that the dollar will NOT drop substantially against a basket of currencies over the next few years yet you have not stated anything to back that up.
My statement is that against currencies such as the yuan and euro gold may very well be at a long term high. But if the dollar drops substantially then gold may not be at a high as measured against the dollar.
As stated in my post, please back up that assumption with something more than wishful thinking. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:42 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | Grim,
Your argument assumes that the dollar will NOT drop substantially against a basket of currencies over the next few years yet you have not stated anything to back that up.
My statement is that against currencies such as the yuan and euro gold may very well be at a long term high. But if the dollar drops substantially then gold may not be at a high as measured against the dollar.
As stated in my post, please back up that assumption with something more than wishful thinking. |
Even though inflation is s'posed ta be a decrease in demand fo da dallah I'm not at all convinced that things go the way they's "s'posed" to in the fast paced werld afta 9/11. There were lots of things that was s'posed to happen based on what is normal but what we ended up with was a bunch of "conundrums" Even Alan Greenwad da former fed chairman was confounded by them. The first wave up in gold which began in late 2001 was not because of inflationary pressures IMO. And I think this second wave up off the sub 200 HUI low was nothing more than da playas riding the crest o'da wave o'the "obvious" to sucker in all of da bagholders. We won't have to worry about inflation for at least a few years as the wave of much lower commodity prices are just about to begin. Like I said many many times bafo....if ya want da truth about any sector of the economy....simply look to da stock mawket. If you want da truth about da stock mawket....loook to da chawts. If you can't recognize what the price of the energy, precious metal, and industrial metal stocks were saying even as the price of the commodities were making higher highs there there are 2 things you can do. Either wait for the stock prices to catch up to commodity prices like the anal-ysts CNBC parades on screen all day long are saying's gonna happen. Or wait for it to become more obvious. I already know EXACTLY wassa gonna happen though. Trust me, you'll like doing things my way cause it'll cost you 30% less to fill up yer car wit petrol benzine! What the future is saying past 2 years from now remains to be seen. As of right now the energy stocks, the commodity stocks, the precious metal stocks are on their way to new 52 week lows. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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HUI/POG ratio moved back above 51% again today. See dat, I told ya those goldbugs were a stoopid bunch....they can't even pay attention! Lemme splain it again golden idiots....if you sell yer physical gold like you did today AND you buy the stocks....it means the ratio moves farther into overbought territory...got it duma$$es?  Jeeesh, these goldbugs are thicker then a brick....maybe I should jist dust em right now and put em outta their misery.  I do like da way the oil pig stocks are willing to deliver da bag o'goods to da bagholders going into earnuns week fer da oil pig stocks. Still waitin fo TXU to get above $62.00. Came close today and I will add it as a new personal chort using the $55 strike far enough out to get dat warm n comfy feeling where the cost is not to dear ta play. I think the goldbugs will come to their senses a tad earlier than the energy pig playas....probably as a matter of necessity rather than choice though. Like me said, da goldbugs are an extremely stoopid bunch. |
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| gugaplex |
| Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:54 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
Joined: 01 Jul 2006
Posts: 572
This Month: 0
Location: USA
12333.66 e$
Net worth: 142,562.66
Portfolio Value: 130,229.00
Monthly Return: -24.46%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| If I were to short either gold or oil, I would rather short gold because it is not as big a necessity to everyday life as oil is. I think both are way over-valued. You are right about how the gold bulls are realizing their mistakes before the oil bulls, just look at how gold has come well off its peak and oil is still hovering near it. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:05 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| gugaplex wrote: | | If I were to short either gold or oil, I would rather short gold because it is not as big a necessity to everyday life as oil is. I think both are way over-valued. You are right about how the gold bulls are realizing their mistakes before the oil bulls, just look at how gold has come well off its peak and oil is still hovering near it. |
Logically speaking, gold should lead oil lower since gold is more of an inflation play. I think we will see gold head lower before oil does but I would give gold an outside shot at hitting $670 first. Right now the gold stocks are on their last run so they will turn before anything else. Then the energy pig stocks will begin selling off after the great earnings reports. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:24 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| I'm still holding my CVX position. Got in at the $57-$58 level and see no reason to jump ship yet. Production capacity and demand are very delicately balanced right now. Until that situtaion changes I don't see much downside in oil. And no, I'm not referring to inventory, I said production capacity! Two different things. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:33 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | | I'm still holding my CVX position. Got in at the $57-$58 level and see no reason to jump ship yet. Production capacity and demand are very delicately balanced right now. Until that situtaion changes I don't see much downside in oil. And no, I'm not referring to inventory, I said production capacity! Two different things. |
To me it looks like the next few days falls into "no safe haven" category. Here's a good long though...$VIX.X. |
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| blackfoxtrade |
| Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:55 am Post subject: |
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Associate
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| An article by Kiyosaki at Yahoo! Finance today. Here! |
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