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| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | The XOI oil stock index is now rallying off a sell signal which is bearish. XOI currently at 1050ish. I don't have a particular numba in mind as far as how high the current rally will take the energy pigs....but I will say this. The selloff that ensues after this rally is complete will go a loooong way to convince a few of the bullish anal-ysts that perhaps their outlook was wrong. We will go from 95% bullish anal-ysts to 87% bullish anal-ysts. Then I will slowly woik on da rest of em.  Expect the goldpigs to hit da skids around the same time the energy pigs do. Tawget on da next wave down in da energy pigs? XOI to 900....minimum!  |
Purty interesting chawt setups at da close. Let's scratch what I said bout da gold pigs following the energy pigs down from da getgo. To me it looks like there will be a flight to "perceived" safety tamarrah based on da way the HUI chawt sold off ever so slightly after today's sell signal....dat's bullish. I doan know why there would be a flight to safety....maybe everybody gonna be runnin skeeered er sumthin. What day is tamarrah anyway? Tue? Wed? Th?  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2006 2:41 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Sheeeeyot! I ran a quick errand to da post orafice and da futures was up like 15 points....I come back and dey be down 11!!! OK! OK! I'm back now! I didn't think da mawkets would miss me dat much!  Looks like me previous perdixshun may be a comin true though. Here's anudder regarding da energy pigs. This rediculous buying spree announced this moanin bout Anadarko is a sure sign of absolute top. Foist of all...they are paying about 10 times what each WGR n the udder pig be werth. Second, they are getting financed to the tune of mo than what their current market cap be werth! What are you goofy?!! Perdixshun: This deal will fall apart befo it ever closes in Sept.  |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:39 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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I'm going to agree with Grim's logic but not his entire conclusion. I think this move by Anadarko (ticker:APC) is puzzling because of the massive amount of debt they are going to add... over $21 billion for a company with only $11 billion in shareholder equity. Unlike some other oil companies (read: Exxon) Anadarko doesn't kick off huge amounts of cash in its present state and as such will have to finance the deal.
Western Gas Resources (WGR) is not cash flow positive and has about $500 million in net debt which Anadarko will need to assume. They are trading at more than 3 times book value now too, so I don't see what is inspiring Anadarko to buy them...
Kerr-McGee (KMG) is cash flow positive, with over $1 billion in ttm FCF, and a company with a price-free cash flow of 15 certainly isn't bad, but KMG does have about $2.5 billion in debt and also has a price to book near 3.
Both companies being purchased also sport PEGs over 1... I'm just not seeing what good lies in this deal for Anadarko. I think it basically boils down to this: at the pre-takeover price, the stocks were pretty good buys... but at a 45-50% premium, they lose the valuation which makes them attractive. Shame I never heard of WGR or KMG before this morning...  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jun 28, 2006 2:59 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| There is a better than 80% chance that the oil bubble bursts starting today. Good news just in time! Our fearless leaders are now actually putting together bills to free up more energy which will eventually have them drilling in yer back yard! Looks like ole Warren Buffett made a big mistake with his purchase of COP stock right in cheeeeya at da top. In the end he will be proven as wrong about his investment as he was about his chort in da U.S. dallah waaaay too prematurely....which he eventually was proven correct about. Oh well, even da best investors are proven wrong sometimes. Hang in the Warren. I just hope you and Bernanke are still following along witme posts! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:57 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| OMNI, watch this scam of a company crumble. The insiders did everything in their power to hoodwink the unsuspecting public over the past few days. Time to pay da piper. Will it fall 30%+ within a week? Parbubly. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:28 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Jist anudder lesson in da blind leadin da blind. When the energy pig stocks all collapse jist remember what me told ya's bout da commodity leading the stocks. That is exactly what happened during this last rally in da stocks....crude led. You will soon see sumthin dat'll leave da anal-ysts confounded. At that time I want ya's to remember who warned ya. The XOI will be trading below 1000 within 1 week....on its way to 900 and more than that. Enjoy da carnage! |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:37 am Post subject: |
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| Grim you have been saying the same thing for 3 or 4 months now. Chicken little, lol. Eventually if you say it enough times, then you could be right but really your just speculating. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:06 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| vetelmo wrote: | | Grim you have been saying the same thing for 3 or 4 months now. Chicken little, lol. Eventually if you say it enough times, then you could be right but really your just speculating. |
Doan ferget this'n too! "There has never been a serious stock mawket crash n boin on a Tue, Wed, or Th" Of course dat doan apply to da energy pigs. What day is today anyway?  BTW, I'm not speculating....da fokes playin da energy pigs are. |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:01 am Post subject: |
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When you keep changing the timing of your big market crash, your specualting. So far you have been wrong 100% of the time regarding everything crashing. The only ting that has happened since you started your chicken little routine is the metals and energy went up and back down to what they were, no crash.
Your just as bad at your speculative predicting as Cramer, lol. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:09 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| vetelmo wrote: | When you keep changing the timing of your big market crash, your specualting. So far you have been wrong 100% of the time regarding everything crashing. The only ting that has happened since you started your chicken little routine is the metals and energy went up and back down to what they were, no crash.
Your just as bad at your speculative predicting as Cramer, lol. |
Well...like I said bafo...I'm in no hurry to time a mawket crash cause I already bees findin baaaahgins. I doan know why you's in suchcha hurry. I promise ya. When you see da big selloff you will be a wundrin why ya axed fo it! |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:12 am Post subject: |
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| LOL, Im in no hurry for the market to crash. You look past my point that you are wrong, each and every time, you big expert you. Where did you get your expertise training again? Wasn't from cerial boxes?? lol |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:33 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| vetelmo wrote: | | LOL, Im in no hurry for the market to crash. You look past my point that you are wrong, each and every time, you big expert you. Where did you get your expertise training again? Wasn't from cerial boxes?? lol |
Wrrro....wrrrooo.....wrrr.....me?! You are joking, right?! I mean....you've seem my literally hundreds of unbaleaveable calls....including da ones I let you make fo me. Showly you twasn't tawkin bout moi! To anser yer nudder question, I learned brain surgery n stock tradin on da internut. I gots me collection of toys I play wit on da weekends in cereal boxes. |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:10 am Post subject: |
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| Yes you've made hundreds of unbelievable calls of which a small handfull have been right. Big woopdidoo! I think Im going to start calling you GrimCramer, lmao! The only person more wrong than you is Bush and his WMD's..... |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| Just as a cou[ple examples, you have said for two months in a row that your expert pick of SGTL would win the competition because it finally hit one of your many entry point changes,lol. Oh wait and then you said Nelaina's pick of HSR would end up -30%, but yet it seems to be holding the top. I can keep going on and on but that would take up too much time,lol. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:39 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| vetelmo wrote: | | Just as a cou[ple examples, you have said for two months in a row that your expert pick of SGTL would win the competition because it finally hit one of your many entry point changes,lol. Oh wait and then you said Nelaina's pick of HSR would end up -30%, but yet it seems to be holding the top. I can keep going on and on but that would take up too much time,lol. |
No I didn't. lemme tell ya what I actually said and hopefully this time you'll pay atttention....or git yer little infant ta splain it to ya since you seem to be doing a tad better since you handed ova da reigns. What I said bout SGTL was that it needed to trade to a certain price point and da price point was well balow where I was forced to take a position according to da rules of yer stoopid game ova yonder. That was back in May. By the end of May it still hadn't reached me tawget....but it was be only off by about 15-20% so I thunk I'd run it agin. Otay. Now. As da price aproached me tawget a signal came in telling me da price was going even lower. That's when I posted bout it on da June bored. Since then a new signal came in saying it was going even lower! So da bottom line is that although I was forced to take the pick based on your stupid rules I correctly called fo lower prices....jist like me said yer POS KOPN is going lower. So be careful or I'll lower da tawget on ya agin!
As far as HSR I'll stick witme outlook. It will not win this munths competition I do not believe. It really all depends on what they do mit da Naz tamarrah. I said da bulls will be sorry if they go ahead and confirm the last major trend high at 2235 with a higher high befo they take it down. They could still do that tammarrah and then we will have da setup for crash n boin. It doan matta which way they do it as far as I'm concerned. If HSR was shortable it would be one of the best short term chorts there is out there. It will trade through 10.00 to 6.00 all in the first wave down. And that move could happen within a few trading days. Don't fear da Reaper....just fear gettin yer butt whooped if ya actually be long this pig of a stock HSR. |
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