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| StatTrader |
 Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 2:13 pm Post subject: VC |
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Member Of The Month! April
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I've been missing in action for a bit but thought I'd jump back into the fray. This one just popped up on my radar screen this evening. I'm planning to pick some up at the open.
After peaking at almost $11/shr last September, this stock has taken a beating. In the process of dropping over 60%, it managed to create a nice clean down trend line which it broke decisively today on a big surge in volume.
My target price is $6.35 within the next two to three months. It is very possible that it will drop back down to the $4.60-$4.70 range before making the climb, that kind of retracement seems to occur about 30% of the time when we get breakouts like this one.
Chart created using TC2005 from the Worden Bros. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 7:32 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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I don't want to make a definitive call on Visteon, because (as it seems to be increasingly common) its about 1:30 am and I don't know if I'm entirely coherent, but anyways...
The main problem I see with buying Visteon after todays 10% move is that I don't think it was justified. I haven't run anything on VC through my model, but from what I'm reading the move in Visteon was due to the hiring on a new executive who would "promote growth opportunities" or something similar. Anyone buying Visteon needs to know that over 60% of their business is supplying Ford (F) with parts, a less-than-enviable market position considering that Ford is slashing manufacturing capacity everywhere it can.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles?id=n20060419131509990005 |
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| card2u |
| Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:46 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| With Auto sales down at Ford this stock should be effected. I don't see this stock as a good buy. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 1:31 am Post subject: Re: VC |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | I've been missing in action for a bit but thought I'd jump back into the fray. This one just popped up on my radar screen this evening. I'm planning to pick some up at the open.
After peaking at almost $11/shr last September, this stock has taken a beating. In the process of dropping over 60%, it managed to create a nice clean down trend line which it broke decisively today on a big surge in volume.
My target price is $6.35 within the next two to three months. It is very possible that it will drop back down to the $4.60-$4.70 range before making the climb, that kind of retracement seems to occur about 30% of the time when we get breakouts like this one.
Chart created using TC2005 from the Worden Bros. |
I think it is one to start trackin but I doan think DA BOTTOM will come in until sub $3. We may see a rally in F as a result of a steep decline in oil based on comments by Iran, and VC may follow, but I wouldn't chase the current rally in VC or any rally in F. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 5:56 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 6:17 am Post subject: |
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Member of The Month
March
Joined: 26 Jan 2006
Posts: 1407
This Month: 0
11455.00 e$
Net worth: 11,455.00
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return: 0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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They've lost over $2.5b over the last 3 quarters. They look like a failing compamy to me. They have made a great gain so far today though just now they were up by about 8-9%. You'll be needing some good luck with it in the long run though, I think.  |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| I exited today at $5.98. When a stock races too quickly toward my target I don't get greedy, I get out. |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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Member of The Month
March
Joined: 26 Jan 2006
Posts: 1407
This Month: 0
11455.00 e$
Net worth: 11,455.00
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return: 0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Good play. |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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Member of The Month
March
Joined: 26 Jan 2006
Posts: 1407
This Month: 0
11455.00 e$
Net worth: 11,455.00
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return: 0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I am glad to see you are working a portfolio here now.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | | I exited today at $5.98. When a stock races too quickly toward my target I don't get greedy, I get out. |
Nice! Looks like you are gonna stick em right where da stickins gonna get painful!  The only thing I can say at this point is that if you had bought low enough and had already owned for several months it is sometimes wise to hold at least a small stake. that stake could easily surprise you sometimes! If it keeps sooprisin fo 1 full year you get a nice tax benefit....under current tax laws of course.  |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:47 am Post subject: |
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Member Of The Month! April
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| When a stock takes its time going up then I''m not in a hurry to exit. I'm still holding my position in PPG which I recommended here a while back. It is up over 10% since the recommendation but it has taken its time. Until the stock starts acting badly I'll continue to hold, well past any price targets. Its when a stock makes a sudden steep climb, like VC yesterday, that I head for the hills. Steep climbs are generally unsustainable and stocks that have them often drop as quickly as they climb. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:56 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | | When a stock takes its time going up then I''m not in a hurry to exit. I'm still holding my position in PPG which I recommended here a while back. It is up over 10% since the recommendation but it has taken its time. Until the stock starts acting badly I'll continue to hold, well past any price targets. Its when a stock makes a sudden steep climb, like VC yesterday, that I head for the hills. Steep climbs are generally unsustainable and stocks that have them often drop as quickly as they climb. |
I hear ya! wait'll the ethanol frenzied crowd find out where they end up....and believe it or not sum fokes is probably gonna average down cause they think a stock like PEIX or ANDE will be coming back soon! like ethanol is some big wave o da future er sumthin.  |
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