| Do you think you would purchase this stock? |
| It's a Bull - BUY! |
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11% |
[ 1 ] |
| It's a Bear - DON'T BUY! |
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88% |
[ 8 ] |
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| Total Votes : 9 |
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| Author |
Message
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| frusnak |
 Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: Valueclick - VCLK |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | It doesn't have alot of debt?
Thats what I find to be good about it. My fairly aggressive DCF says it shouldn't have crossed $18.50 last year, and a more realistic projection is about $17.40, so I don't think its that good of a deal. Unless they have an incredible 4th quarter to close the year like they did last time, it could be worth about $14.75, meaning it is more than 25% overpriced. And when I say it needs to be incredible, they need to take in more than they made in the rest of the year.
My two cents: I would stay away from it. |
 I agree that its over priced but (devil's advocate) look at google  |
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| geb9696 |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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Investing VP
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| Just because something else is overprice it does not mean that every stock will run up. Also to make a note on google and these other stocks that everyone keeps buying into at extremely high prices. "A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock." |
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| nelaina |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 5:49 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| frusnak wrote: | Wow, this looks like a really good idea as a learning/investing tool for all of Us!
Going by something in Dave's reply about competition from google and yahoo. I personally would be very cautious about investing in this company. Maybe a short term buy but I think it's too risky for the long haul.
I' bearish on this one. Excellent response from everyone so far though!  |
yeah this was a good idea...and just to mention that it was NOT my idea, i just agreed with it and took frusnak's suggestion and started it off.
about the company, I think the main point here is the competition. I cant really add anything that hasnt been said already well except for the fact that over the past month and a half i have watched this stock move from 17.50 to the current price. My main challenge with this company was establishing their exact competition, their edge, and their sustainability. |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| geb9696 |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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Investing VP
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| I did my research for the stock. It consisted mainly of going and seeing how they make their earnings and what future things may effect that. I also then went and took the growth numbers and played around with then in my DCF model. After doing all of that I decided that the stock is overvalued. Like Im Not Warren Buffett said the company has to have a great 4th quarter in order to come close to last years profits. I got the a target price of 19.44 a share when I used yahoo's growth numbers. When I adjusted the growth numbers to what morningstar is predicting their income for this year I got around 13.5 a share. This with the fact that they compete agaisnt google and the like I would have to say it is a sell if you own it and a dont buy otherwise. If I had to either buy it or short it I would feel somewhat comfortable shorting it to around 17. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2006 4:50 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Pretty simple TA on VCLK, the last major trend low was at 18ish on 12/30, traded to a trend top of 20.60 on 1/8, later confirmed that high with a higher high, it is now in da process of possibly switching from sell mode to buy mode as a buy signal came in just yesterday, but there is nothing on da chawt that says VCLK has to move higher than the 52 week high, so far it is holding the 20.60 trend top high from 1/8, one of 2 things could happen so here be the options.
1. VCLK sells off after this buy signal which would be bullish, wait for the selling to stop and then buy if and only if it gets back up through 20.60 because if it doesn't it will be in trouble, if it does get back up through 20.60 sell all at 23.50ish and short.
2. VCLK rallies off this buy signal which is bearish, short at 23.50ish
Either way I think the play that will offer the best returns will be to short VCLK using out of the money puts at least 2 months out with a target of a retest of at least 18.00 which was the 12/30 trend low price, VCLK more than doubled in 1 year and is trading at or near a 52 week high, a stock like this will not survive the coming market selloff, just my opinion ova heeya! |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2006 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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This was a good series of posts on this stock. I think we have done a really good job on this stock!
Isn't geb supposed to pick one for next week? |
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| The Big One |
| Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 10:55 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
Joined: 11 Jan 2006
Posts: 52
This Month: 0
26313.86 e$
Net worth: 26,313.86
Portfolio Value: 0.00
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| He said that he will post it on Monday. |
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| nelaina |
| Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:27 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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im sorry but im still bullish on this one  |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:29 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Don't be sorry for standing by your decisions1  |
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| nelaina |
| Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:34 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| frusnak wrote: | | Don't be sorry for standing by your decisions1 |
haha well im not really sorry, but i guess im just saying im sorry, i have to go against the majority once again. |
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| The Big One |
| Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:36 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
Joined: 11 Jan 2006
Posts: 52
This Month: 0
26313.86 e$
Net worth: 26,313.86
Portfolio Value: 0.00
Monthly Return: 0.00%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| It is fine to diagree with the majority. The majority is often wrong so I would not worry about it. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 2:08 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| The Big One wrote: | | It is fine to diagree with the majority. The majority is often wrong so I would not worry about it. |
If the majority is often wrong then the market in general is in trouble since the vast majority of anal-ysts and investors alike are so very bullish, if da mawkets tumble than any stock that has doubled in the past 12 months probably sees at least some sort of a retracement, and stocks that tripled or quadrupled are in a world of chit! I sho feel sorry fo da fokes who went long a stock like NTRI on Fri, aren choo?! actually, the fokes who went long NTRI on Fri will have a chance to rethink their positions since NTRI will first take out the 52 week high before it crashes and boins |
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| geb9696 |
| Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 9:40 am Post subject: |
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Investing VP
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| I think the markets are going to take a tumble next year. Could it happen right now? Yes but I think it will take a bit longer for the market to correct. |
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| Vester |
| Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 10:54 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| geb9696 wrote: | | I think the markets are going to take a tumble next year. Could it happen right now? Yes but I think it will take a bit longer for the market to correct. |
The market has been at 12,000 is it possible it's correcting upwards? |
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