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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
 Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 9:16 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| frusnak wrote: |  As you all know I am a big fan of fuel cell technology and other alternative power sources to help break the strangle hold that big oil has on this country.
How ever except for coal to gas and solar these alternates are considered to be in the developemental stage. It will take another big crunch to get the market focusing on all of the choices we have versus oil. |
You have Lee Raymond, the departing head of Exxon Mobil (XOM) to thank for that. He vigorously fought efforts to fund research into alternate fuels, and attacked fellow oil companies that did. Say what you want, he defended his shareholders... |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 9:56 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Good info warren. BP and Shell are going forward though with their developement of hydrgen fueling station and related supports. This is the kind of thinking and actions by a big business that will keep them leaders in energy. |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 2:47 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Cramer spoke positively about Solar Power again today on Mad Money. SPWR and DSTI both benefited in after hours trading. |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 9:26 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| He said that when the CPUC votes on Thursday it's likely to be in favor of a huge committment to solar power. In any case, DSTI and SPWR are rallying on this speculation. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Comments on this subject from the Dow Jones Newswire:
| Quote: | | (Dow Jones) ATS Automation (ATA.T) recently up 4.9% to C$17.04 in Toronto courtesy of Jim Cramer, analysts says. On his Mad Money TV show last night, Cramer called ATS his stealth solar-power play," analysts say, noting that ATS announced last week it hired a financial advisor to assess strategic alternatives for its Solar Group, including a public offering. The irascible Cramer also said to have indicated the solar-power industry is poised to benefit from a recently unveiled, massive solar-power-rebate program in California. Cramer's bullish solar-power outlook may also be benefiting Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and Daystar (DSTI). ESLR up 11% to $12.24; DSTI up 10% to $10.58. | |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| I think solar power will be the power play this year vs oil and gas. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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I believe that "consumer" solar is still in the "early adopter" stage. It's hard to pick winners, as there are so many companies that will fizzle. But if you get the right one, you can look for amazing returns over the next ten years as the technology goes mainstream.
There's a chart around somewhere (can't find a decent one to link to at the moment) that shows how long technologies take to go "mainstream". It used to be that it took 10 years for a technology to be developed, during which time it was used by less than 10% of the population. Think of things like electricity, radio, televisions, VCR's, things like that. Then for the next 10 years you capture a cumulative 90% of the market. So you take 10 years to get started, then in 10 years more you get another 80% (10 + 80 = 90% quoted earlier). You may never get 100% penetration. (Someone once told me that WD-40 is found in over 98% of all homes in America... I find that astounding, if true.)
Now that curve has become flatter for more modern technologies. Think how fast audio cd's replaced vinyl records. Think how fast DVD's came on. It wasn't ten years, that's for sure.
So if that's true, then we're on the early curve for solar, at least as far as mass-produced "consumer" technology. If you find the right play, it could be worth a fortune.  |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Dave,
If you do a search on google with solar power you will find quit a few residential solar power providers, its costly right now but the prices will come down as demand/production increases. Batteries are a play on solar power also because they are a vital part of the systems. |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Batteries are only involved with off-grid solar power systems while most of the business will be in grid tied systems. |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 2:35 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Good observation, if you want to have to purchase electricity when there is not enough sun hours to sell back enough to the grid, you won't need batteries. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| frusnak wrote: | | If you do a search on google with solar power you will find quit a few residential solar power providers, its costly right now but the prices will come down as demand/production increases. |
That's exactly my point... the "adoption curve" of new technology is in play here. I'll try to find a good article (with pictures, of course) that explains what I'm talking about.
Initial adopters always pay the price for being on the leading edge. As the technology becomes comoditized (if that's a word) then more and more people get on board until it becomes ubiquitous.
Look at the stock price curve for Dell and Microsoft. Starting from 1980 (very first computers) to 1990 (main stream) to 2000 (commodity). It's clear where you want to be an investor. The trick is to find the next "Dell" and not the next Altair. |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Altair, I was watching that nanotechnology company but did not buy. It did have a + 250% stock price increase though. It is down now@$2.40's started tracking it when it was under a $1.00  |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:02 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| frusnak wrote: | | Altair, I was watching that nanotechnology company but did not buy. |
Wrong Altair.  |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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