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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
 Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:19 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| StatTrader wrote: | That depends on how the technical analysis is performed. When used as part of a mechanical trading system, the human element is completely removed, hence no emotion enters into the decision making process.
As far as I am aware, there is no mechanical way to evaluate the fundmentals of a company. If there is then please enlighten me, I'd like to know. It just seems that as soon as you use numbers that are objectively created, whether they are P/E, stock price, return of capital, etc, and plug them into a formula to get a buy/sell decision then it is, by definition, technical analysis. TA is not just drawing lines on charts, TA involves MACD, RSI, Stochastics, etc, they are the bread and butter of mechanical systems.
I'd love to see a counter-example. |
You have a website devoted to forecasting the market based on "signals" from charts. I think this means you have an agenda and are slightly biased. I'm not saying you are wrong to use technical analysis as the basis of your recommendations, thats fine for certain people. I think you need to take a holistic approach to getting a buy/sell decision, but that, overall, fundamental analysis will be more important in correctly predicting the long-term movement and pricing of the stock. I think the majority of people, however, invest rather than trade. This long-term approach they take makes "buy" and "sell" signals largely irrelevant for them.
Before I offer the counter-example you'd love to see, lets see if we can agree on what fundamental vs. technical analysis is. My views are:
Fundamentals: Income Statement/Balance Sheet, Status of Sector/Industry, Economic Moat, Debt to Equity, ROA, ROE, ROIC, P/E, PEG, and the like.
Technicals: Resistance/Support Points, Stochs and Volume Indicators, Moving Averages, Candlesticks, etc.
Can we work off this basis? |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:23 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:28 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Now that Cramer is getting bullish on the energy sector again it means it is time to short, he just reiterated his bullish call on ESLR but I noticed that he backed away from CPST, a stock he said to buy when it was up near 4.00 and ended up costing those who followed his advice a quick 30%+ loss just after his buy call, my favorite short in the sector is ESLR, short through 12.60 for a move to a new 52 week low, this call based solely on TA, I guess the funnymental players can hold until a new 52 week low is made in these stocks and 70% of their initial investment goes bye bye.  BTW, I see CY on the list of Cramer long calls that somebody here is tracking, please be aware that he originally said to buy when it was up at the 52 week high based on its prospects as a solar energy play, so the positive return being credited to the idiot is a bit skewed, CY also a great short based on the semiconductor aspect, semis are one sector that will get whacked hard during the coming steep market selloff.  |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 2:49 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| CY is interesting, I am following it myself. I might have to talk about it in a separate thread, just like the whole fundamental/technical debate. |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| SPWR is a subsidiary of CY and if you're looking to invest in solar panels / alternative energy, buy SPWR, not CY. SPWR had it's ipo last week and has done quite well going from $24 to $30. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 11:29 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| I know, CY spun off SPWR. I am saying that I am following CY because it still has such a big stake in SPWR's stock, which is moving up, hence increasing the value of CY's holdings. Semiconductors can be a brutal industry though... |
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| goldguy2 |
| Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
Joined: 13 Nov 2005
Posts: 68
This Month: 3
Location: Colorado. Grew up in Lorain, Ohio.
7337.05 e$
Net worth: 22,367.05
Portfolio Value: 15,030.00
Monthly Return: -8.83%
Trades this month: 3
Churn Rate: 9.97%Items
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| After reading the posts in this forum, I'm getting enthusiastic again about solar and other alternative power sources. In the 70s I plunked down a bundle in a little company called American Wind Turbine. It did well for a time, then dribbled away and finally went bankrupt. at least I got a tax loss out of it. I tend to dive into trends and companies too soon. They're turning out a product and getting contracts but can't keep the money flowing to the bottom line. Great company but low on cash. I'm hoping fuel cells become practical one of these days; the potential is good if they can get them small enough and if enough "gas stations" are converted to sell hydrogen. Fuel cells emit only water vapor as waste, so it would feel good to be making money out of a clean energy source. |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| FCEL did well today. At one point it was up to 9.30. I think the time is now right for altnernative energy. I'm not sure how it will play out and I think there are many problems that still need to be worked out especially with fuel cells. But, one way or another alternative energy will emerge victorious in 2006. There will be a lot of money to be made here. |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:46 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| stockmarkettips wrote: | | FCEL did well today. At one point it was up to 9.30. I think the time is now right for altnernative energy. I'm not sure how it will play out and I think there are many problems that still need to be worked out especially with fuel cells. But, one way or another alternative energy will emerge victorious in 2006. There will be a lot of money to be made here. |
 Check this link out. I do not know where you check stocks but this is one that I use a lot. http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=fcel |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| I usually use finance.yahoo.com |
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| nelaina |
| Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2005 6:52 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| A few companies i have been following are DESC, ESLR, and SATC. I am actually liking what i see in SATC so far |
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| goldguy2 |
| Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2005 9:28 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
Joined: 13 Nov 2005
Posts: 68
This Month: 3
Location: Colorado. Grew up in Lorain, Ohio.
7337.05 e$
Net worth: 22,367.05
Portfolio Value: 15,030.00
Monthly Return: -8.83%
Trades this month: 3
Churn Rate: 9.97%Items
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Hi Frusnak,
I checked that link on FCEL and it's good. Mostly I use StockCharts.com and StockTA.com but I skip around and Yahoo is pretty suitable too.
FCEL seems to be trying to form a Bowl pattern or better yet a Cup since September. If it's a Cup and generates a pullback to turn it into a Cup-with-handle, that would be a really deep Cup and would poise this stock for a solid run up equal to at least the depth of the Cup. Of course any number of factors could shatter this teenage Cup, but it's worth watching. |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 8:23 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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SPWR mentioned in this article today:
Conergy Finalized Solar Agreements Totaling more than 70 MW
"In the last two weeks, Hamburg, Germany-based Conergy AG reported that it has finalized nine additional supply agreements for photovoltaic modules, delivering a total volume of 70.5 MW. The suppliers include <b>SunPower</b>, GE and the Scanmodule/REC Group. Together with existing agreements and ongoing long-term supply partnerships, for example with Sharp and First-Solar, Conergy says it has laid the foundations to grow more rapidly in 2006 than the global solar market, which industry associations estimate to be growing by 25 percent." |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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As you all know I am a big fan of fuel cell technology and other alternative power sources to help break the strangle hold that big oil has on this country.
How ever except for coal to gas and solar these alternates are considered to be in the developemental stage. It will take another big crunch to get the market focusing on all of the choices we have versus oil. |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 7:40 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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