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| bradleyt |
 Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:12 am Post subject: ISRG |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| anyone take a look at this one latley? went from 139 to 88. end of year estimates at still around 120 from yahoo. |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 7:20 am Post subject: |
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Well, according to my calcs they are still significantly overbought and they have higher than avg P/E and PEG (which is a negative). It is a very speculative industry and may pull it off but, I would be glued in fear to it's performance with real cash and wouldn't risk it with no real baseline to prop it up against.  |
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| bradleyt |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| thanks, how can u tell when its overbought? are their indicators or just by looking at p/e and others related |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Cramer recommended this stock back around 11/14/05 it went up initially (wonder why   ) but has been on a steady decline since then.
Cosmetic surgery cost money and I believe the people with real money have already spent on these procedures. |
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| bradleyt |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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isrg does more than jsut cosmetic surgerys though. they performed a hysterectomy on the 28th with the davinci system and i guess the lady they did the surgery on returned home the same day.
"It provides surgeons with a magnified view of the surgical area, and hand-motion mimicry allowing very tiny movements of instruments by scaling down normal movements."
thats what one of the reports said, so im assuming it can be used for all sorts of surgerys. |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Buuuuuuuuurrrrrrreeeeeeettee....robosurgeon.......whhhaaattssssuup |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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I think we were talking about ISRG in another thread and I said gave it a target price of $85-90 based on earnings analysis, but then added that I thought it deserved a higher price based on its explosive growth.
Now that its down to $88, I guess the model was correct but I was wrong.
I've been reading Aswath Damodaran's Dark Side of Valuation and he believes that any and all companies can be judged by a cash flow valuation, regardless of growth stage. I guess ISRG is one example to back that hypothesis up... |
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| bradleyt |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:22 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| is the valuation based just on cash flow? how would u figure that though? thats one thing i dont understand, and i have asked in other threads but i never seem to get an anserw |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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Member of The Month
March
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| bradleyt wrote: | | is the valuation based just on cash flow? how would u figure that though? thats one thing i dont understand, and i have asked in other threads but i never seem to get an anserw |
That is probably because it's very tedious and confusing to most people but,
Here is an excerpt from Investopedia followed by a link to the complete article:
........"A key valuation tool at analysts' disposal is discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Analysts use DCF to determine a company's current value according to its estimated future cash flows. Forecasted free cash flows (operating profit + depreciation + amortization of goodwill - capital expenditures - cash taxes - change in working capital) are discounted to a present value using the company's weighted average costs of capital. For investors keen on gaining insights on what drives share value, few tools can rival DCF analysis"............
See what I mean?
Here is the link to the article it also has embedded links in it to explain points given, and would be a great place to start, I think.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/011403.asp
I also think this could be an exemplary model for how articles could be posted and referenced, What do you think INWB. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:29 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| jdunn72 wrote: | | I also think this could be an exemplary model for how articles could be posted and referenced, What do you think INWB. |
Excellent. 
Or as the French would say, "tres parfait", not that anyone actually cares about what they think... 
I'll hit on the cash flow question in another post. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:39 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| bradleyt wrote: | | is the valuation based just on cash flow? how would u figure that though? thats one thing i dont understand, and i have asked in other threads but i never seem to get an anserw |
Jdunn conveyed the right idea, but I'm going to try to put it in more easily understandable terms.
DCF models use future cash flows to determine what the stock is worth. By saying it is based "just off cash flow" is somewhat inaccurate. It uses future cash flows which are discounted at a specified rate because money is worth less over time... it is all very logical if you stop and think about it. Basically, you take the present state of the company and forecast it into the future toward infinity, and you will arrive at an estimate for the worth of the stock.
I don't know how people invest without using a valuation tool such as a DCF, without one its almost like buying blind. Maybe you aren't a conservative enough investor to base your decisions solely off it, but I think you should definitely use a high-quality model before you put any real money in the market. |
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| bradleyt |
| Posted: Thu Mar 09, 2006 1:17 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| thanks, i think i understand a bit more now about it, looks like i have some reading to do...... |
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