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| heos |
 Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:27 am Post subject: When Will Oil Prices Go Down? |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| When Will Oil Prices Go Down? |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:03 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Probably never. Get used to it, and start investing in stocks that will rise as a result of it. |
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| vtang |
| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
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| maybe when ppl stop using it and use something else like ethenol |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Ethanol will never be the answer. We simply do not have enough farm land to produce enough ethanol at a reasonable price. |
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| NCSUPAGE |
| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:04 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Ethanol alone will never be the answer, but it is a significant part of the solution. Do you know how many tons of subsidized crops go to waste each year because the government buys it up to keep market prices up for the farmers and stores it away? If we could convert all those stores into ethanol it would be an amazing amount of fuel which would aid in solving the impending fuel crisis. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:18 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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NCSU, corn-based ethanol is a fraud perpetrated on (and paid for by) every American because politicians are looking for votes from big ag. If the pols were serious about ethanol, they would be doing everything they could to switch to sugar. But, sugar doesn't grow in Iowa... the dilemma. Or not.
Everyone loves to complain about big oil; I love big oil. They do one hell of a job doing what they do and delivering, literally, the gasoline that powers the engine of every economy... |
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| deprived |
| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 10:07 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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| the prices will go down when the consumers boycott the gas prices by stop driving there cars for 3-7 days, in the largest gas concusming area's, this idea is off course does not apply to emergency vechicles. ex. 1,500,000 drivers not buying gas for 7 days. average tank x 2 x 1,500,000 x gas price = big$$$$ losses and it show that we are not that depenable on oil. i think they will get the message. |
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| stockmarkettips |
| Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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That is a pleasant thought, but gas hungry Americans in their big bad SUVs and there I don't care about nobody but me attitudes will never be smart enough to pull together and do that.
| deprived wrote: | | the prices will go down when the consumers boycott the gas prices by stop driving there cars for 3-7 days, in the largest gas concusming area's, this idea is off course does not apply to emergency vechicles. ex. 1,500,000 drivers not buying gas for 7 days. average tank x 2 x 1,500,000 x gas price = big$$$$ losses and it show that we are not that depenable on oil. i think they will get the message. | |
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| blackfoxtrade |
| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 2:34 am Post subject: |
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Associate
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| You are forgetting that oil is used to produce plastics, medical equipment, fertilizers etc. And America is not the only country consuming oil products so even if all the Americans boycotted gas it wouldn't change things in the long run. |
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| StatTrader |
| Posted: Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:06 am Post subject: |
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If you look at graphs of global oil consumption growth vs. global GDP growth going back 30 yrs or more, it becomes very clear that the two are directly linked with average GDP growth being about double the average increase in oil consumption.
This all makes perfectly good sense from a Physics standpoint. The larger a system is the greater the minimum amount of energy required to maintain the system. System, whether mechanical, biological, or economic, require greater amounts of energy to grow and must shrink if energy consumption shrinks.
Oil represents the lion's share of energy to today's global economy and virtually all parties agree that the capability of increasing global oil production will be constrained over the next 5 years at least.
There are both above ground and below ground reasons for this. Above ground reasons include a lack of manpower (the average age of an oil industry worker is 51) and a lack of infra-stucture (the average age of oil rigs now exceeds their designed life span). Below ground reasons rest primarily on the fact that the easy to get at oil is now gone. The oil that remains is harder to get to, harder to extract, and more difficult to refine (heavier more sour crude).
This will put upward pressure on oil prices because pricing is the only mechanism in a free market for suppressing demand down available supply. We will be going into a period where oil price increases result in economic contraction leading to decreased demand leading to lowering prices leading to increased demand leading to higher prices. Overall, the price of oil going forward will be undulating but with a distinct upward bias as each low is higher than the preceding low and each high is higher than the preceding high.
Historically, oil consumption has increased at 1.8% per year. At best this situation may be relieved starting around the 2013-2015 time frame as equipment and personnel enter the scene and remove the pressure on the above ground issues. At worst, the below ground issues are such that the Peak Oil theorists are proved right and global oil production decreases at the rate of 4-10% per annum starting around 2010. If this worst case scenario unfolds then the global economic engine will go into a decades long depression that makes the 1930's look like a picnic in the park.
The greatest pain and hardship will be felt in the third world countries as they will lose the bidding war for the available oil supplies. Western Europe, the US, and China have the resources to to garner what they need to keep their economies going, producing electricity, transporting goods, etc. This is already occurring in parts of Africa and Asia with rolling blackouts and long lines at gas stations becoming a part of everyday life.
This posting reminds me of one of my favorite demotivating posters.
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| deprived |
| Posted: Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:50 am Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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I did not forget about all hydocarbon based products, but gasoline is what is affecting the whole world directly. Earlier this year the finacial industry and those of the like said that the cost of gas going up will not cause inflation.
Like the 70's, unfortunatly for those who believed that, already i have seen all the prices in the serivce industry go up, heck my lunch cost me anywhere from 12-20 bucks and that is just for me alone, i can go back to eating Mcdonald's. OHHH!!! Even Mcdonald's prices have increased on an average of 15%.
Yes, we really would need to boycott all of the hydrocarbon based products (which is about 93% (give or take 5%) of the products on the market today); or we can use one of the latest invention of the year to remove the gas, oil and reduce's the waste volume by 65 % in land fills.
There we can recycle the oil and gas produce by this method and cut down the need for new oil to be pumped and used. The first machine will be operational this next february in LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK.
Check out the latest popular science Magazine (december 07 issue for more info on the machine mention above or go to globalresourcecorp.com
Reference the HAWK |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:34 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| I forget if I mentioned this from somewhere I read, if this was a Twilight in the Desert thing, or what, but regardless, it's stuck in my mind - of any industrialized country, only South Korea's economy has no functional correlation between GDP growth and oil consumption. For everyone else, increasing the former mandates increasing the latter. |
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| blackfoxtrade |
| Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 6:13 am Post subject: |
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Associate
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If anyone is really into this peak oil topic, then I suggest you read James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency. I bought it from America so it should be available from your local store (or Amazon, for that matter).
The other problem with peak oil is that when the price of oil rises, coal consumption will rise, which will lead to more pollution and more warming. You may deny the latter, but you would still have pollution. Already, coal consumption is on the rise. Hell, some countries are even converting it to car fuel. |
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| NCSUPAGE |
| Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 7:08 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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There have been a few attempts to establish sweet potato-based ethanol plants in NC since it is one of the country's largest producers of sweet potatoes, but every time it has been blocked by the subsidies INWB discussed earlier for the corn markets. If we could get a more balanced produce market, the ethanol industry would blossom in the U.S. Corn has one of the lowest production amounts per acre for ethanol and thus shouldn't be used except as a last resort. Peanuts and sweet potatoes, it turns out, have some of the highest gallons/acre production rates, and if someone could get the money invested to begin some ethanol plants based off of these products, there would be a lot of money to be made, especially in the South where this produce is primarily grown.
NC State University's researchers have also developed a way to produce fuel from the animal fat byproduct of meat processing - using the right additives they can produce anything from E85 to jet fuel. |
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| blackfoxtrade |
| Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 9:10 am Post subject: |
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This month's National Geographic gives a summarized overview of the current biofuel production methods around the globe. The US mostly uses corn ethanol which is one of the least effective ways of making fuel out of plants. The Brazilians are doing really good, but at the expense of rain forests... NG should be under $10, so it's quite cheap for that amount of information. You can always take a sneak preview in the shop.  |
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