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| stolen |
 Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 10:23 am Post subject: a place for value investor on not? |
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I realise that this is probaly not a place for value investors, monthly return is not very sexy. Its a game and you have to be agressive to be successful in games....or? From the other hand its a real market...I really dont get the point  |
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| akh098 |
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: |
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Investing VP
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It depends. If you have choosen good value stocks, it might not show positive returns immediately. But later on your portfolio returns would be positive and by big margin. Google is currently trading @ $345 and it looks good. but it will take time before it reaches again to $ 450.
daily trading is interesting. i do it. I have learned alot by doing trading in new stocks. Returns are negative  but knowledge base have increased.
A mix of value stocks and daily trading is best bet |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 11:59 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| There are value investors here. They may not be able to win the monthly game, but there's still "value" (pun intended) in hanging out with us. |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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Member of The Month
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If a real value investor asked me about a good solid stock for their retirement portfolio I would scream CHKE CHKE CHKE (Cherokee) look at their chart for over a decade they have done nothing but make steady gains and their dividends are nearly unmatched in the industry and they are still affordable. Their books are solid. If anyone can find a more solid security investment please let me know. Must have at least ten years of data, pos returns on equity and assets and quarterlies with plenty of free cash flow and working capital and a ten year chart with one steady trendline uppppp.  |
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| DKnightSr |
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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Member of the Month
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| jdunn72 wrote: | | If a real value investor asked me about a good solid stock for their retirement portfolio I would scream CHKE CHKE CHKE (Cherokee) look at their chart for over a decade they have done nothing but make steady gains and their dividends are nearly unmatched in the industry and they are still affordable. Their books are solid. If anyone can find a more solid security investment please let me know. Must have at least ten years of data, pos returns on equity and assets and quarterlies with plenty of free cash flow and working capital and a ten year chart with one steady trendline uppppp. |
Well... somebody best tell the "insiders"
Recent Insider Trading Activity: Cherokee Inc.
Date Name Transaction Num Shares Price(s) Value
01/06/06 MARGOLIS ROBERT Sold 80,000 $34.55 2.76 Mil
01/04/06 SIEGEL HOWARD BRUCE Sold 19,000 $34.36 652,745.00
06/20/05 SIEGEL HOWARD BRUCE Sold 2,000 $34.51 69,010.00
06/15/05 MARGOLIS ROBERT Sold 53,541 $34.17 1.83 Mil
06/15/05 SIEGEL HOWARD BRUCE Sold 12,000 $34.45 413,400.00
06/10/05 MARGOLIS ROBERT Sold 30,000 $33.79 1.01 Mil
04/29/05 SASS LAWRENCE MARC Sold 5,200 $34.58 179,842.00
04/12/05 SIEGEL HOWARD BRUCE Sold 18,600 $35.79 665,694.00 |
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| DKnightSr |
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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Member of the Month
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| jdunn72 wrote: | | If a real value investor asked me about a good solid stock for their retirement portfolio I would scream CHKE CHKE CHKE (Cherokee) look at their chart for over a decade they have done nothing but make steady gains and their dividends are nearly unmatched in the industry and they are still affordable. Their books are solid. If anyone can find a more solid security investment please let me know. Must have at least ten years of data, pos returns on equity and assets and quarterlies with plenty of free cash flow and working capital and a ten year chart with one steady trendline uppppp. |
And on top of that:
Qtr. over Qtr. EPS Growth Rate
FY (01/06) FY (01/05) FY (01/04)
1st Qtr 50% 88% ---
2nd Qtr -25% -22% -32%
3rd Qtr -29% -24% -33%
4th Qtr NA 21% 17%
I think I'll stick with Hershey But thanks for the input! |
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| DKnightSr |
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: a place for value investor on not? |
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Member of the Month
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| stolen wrote: | | I realise that this is probaly not a place for value investors, monthly return is not very sexy. Its a game and you have to be agressive to be successful in games....or? From the other hand its a real market...I really dont get the point |
Stolen: The trick is, use this site to do all the wild and crazy things you might not want to do in real life. Try new avenues of investment (there's more markets than just the US) or new sectors (there's more than oil and gas). And hey, if you're lucky... you'll fall over something you can really use. I owe a few bucks to this site for helping me with SPIL (I'm out now but got a nice pop) and now I'm playing with CHINA. Wouldn't dare "experiment" with real $$$, but once SPIL started to go, it was obvious there was room for a profit. Wouldn't do it now, but it was good then.
Hey, it's not winning the game, it's not getting rich, it's how much can you learn. Education is not cheap... but this is the closest I've found. Hope you stick around... and hey... just keep trying. Like everything else in this world, it takes practice to be good. (Just ask Hemingway ) |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: a place for value investor on not? |
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CFO
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| stolen wrote: | | I realise that this is probaly not a place for value investors, monthly return is not very sexy. Its a game and you have to be agressive to be successful in games....or? From the other hand its a real market...I really dont get the point |
I know what you are talking about. I take a value approach to investing, and the things I pick don't usually pay off immediately, and when they do its not 20%+ in one month, which is usually the minimum you need to win. Stick around though, you'll probably learn alot and really expand your knowledge.
Good luck, and have fun! |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:52 am Post subject: HSY Doesn't Come Close to CHKE in performance. |
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Member of The Month
March
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| DKnightSr wrote: | | jdunn72 wrote: | | If a real value investor asked me about a good solid stock for their retirement portfolio I would scream CHKE CHKE CHKE (Cherokee) look at their chart for over a decade they have done nothing but make steady gains and their dividends are nearly unmatched in the industry and they are still affordable. Their books are solid. If anyone can find a more solid security investment please let me know. Must have at least ten years of data, pos returns on equity and assets and quarterlies with plenty of free cash flow and working capital and a ten year chart with one steady trendline uppppp. |
And on top of that:
Qtr. over Qtr. EPS Growth Rate
FY (01/06) FY (01/05) FY (01/04)
1st Qtr 50% 88% ---
2nd Qtr -25% -22% -32%
3rd Qtr -29% -24% -33%
4th Qtr NA 21% 17%
I think I'll stick with Hershey But thanks for the input! |
Ok, just to wake you up a little....
I went to sharebuilder.com and did a little what if performance scenario a comparison between Hershey and Cherokee.
This is a ten year comparison (thats as far back as it goes).
If I had bought $50 worth of stock in CHKE and you did the same with HSY on jan 31 '96, and we each posted ten dollars a month to our holdings of each (and each on a dividend reinvestment program); Here is what the total outcome would be as of feb 17 2006.
You would have invested $1310 in HSY your market worth today would be $2,778 a gain of $1468.20 at a 112% gain.
That seems good hunh? It really is, but as I was saying before cherokee CHKY is better than anything else I can find as far as consistant gains and dividend payments.
Here is how I would have fared in CHKE same scenario....
I would have invested $1310 in CHKE my market worth today would be $9120.50 a gain of $7810.50 a 596% gain.
CHKE has performed 228.29% more powerfully than HSY over the last ten years.
I am sure the consistant and high rate of dividends help more than a lot of people really realize.
Since Cherokee mostly makes money with their diversified brand name they shouldn't be hurt too much in the future as the public wakes up and realizes the poisonous effect of refined sugar on their bodies. Their products are diversified through the retail industry and change with the times. Their management principles is what makes them so powerful.
Lastly, I don't want to come off rude or even as pumping CHKE, I don't own any of it yet. But as I begin to trade for real. I am sure my profits will go there, it's just more earning power for the buck.
Last edited by jdunn72 on Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:00 am; edited 1 time in total |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:58 am Post subject: Is there really a better long term performer than CHKE?? |
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Member of The Month
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| Anyone else, find something they think is better than CHKE, please let me know, because I really would like to find another one to add to my future retirement fund. (Only solid companies with more than ten years of good performance need to be posted for a comparison, thanks). |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:17 am Post subject: |
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| Really hsy is not a bad deal as a comparison and at least one other internet stock has outperformed chke but, I am really not interested in them, they are just too volatile (internet stocks no-way!!!). |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| jdunn72 wrote: | | If a real value investor asked me about a good solid stock for their retirement portfolio I would scream CHKE CHKE CHKE (Cherokee) look at their chart for over a decade they have done nothing but make steady gains and their dividends are nearly unmatched in the industry and they are still affordable. Their books are solid. If anyone can find a more solid security investment please let me know. Must have at least ten years of data, pos returns on equity and assets and quarterlies with plenty of free cash flow and working capital and a ten year chart with one steady trendline uppppp. |
And a real value investor would run a Discounted Cash Flow Model and tell you that, from a conservative standpoint, the shares aren't really a bargain. They are maybe 5-10% undervalued as of right now with CHKE being just under $40.
Thats not to say Cherokee isn't a fine company, and I think they have alot of good things going for them. That said, I see this as more of an income pick than a value stock. |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Oh, ok I thought a value investor was someone looking for long term steady gains, but I see what you are saying now, you mean a stock that is currently undervalued for a good buy in. In that case I would vote Smith & Wesson SWB they have gained quite a bit of new business from the government (pistols to afghanistan mostly) And recently, have extended their product line to tactical rifles for military and police. I started tracking them a couple of weeks ago because I felt they were undervalued, they have moved from the 4.50 mark to $5 in that period with new news posted friday for more gov't contracts and their financials look pretty solid. What do you think about them? |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| jdunn72 wrote: | | Oh, ok I thought a value investor was someone looking for long term steady gains, but I see what you are saying now, you mean a stock that is currently undervalued for a good buy in. In that case I would vote Smith & Wesson SWB they have gained quite a bit of new business from the government (pistols to afghanistan mostly) And recently, have extended their product line to tactical rifles for military and police. I started tracking them a couple of weeks ago because I felt they were undervalued, they have moved from the 4.50 mark to $5 in that period with new news posted friday for more gov't contracts and their financials look pretty solid. What do you think about them? |
Well value investors (and most people in general) are looking for consistent long term gains, but "value investing" is a particular way of seeking those returns. At least thats what I take it to be.
Smith and Wesson does look interesting from a valuation perspective, which I find to be intriguing given the current P/E of 37. I don't think that 25% annual growth analysts are expecting to be reasonable though, and when you reduce that number slightly the undervaluation declines greatly. It does have a decent balance sheet, but I just don't like the idea of investing in a firearms company... too much potential liability for me. And thats coming from a guy who loves Research in Motion (RIMM)...  |
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| jdunn72 |
| Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 4:35 pm Post subject: |
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Member of The Month
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I'm not Warren Buffett wrote:
"And a real value investor would run a Discounted Cash Flow Model and tell you that, from a conservative standpoint, the shares aren't really a bargain. They are maybe 5-10% undervalued as of right now with CHKE being just under $40.
Thats not to say Cherokee isn't a fine company, and I think they have alot of good things going for them. That said, I see this as more of an income pick than a value stock."
Let me ask you, how do you pull these three key elements from the stock info for a discounted cash flow calculation?
1. Cash Flow (Is this the operating cash flow?)?
2. Discount Rate% ?
3. Cash Flow Growth% ? |
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