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| Lets research a stock - VCLK |
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| Do you think you would purchase this stock? |
| It's a Bull - BUY! |
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11% |
[ 1 ] |
| It's a Bear - DON'T BUY! |
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88% |
[ 8 ] |
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| Total Votes : 9 |
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Message
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| nelaina |
 Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 6:03 am Post subject: Lets research a stock - VCLK |
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CFO
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Ok so i guess ill get it started
on monday's I will announce the stock of the day, which will be up until thursday for everyone to research and discuss and try to offer all aspects of analysis. On Thursday, geb will announce his stock of the day, which will be up until the following monday.
this isn't a contest just an informational kinda thing, and all info is welcome.
my pick for monday ValueClick, Inc. (VCLK) |
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| Benjamin |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 6:11 am Post subject: |
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Administrator
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Never heard of them, but when I visted their site I saw they own CommissionJunction which according to a lot of webmaster sites is one of the best sites for getting affiliates.
Basically you advertise for different companies and if any clicks turn into sales you get a commission.
I've never heard of the other companies they own though.
http://www.valueclick.com/Welcome.shtml
Anyone got financials on this one? |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:13 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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VCLK@$20.48
52 wk
high$20.68
low$9.01
earnings...$1.06 per share
Inst. ownership..89.9%
105 buyers vs 74 sellers
100 million shares outstanding
share float..89.79%
Average daily vol...1.8 million shares
profit margin 36.8%
return on equity..13.7% |
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| moreno917 |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:07 am Post subject: ValueClick, Inc. |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 09 Jan 2006
Posts: 24
This Month: 0
5206.07 e$
Net worth: 7,597.07
Portfolio Value: 2,391.00
Monthly Return: -5.61%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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just a little more info about the stock based information using the msn money research wizard.
Revenue - Quarterly Results (in Millions)
FY (12/05) FY (12/04) FY (12/03)
1st Qtr 51.4 36.7 19.5
2nd Qtr 54.6 34.6 20.1
3rd Qtr 81.4 43.5 22.7
4th Qtr NA 54.4 30.3
Total 187.4 169.2 92.6
Zacks average brokerage recommendation is Moderate Buy.
Analyst Ratings
Mean Recommendations
Current 1.56
1 Month Ago 1.82
2 Months Ago 1.67
3 Months Ago 1.63
Mean Recommendation Conversion Table
1.0 = Strong Buy
1.1 thru 2.0 = Moderate Buy
2.1 thru 3.0 = Hold
3.1 thru 4.0 = Moderate Sell
4.1 thru 5.0 = Strong Sell
Oh, and the company is apparently being followed by:
Citigroup, Mark Mahaney
Craig-Hallum, Eric Martinuzzi
CS First Boston, Heath Terry
First Albany Capital, Jason Avilio
Hoefer & Arnett, Martin Pyykkonen
J.P. Morgan, Imran Khan
Jefferies & Co., Youssef Squali
JMP Securities, William Morrison
Pacific Crest, Chad Bartley
Pacific Growth Equities, Derek Brown
Piper Jaffray & Co., Aaron M. Kessler
S&P Equity Research, Scott H. Kessler
Stephens, Inc., Kyle Evans
ThinkEquity Partners, Stewart Barry |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:13 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Some information from the research source provided by my broker:
Highlights November 18, 2005
We estimate that revenues will increase 78% in 2005 and 61% in 2006, reflecting acquisitions, as well as our expectations for a healthy economy, a gain for Internet advertising's share of marketing budgets, and favorable online media pricing trends. Our projections account for the June 2005 acquisitions of Web Marketing Holdings (a marketing services company), and E-Babylon (an online retailer of ink and toner products), and the September 2005 purchase of Fastclick (a provider of online advertising solutions).
We project that annual gross and operating margins will widen in 2005, despite the negative impact we expect associated with recent acquisitions. However, we believe newly acquired businesses will contribute to a projected narrowing of these margins in 2006.
In June 2005, VCLK acquired Web Marketing Holdings and E-Babylon in transactions valued at $155.7 million in cash and stock. In September 2005, VCLK purchased Fastclick for some $287.6 million in stock. Although we expect the effective tax rate to rise from 20% in 2004, to 39% in 2005, and 40% in 2006, we look for operating EPS to grow about 30% annually in both 2005 and 2006.
Investment Rationale/Risk November 18, 2005
We think VCLK has done a good job of consolidating online advertising companies, to become a multi-faceted provider of various Internet marketing products and services. We expect the company to continue acquiring other businesses when opportunities present themselves. Although we are optimistic about Internet advertising in general, we have concerns about Google's (GOOG: $385; hold) and Yahoo's (YHOO: $38; buy) growing interest in providing display advertising services to third-party Web sites. We also believe VCLK's Technology segment offerings face possible commoditization (particularly in the ad-serving area). Our recommendation is hold.
Risks to our recommendation and target price include increasing competition, and execution issues related to a number of recent significant acquisitions.
The shares recently traded at a discount to certain components of the S&P 1500 Internet Software & Services Sub-Industry, based on P/E multiples and P/E to growth ratios. The shares also recently traded slightly below our calculation of intrinsic value, based on discounted cash flow analysis, using assumptions including a weighted average cost of capital of 17.3% and average annual growth of 42% from 2005 through 2009. Our 12-month target price is $20, blending valuations from both relative and intrinsic analyses.
Dave Note: they hit this target price today. The research is dated last November.
Business Summary November 18, 2005
ValueClick offers products and services that enable marketers to advertise and sell their offerings via Internet marketing channels including display advertising, keyword search, e-mail, and affiliate programs. It also provides software that assists advertising agencies with information management for financial, workflow, and off-line media buying and planning purposes. The company believes that its solutions enable customers to address the marketing process from planning through execution, including results management and campaign adjustment. VCLK derives revenues from three business segments: Media, Affiliate Marketing, and Technology.
The Media segment (55% of 2004 revenues, and 49% of 2003 revenues, accounting for intercompany eliminations) provides services and programs that help marketers create awareness, attract visitors, and generate leads and sales through the Internet. VCLK's online advertising network consists of more than 4,500 U.S. properties and 14,000 around the world, and 17 standard channels. E-mail services allow marketers to target qualified prospective customers with opt-in e-mail lists from partners that meet criteria for data integrity and e-mail legislation compliance. Lead generation services enable marketers to develop proprietary permission-based lists of leads for re-marketing. Online comparison shopping offerings allow consumers to research and compare products from among thousands of merchants through VCLK's Pricerunner Web sites; when would-be consumers click through to merchant Web sites, generally the company is paid. Search marketing allows marketers to find potential customers that are engaged in researching products and services online.
Affiliate marketing (35%, 26%) consists of online properties displaying advertising in various locations and configurations in exchange for compensation for leads developed, or based on revenue-sharing related to purchased products or services. VCLK provides systems that it believes enable Internet marketers to employ affiliate marketing to attract, convert and retain customers.
The Technology segment (13%, 25%) provides marketers, agencies, Web site publishers, and other concerns with tools to manage business operations and marketing programs. Mediaplex offerings include advertising-servicing, advertising management and e-mail campaign management software. AdWare solutions focus on business management (to track, produce and bill jobs), media management (to plan, execute, track, analyze and bill media buys), and content management (to store, index, retrieve, and play/view digital assets).
VCLK has grown in recent years, in part, via acquisitions. In August 2004, VCLK acquired Pricerunner AB, a provider of online comparison shopping services, for up to $36.1 million in cash and stock. In December 2003, it purchased Hi-Speed Media and its e-mail database of 40 million opt-in e-mail profiles, for up to $16.8 million. Also in December, it acquired Commission Junction, which provides solutions to enable advertisers to manage, track and analyze online marketing programs, for $55.6 million in cash and stock. In May 2003, the company bought search marketer Search123.com, for $4.9 million. In May 2002, VCLK acquired Be Free for its online and off-line marketing and advertising technology, for $122.3 million in stock, and options to buy 4.2 million shares. Advertising software provider Mediaplex was purchased by in October 2001, for $42.7 in stock, and stock options to purchase 2.8 million shares. VCLK acquired co-registration company Z Media in January 2001, for $17.2 million in stock and options (if converted). |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:17 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Insiders are net "sellers" of the stock over the past year. Adding buys and sells results in a net of 1,427,000 shares sold since March 2005. Total sales = 1,452,000 and buys = 25,000 shares.  |
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| Benjamin |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:26 am Post subject: |
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Administrator
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I've modified the title of the thread and added a poll. I think this will a very good learning tool for people as far as researching a stock.
Great idea guys, we should do one or two of these a week.
So what should people really be looking at in this research? |
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| moreno917 |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:46 am Post subject: Short/Long Term Outlook? |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 09 Jan 2006
Posts: 24
This Month: 0
5206.07 e$
Net worth: 7,597.07
Portfolio Value: 2,391.00
Monthly Return: -5.61%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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I am a novice at stock research and investing and I am here to hopefully learn something before actually investing real dollars.
The information provided thus far looks pretty good and the outlook of the stock looks positive as far as I can tell.
Should I be looking at the stock as a long or short term investment? |
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| moreno917 |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 10:56 am Post subject: ValueClick, Inc.: Stock Rating |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 09 Jan 2006
Posts: 24
This Month: 0
5206.07 e$
Net worth: 7,597.07
Portfolio Value: 2,391.00
Monthly Return: -5.61%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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How much importance should we place on Stock Rating tools such as MSN's StockScouter.
It gives ValueClick a rating of 7 (10 is the best possible).
"ValueClick, Inc., a mid-cap growth company in the technology sector, is expected to outperform the market over the next six months with average risk."
Quick Summary
Pro:
The ratio of VCLK's price-to-earnings multiple to its five-year growth rate is slightly below the average of all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Positive
The price-to-sales multiple is significantly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Very positive for a medium- to large-sized company like VCLK.
Con:
One or more analysts has modestly decreased quarterly earnings estimates for VCLK. Negative
The price-to-earnings multiple is close to the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Neutral
Short-term OutlookOver the next 1-2 months, StockScouter forecasts that growth stocks will be neutral, mid-cap stocks will be neutral, and technology stocks will be neutral. |
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| Iceemaan |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 11:18 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Me being the narrow minded noob that I am. I think the stock is overvalued and should be stayed away from. Due to the return per share and the current trade value. Plus it is very near its 52 week high and not likely to break through without substantial info or growth.
I am probably wrong but that is how I see it. I voted Bear. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 11:22 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| I voted bear also. They're in a competitive market. Insiders have been net sellers of the stock. You think Mister Director would have sold hundreds of thousands of shares of stock if he thought it was going up to $30? to $50? |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 11:24 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Wow, this looks like a really good idea as a learning/investing tool for all of Us!
Going by something in Dave's reply about competition from google and yahoo. I personally would be very cautious about investing in this company. Maybe a short term buy but I think it's too risky for the long haul.
I' bearish on this one. Excellent response from everyone so far though!  |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 11:25 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| We ought to keep track of the vote results, the share price, and come back in 3 months and see how the votes did versus the share price. Someone want to volunteer to track that? |
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| geb9696 |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 11:33 am Post subject: |
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Investing VP
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I will do that.
Stock price as of today is 20.45. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 12:00 pm Post subject: Valueclick - VCLK |
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CFO
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It doesn't have alot of debt?
Thats what I find to be good about it. My fairly aggressive DCF says it shouldn't have crossed $18.50 last year, and a more realistic projection is about $17.40, so I don't think its that good of a deal. Unless they have an incredible 4th quarter to close the year like they did last time, it could be worth about $14.75, meaning it is more than 25% overpriced. And when I say it needs to be incredible, they need to take in more than they made in the rest of the year.
My two cents: I would stay away from it. |
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