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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
 Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 8:51 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Emkie got it! WTI is the final answer to this contest.
5000 more e$ to her!
For a review, the correct answers were CBI, WTI and TSM. |
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| emkie |
| Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Sr. Associate
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Thanks!
Also, thank you for holding this game! It was cool and I was introduced to some more stocks to keep an eye on! |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Ok, I've been inspired to update my portfolio page today.
I am still holding a large amount of Apple (AAPL).
Alliance Resource (ARLP) has been performing well for both my portfolio and the charity portfolio.
Baidu (BIDU) had a big bull run today after beating earnings expectations by 25%, I've sold most of it but am still holding a couple shares up 57%. 
Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI), another major holding, is now in the black nicely.
Florida Rock and Gravel (FRK) is up 20% for me.
IBM and MSFT - What can I say?
Internet Japan (IIJI) was in the house of pain today, I may pick up more.
I'm still holding a couple shares of Research in Motion (RIMM).
Taiwan Semi (TSM) is another major holding and has performed well.
UnitedHealth (UNH) has gotten crushed lately, and I'm thinking about buying more. There is a story behind that ill-timed purchase, but I'm going to rerun it in my DCF and see if I can pick the right number this time. 
Valero (VLO) is up 30% for me, I almost sold it up 20% but am going to stick with it for now.
W&T Offshore (WTI) is another energy company which I hold, it is now up 25%. |
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| vetelmo |
| Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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Moderator
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| Sweet! Good Job! I bet your definitely liking BIDU's change today, lol. |
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| cannonrider2434 |
| Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 09 May 2006
Posts: 10
This Month: 0
414.50 e$
Net worth: 3,970.80
Portfolio Value: 3,556.30
Monthly Return: -6.32%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| haha no wonder why you have more money than i count. great job man! you really know what your doing. im very impressed. how do u know what stocks to pick up? |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 6:15 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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In another thread you asked how I find my stocks, and mostly its just reading news items and clicking around. Although I use a screener to help narrow down my buying possibilities, only three of my current holdings were first discovered by using screens. I read alot of business-related articles, so I've quickly built up a list of several dozen companies which I check in on from time to time, most of which have handily outperformed over the last year.
As for how I determine how to buy/sell, I use a valuation model. Looking back on how I made decisions before using that, I don't see how you can invest without one unless you are one of those "technical analysis" traders. I am very conservative and picky when it comes to choosing companies, and I'm not afraid to pick up additional amounts of stock if my holding drops in price and the valuation model keeps saying to buy. |
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| cannonrider2434 |
| Posted: Thu May 11, 2006 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Associate
Joined: 09 May 2006
Posts: 10
This Month: 0
414.50 e$
Net worth: 3,970.80
Portfolio Value: 3,556.30
Monthly Return: -6.32%
Trades this month: 0
Churn Rate: 0.00%Items
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | In another thread you asked how I find my stocks, and mostly its just reading news items and clicking around. Although I use a screener to help narrow down my buying possibilities, only three of my current holdings were first discovered by using screens. I read alot of business-related articles, so I've quickly built up a list of several dozen companies which I check in on from time to time, most of which have handily outperformed over the last year.
As for how I determine how to buy/sell, I use a valuation model. Looking back on how I made decisions before using that, I don't see how you can invest without one unless you are one of those "technical analysis" traders. I am very conservative and picky when it comes to choosing companies, and I'm not afraid to pick up additional amounts of stock if my holding drops in price and the valuation model keeps saying to buy. |
I know this is such a stupid question, but im just learning so I'll ask it anyway. What is a valuation model? It seems to be helping you out a great deal. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu May 11, 2006 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Valuation models are tools to help people analyze the "fair price" of a stock. The simplest measure is Price-to-Earnings, but that is also very imprecise and open to much interpretation. There are dozens of different ways to come up with an intrinsic value, and since no one way is correct all of the time (except mine  ), you can basically use anything you get comfortable with. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:40 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Well with the ugliness of last month I have decided to grow impatient and make back all those vaporized e$...
I've liquidated my property holdings (go ahead Dave, buy up the rest of the property) so I now have over 150,000 in e$.
I am dividing up my money three ways, because I see two of the picks I am making having significant risk. The first is Imperial Sugar (IPSU) which has not been having a fun-filled last couple of weeks. It is very volatile and I am betting some of that volatility works up as well as down. The other risk pickup I am making is in the CBOE Implied Volatility Index (^VIX), which we probably should have all had last month... but hindsight is 20/20 as they say (sidenote: I have 20/15 vision, so someone had to explain that to me when I first heard it). In general, ^VIX is contrarian in regards to the indices, and has sank about 25% on the last little rally. I am looking for a 30% move up in June, and it is wildly volatile enough to do that several times over.
My other buy is Headwaters (HW), which has just been getting crushed and is now in the mid $20s. It has a P/E of just over 8 with a PEG of 0.5, and I'm saying it is undervalued by at least 50%. Go buy some of the $30 LEAPS on it with your retirement savings, I like Headwaters almost as much as I like Gaming Partners (GPIC).  |
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| frusnak |
| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2006 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Great thread INWB, thanks for your insight! |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:43 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | I've liquidated my property holdings (go ahead Dave, buy up the rest of the property) |
Nope, I have decided to self-limit myself to at most 10 of any one item. I still maintain my monopoly on seaside property that way though.
| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | My other buy is Headwaters (HW), which has just been getting crushed and is now in the mid $20s. |
Do you know why it's been getting crushed? In other words, are you confident that it's a correctable situation and not a fundamental change in their business environment?
I'll sidetrack the discussion for a moment with a different example.
That's a 5-year chart for Eastman Kodak. They continue to pay a dividend (soon to be discontinued, if you ask me) but they lost money in their most recent financial period. Since January of 2002 they've essentially been wasted money. Is this a good play?
No.
I don't think it takes a genius IQ to recognize that film is a dieing (if not dead already) industry. Kodak has other business areas, but film is (was) a huge part of their business. So there's a fundamental shift in their operating environment.
When you look at numbers and pass them through your model, how much reading / research do you do into the company itself? Into their industry, their competition?
That's one of the many reasons why I invest more in technical stocks than others, as I know that industry already (to some degree) and therefore can spend less time researching stocks. CBI, one of your other holdings, is an example of a stock that I just would never buy because I don't have the time to get comfortable with it. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Wow, I completely missed your post Dave. Shoulda bumped it - I must have logged in quickly and logged out before I saw there was a new message here. I'll run through all those questions when its not 2 a.m.
As for now, an update on my portfolio holdings:
Still have AAPL. Its rallied. I made back a ton.
Still have ARLP (2 positions).
Sold some CBI, but still holding a couple hundred shares.
Picked up Coach (COH). Actually, a lot now that I look at it. 
Holding some FRK at a big loss. Pondering buying more.
Three positions in HW now, with the current price ($23.22) almost perfectly between two of my price buy-in points.
IIJI has been a house of pain. Don't really know why I have it now.
IPSU rallied 15% today, so that was a good pickup. 
PRS was bought off the results of a valuation model. No real change as of now.
RAIL scored excellent results in my model, and looks to be doing alot of things right as a company right now. Up over 10%.
I have two positions in TSM, and should have added more at $8 like I said in the CP thread. Why didn't I?
UNH has come back from the bottom, where I also should have bought due to the margin of safety there. This review is making me feel stupid.
I still own WTI.
Ummmm... for the review, it could be hindsight, but maybe I should be a little more active and decisive. |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Thanks for the update. I've been coasting along with a portfolio value never much over e$25K so I decided to make a big bet this month. So far I'm losing.  I purchased a whole bunch of shares (40K) of SIRI at the open, hoping to see it retain its after hours gains. It did not. In fact, it dropped. Substantially. Ouch. I'm giving it a few more days to try to see if it's a trend or an aberation, and will decide what to do.
But hey, once you drop e$171K it's hard to average down, you need a bunch more cash. My hard-earned e$8.5K realized gain from last month has gone, and taken about e$2K of its brothers and sisters with it so far. Not a fun thing.
I would consider taking some of your gains on AAPL. I don't share Grim's "doom and gloom" scenario for the company, but I think it's at a good point to take some gains off the table, if you can. Especially if it breaks $70 on the upside, see what you can do to preserve some of your gains.
Don't track any of the other stocks you own, so no advice there. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:46 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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The more I look at my portfolio the more I think its time to redeploy some e$. I am likely to cash out half of my AAPL and some of my COH... I must've gone in for 4,000 shares of that by accident instead of 1,000. 
I also might drop some WTI. At one point that was doing extremely well, but I haven't looked at it in a looooong time and need to find some pretty convincing reasons to keep more than 50,000 e$ in it. |
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| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Fri Sep 22, 2006 6:59 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Here is an update of my holdings as of market close today, note I have reduced my long positions benefitting from market upswings and am largely invested for a down move.
Sold most of my AAPL
ARLP
Planning on buying more CBI
COH has done well for me
FRK
HW is moving back up
IPSU is my largest % gainer
PRS is another stock I like
RAIL
UNH
Just bought some VLO
And then we have my hedge play. |
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