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| VIX vs da Naz |
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| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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OK, da VIX is now rallying off a sell signal, that's a negative, so look for a trend change in here possibly as early as tomorrow, perhaps the rally in the Naz will be created when traders realize the possibility that crude and the entire energy sector won't be coming back, because the oils are going to start a serious downtrend now that is gonna make Cramer's DKS call look like child's play  I wouldn't expect too much from this rally, the sector that has the best shot at a rebound is the semis, and the SMH will have serious trouble getting through 38.00, not sure which of the resistance areas the Naz will bog down at, but 2 resistance areas were set up on this fall, one at 2148, and a gap of resistance from 2165 to 2155, it'll probably make it there by Fri because remember, there has never been a major market tumble on a Tue, Wed, or Th so if you are going to play the long side for 10-20% on a trade you had better get in on any early selling, don't wait until the stock is at a tippy top and buy it like Cramer does!  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:22 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Da bulls made a mistake again by buying on the open, I can see the naz getting to at least 2125 before the rally that makes you some muny, but da bulls are still anxious to get their butts whooped it appears, maybe one last crude oil rally will calm em down, my suggestion is to relax, there will be increased volatility in the next few days, it's really a simple concept, buy low, which means when fokes is panicing, sell high, which means like the situation in VPHM  speaking of frenzies, keep yer eyes on this former sub 1.00 dawg which may soon qualify for the EI game above 2.00, SMTX, I think the .72 low was final low, but it left a questionable signal at .80 centavos, now it is frenzying which possibly means that at least somebody is starting to see value, it belw right through 1.95 resistance this mownin, failed above 2.00, and just failed at its first attempt to get above 1.95, let's see if next support at 1.50-1.55 holds, watch this one if there is panic selling to take it back below .80, or if da frenzied fools are gonna drive it to nutso levels, I'm not even going to check next resistance above 1.95 yet, don'tchu worry though, da Reaper is doin all he can to get da idiot traders out of da mawkets, when I do we will all be able to relax, not over the next few days if ya's tradin though |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 8:58 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Oil crap gettin deeeeestroyed! makes sense, I'm wreckin the vast majority of bets into options expiration were that oil and the energy sector would rise, and of course most fokes was bettin that the Naz would fall based on the high put/call ratio, we'll find out the truth after OE, and I have a feeling that da fokes who was tryin to manipulate da mawkets since the London bombings won't be able to handle the truth, not that they really care, it's your muny after all and please, DO NOT give your muny to ANYTHING that Jim Cramer says to buy, that is the single most important piece of investment advice I can give you, my thesis has yet to be proven, but it will be |
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| MrInvestor |
| Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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Looking forward to see your results on that thesis Grim.
Speaking of oil I thought it was gunna hit $70. Think it will by the end of summer? Or was that push to $66 the high... |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Hello MR.I, the push to $50/barrel was actually the high, that happened about 6 months ago, the push to $67 was a result of several factors, here are a few:
1. Millions of viewers who actually invest $$$ in the markets believed Jim Cramer when he said the price of oil and the oil stocks had a way to go.
2. China comin atcha like a nightmare!
3. Heavy fuel sucking vehicles of war meandering through the Iraqi desert!
4. Savvy oil company executives who know that the way to drive a frenzy is to feed a frenzy, and the way to do that is to use the millions of $$$ you made in stock options, because your stock was lifted from the dead to become one of the largest capitalized companies in the entire civilized world, to buy even more stock at prices that you personally wouldn't pay, unless you were using someone else's muny.
5. Freakin hurricanes!
Those factors contributed most to the current high in crude than anything else, but me and my boyz Guido and Tony are doing everything we can to get the price down to a level where you will at least feel comfortably violated |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2005 3:46 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Interesting week this past week, and they finished things off with no real way to accurately guess what is going to happen on the open on Mon, but I would say that continued strength in the energy sector will lead to selling in the Naz on the open Mon, I don't think things will happen on an scale that will move the markets quickly, to me it appears that energy will stay steady to the slightly upside on the open, and the Naz may show a bit more concern and move a tad more skidishly to the down side I'd like that setup if I was looking for a trade long, I think Cramer is gonna get a 5% move in INTC which will give fokes another chance to decide whether they should take profits, 28.00 will be the big test, if it even gets there, my intuition tells me that the oil stocks are going to turn lower early in the week and take out this past week lows, and then go into another gapdown which they will not recover from, for a looooong time, 985 is the number to watch on the XOI oil stock index, 118 on the OIH, lookin forward to this week's festivities |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:56 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Sniff sniff, can ya smell it? I sho can, I smell fear in the offing, oil futures trading up through 70.00, expect to pay 3.00+ fo gas before the weekend is out, da mawkets sho ainna gonna like dat oh no, so what's Dubya gonna do? do you think he will do exactly what he did while energy prices steadily rose over the past 3 years to a point where it could be political suicide for da Republicans? which of course is absolutely nuthin! will Dubya wait until the absolute last minute to announce that he is releasing reserves from the SPR? probably but dats the o-fish-al Reaper purdickshun, Dubya comes in on his high horse and saves us all from even further increases at da pump, I don't think it will be soon enough to save da naz from my minimum target before this current round of selling ends, which is 2040ish Naz, da VIX should easily make it through 14.50, I doubt it will make it through my final 18.50 target, I suspect we will see a relief rally in da Naz off the low I just mentioned, that will take da VIX back down to the 11.00 area before even more selling takes da Naz to even lower levels, so that means no new 52 week high for the Naz before we see March 2003 levels again, minimum, da bulls should have listened when da Reaper told em not to take out the 52 week high earlier in the summer, oh well, now they will pay da price, and da oil bugs is gonna pay the biggest price of them all! |
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| cwing |
| Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 5:27 am Post subject: |
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Associate
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| Grim It is already 3.00+ at the pump in good old Albany. These bastards I tell you. I am going to get fit by riding my bicycle to work. I didn't even take my motorcycle out this year. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 5:52 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Hang in there cwing, Reaper to da rescue! I'm just glad that Pres Bush actually visits this site and reads my posts! did you see that call I made on the SPR befo da fack? WOW! just goes ta show, da chawts never lie and can actually foretell wassa gonna happen in de ecomoney, just you wait en see if me call on RE doesn't come true now dat da homebuilders won't be seeing those highs again for years to come oh yeah, Mr Bush, if you are reading this I just wanted you to know that you aren't quite the worst Pres the country has seen in the last 30 years, keep up da good woik cause da Reaper knows exactly what ya's up to and I use it against da idiots who play da mawkets based on logic |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 3:18 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Weekend Naz/VIX update time, looks like this coming week will set the stage for intermediate market direction, da naz signaled sell on Fri and looked like it was going to sell off which would have been bullish, instead it rallied but then sold off into the close, it was interesting how da Naz fell even as the price of crude broke below 68.00, but not entirely unexpected since da Reaper did mention on several occasions that one of the "signs" will be falling stock prices into falling crude prices, methinks that there is going to be some renewed buying in the o/g stocks come Tue, but nothing to be concerned about, methinks it'll be da bagholders pulling up to da pump to "top off da tank" so to speak we'll see if the Naz continues with the late selling on the open, the final target for the VIX is still 18.50+, no matter what happens I do believe we will be seeing lower highs for the Naz on any rallies, and it would be best for anyone who wishes to go long that the Naz sells off to my minimum target of 2040 before the next strong rally, but if da bulls wanna premie em that's fine witme, da Reaper always be lookin fo sumbody to apply da severe butt whoopin to |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:19 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Gonna reiterate da number on da VIX one last time since today's market action got it ever so close, 11.50, that is the number that needs to be breached in order to confirm the last price bottom, da Naz did close above the last gap of resistance at 2155-2165 today, the leadership among the o/g stocks also rallied and are all now within 5% across the board from confirming all of their nonconfirmed trend and price tops, gold and silver stocks also rallying, setting up nicely here for a historic event, luckily fo da bulls da mawkets never have crashed on a Tue, Wed, or Th, I,ve mentioned that many times, but Fri is only one trading day away now  not gonna go out on a limb and purdickt an Oct 1987-type move setting up, but all of the ingredients are now in place, and a Naz fall into the 1600's would be just what the Dr. ordered to clear the air of the rampant speculation in all arenas, be careful out there! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:21 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| At this juncture da VIX is at a point where it must move up on the open Mon or it is going to put in a new trend bottom, this trend bottom would come in lower than the last one at 12.30, so I am stuck in a conundrum here! is da VIX gonna go down and confirm that last nonconfirmed price bottom at 11.50 or not? eventually I know that it will, so experience tells me that if the VIX does rally on the open (which means that the Naz heads lower) there will be hope for the bulls at some time in the future, there will be no way to tell how far the Naz will pullback before the next rally begins so we will have to see how things play out, but I will go out on a limb and say that the Naz will start lower on Mon simply because it did exactly the wrong thing off the signal that came in on Th, it rallied, perhaps there will be a bit of sideways action early in the week before another chance for the big salamie materializes on fri, I still believe a 2 to 3 day fall of several hundred points is forthcoming, and that event will begin on a Fri followed by more panic selling on a Mon after fokes get home from work and check their portfolios to find how much money they lost, if the 11.50 price bottom is not confirmed with a lower low before that event occurs it will lead to a strong buy opportunity, if the 11.50 low is confirmed with alower low then the Naz in all likelihood will be toast until we see Oct 2002 lows taken out, but the good news is that the economy sensitive sectors like the automakers and the airlines are signaling that a bottom is close at hand, so America ain't dead yet, just totally messed up! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2005 5:16 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Da VIX set up a new trend bottom on Mon, it is a gap of support at 11.45-11.85 (VIX currently at 12.27 off the 12.30 high), I like the way da Naz is selling off and setting up for the next rally, that rally will come when the next wave down in energy begins methinks, which could be today, if da Naz breaks below 2160 before the next rally I believe 2160 will be a ceiling too tough for the Naz to rise above, da VIX will break below 11.45 on the Naz rally I am saying will materialize, and I think falling energy prices will cause the rally, there is a good chance that you will see a 2 or 3 day tumble in the oil stocks for 20%+ across da board, a fall like that should cause a strong Naz rally, if it doesn't you had better watch out, there will be very few safe havens, the next couple of days will be very interesting and fun to watch for anybody that wishes to observe market sentiment at work, and how adjustments get made when thangs get outta whack, thangs be outta whack fo sho right now, and market action in the future may confound alot of fokes if what I have been calling fo materializes, as of right now I am willing to accept the possibility that the Naz may rise stronger than I anticipated, for now anyway |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Vewwey intawesting you siwwy wabbit! 3 days ago nobody woulda thunk dat da Naz could possibly break below 2160, but da machinery told da Reaper dat it might, and sho nuff sho nuff! I also said that the VIX 11.45 low will be breached, now we's a just gotsta figure out how far da Naz falls befo da VIX falls, I do know that crude hasn't started a tumblin yet, so da Naz bulls may have an ace up the ole sleeve, will any rally that ensues before the Naz reaches its final destination of sub 2000 take out the 52 week high? stay tuned sports fans! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:01 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| OK, now we are at a point where da VIX and da Naz have done everything they need to do, on Fri da VIX moved below that 11.45 low I mentioned, so that confirmed that low with a lower low, and the new low of 11.07 that was put in did not signal that an even lower low was due, it came awful close though so Mon is a key day, as long as da VIX does not make a quick move lower to say 10.50 the chances are good that this is short term VIX bottom, which means that da Naz will turn in here soon to the downside, so that's it, here we are, a slow rally on the open in the Naz would not hurt the chances we go lower, a spike up move on da Naz early probably menas we go higher, if that was the case my final bottom target for da VIX would have to be lowered, that's actually good news for the economy, I'm just hoping we don't get all da good news up front and save some for next year |
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