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| VIX vs da Naz |
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| cwing |
 Posted: Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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Associate
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 03, 2005 1:56 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Cwing! where ya been buddy?!!  don't forget the RUT, XOI, SOX, OIH, and a bunch of others I'm wreckin, remember, no safe havens!  |
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| cwing |
| Posted: Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:55 am Post subject: |
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Associate
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| i was just checking headlines...didnt look too indepth.. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:05 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Still no major breakdown yet, and now the o-fish-al hour of frenzied fun that runs from 2-3 pm is now over, so I'm wreckin we will see if today is the day that sets da Naz on da journey into the abyss below, looks like the homebuilders want to try and refill those gaps though, I mentioned the gold stocks as a safe haven, but this move today is a little bit uncalled for if they keep it up I may have to get in there meself and kick their butts!  i guess da tradin fools just ain't happy unless they are involved in a frenzy, jeeesh! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:19 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:43 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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The jobs report comes out above ave consensus causing the futures to drop, I expected that since this means that Greenspan is not about to apply the brakes to rising short term rates any time soon, as I said many times before, Greenspan has a tremendous feel for the markets and knows when things are getting overheated, the biggest challenge he faces is controlling human sentiment, in fact, it is impossible to control sentiment, that is left to the markets, and since the markets are nothing more then a process of matching buyers and sellers there are periods when emotions outweigh common sense, we are definitely in one of those periods right now, we will soon find out just how far emotions have taken stock valuations when the price of crude begins to tumble, one would assume that falling crude prices would mean the advance in stock prices will regain upward momentum, that's what one would assume, unless of course emotions have taken stock prices well above where the market dictates that valuations should actually be  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:03 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Here's a weekend update of how da VIX vs da Naz closed on Fri, as well as an overview of some of the other major indicies and sectors, unlike most investors who take the currrent scenarios that affect us all (like the price of gasoline for instance) and apply that to where they feel a stock in that particualr sector may trade going forward, I look at da chawts and try to figure out how it will effect real life situations going forward, looking at the chart of homebuilder TOL for instance I see a stock that reached a 52 week high that does not need to be confirmed with a higher high, it then did a mini gapdown, attempted to fill that gap by moving higher but only made it 1/2 way into the gap, and now it has gapped down yet again on Fri, plus the chances are better than good it will gapdown yet again on Mon, if that happens then the market is telling us that those who believed the strength in the homebuilding sector would continue were letting emotions take over, will what is happening in the homebuilding sector carry over into the real estate market and affect home prices? I say the stock market determines everything in any sector you want to discuss, but we shall see, and I am real anxious to see how far the homebuilding stocks fall before Jim Cramer finally sees!
For general market indicators, da VIX gapped up on Wed to a high at the close on Th, believe it or not it actually gapped down on the open Fri and filled the Wed morning gap up which setup the scenario for the Fri VIX rally into midday, when Naz selling materialized in the afternoon the VIX once again gapped up to the 12.93 high but remained in the sell mode it was put in after the Fri mownin gapdown, that gap up was created from the 12.50 area, here's the bad news for the stock market bulls, at appx. 3 PM the VIX signaled buy to wipe out the sell mode it was in, the VIX then sold off after the buy signal, that's a bullish scenario for da VIX, I am showing a closing low of 12.48 for the VIX, just low enough to close the gap that was created earlier in the day, therefore, I am about as sure as sure can be that we will have a Mon that will be just as bad or worse for da bulls than Fri was, my final target for the VIX is still 18.50 minimum, my current target for da Naz is still sub 1915, but I am not going to predict the action until that level is hit and get a chance to reassess at that point since this fall in the Naz is coming off a confirmed top, that means that there was no signal that even higher prices were due when the Naz traded through 2200, I tried to warn da bulls to leave the 52 week high at 2106 alone but they didn't wanna listen, let's see what happens now other stock indicies I follow that now have long term tops confirmed and do not have to move higher (based on my indicators I have followed since 2001) include the 2 oil/gas indicies XOI, OIH, the small speculative stock index RUT, the 2 semiconductor indicies SOX, SMH, about the only index I follow without a confirmed top is the gold mining share index HUI, it showed signs of strength in here lately, my view as expressed in a previous post is that we may see a flight to perceived safety if fear spreads throughout Wall St, I added a gold mining stock to my EI picks here yesterday, I wouldn't personally buy a gold stock just yet though because I am more of a buy and hold type investor, I think they will eventually get slammed to new 52 week lows, the time to buy gold stocks will be when the Fed is forced to inject even more liquidity to the system to either save the faltering economy or because of high anxiety brought on by some event, like a complete collapse of everything but doanchu worry, it appears that Joe Public will get a break from George Dubya Bush in the form of rapidly falling energy prices, so let the charade continue! |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Nice! reeeeeal nice! everything goin right to da Reaper plan, even with today's fall in da Naz it closed the day in a mildly oversold condition, with no signal yet that a reversal may be close at hand, and I see that some of the bears at various discussion boards figured that enough is enough and decided to take profits on their short positions, tain't nuthin better for the case of a true bear than a wanna be bear who is gettin skeeered! I wouldn't expect any type of a bounce just yet since the Naz hasn't even broken below the first of the nonconfirmed price bottoms at 2160 yet, if it happens with another double digit fall tomorrow I'm wreckin da pseudo bears will be even more skeered to get back into short positions, so we'll have a market full of skeered bulls, skeered bears, bulls lookin ta buy cause of the 15% upside move that will materialize when the price of crude starts a tumblin according to their anal-ysis, chearleaders without a clue that are hoping Jim Cramer was right, and anal-ysts saying to buy gappin crap even though they don't own the stock themselves, conditions like this make a true bear feel all warm and comfy inside |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:29 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Otay, here's where methinks we are right now, today I think we will begin to see the much stronger wave of selling begin in the energy sector (except that CHK has to give da Cramer idiots that bought his buy rec a chance to decide whether or not they really want it as CHK still needs to breach the 52 week high), if you are tuned in to CNBC you see them pumping the semiconductor sector this moanin (is CNBC the mouthpiece for the powers that are orchestrating the royal scam? ), the SMH closed yesterday with a negative OBV of -20 million on the 10 day chawt, so CNBC's pumping looks as if the timing is just right for a rally in the semis, and all the anal-ysts CNBC brings on say that a fall in crude of say $5 would create a strong rally in stocks, will the Naz trade to a new 52 week high? it should if you believe the anal-ysts |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:29 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Nice! SMH up only .50 yet the OBV has risen from -20 million to -10 million, looks like sumbudy is just beggin ta get their butt whooped! the oil inventory report is gonna create a nice market reaction today I'm wreckin, then we will see if de anal-ysts were correct or da Reaper was correct, no new high on da Naz for this move, just a march to da big salamie |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:39 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Thank you T. Goon Pickens! boy, when he came out and purdickted $75 crude within 1 year it sure sent da idiots into a frenzy, I didn't think CHK was gonna hit the 29.63 high before a retracement, but it looks like it should be all over this afternoon, da Naz should still rally when this is all over, but T. GOON baby just gave da o/g stock shorts new highs that weren't expected, except i'm sure T Bone expected em cause I'm sure he's selling into strength, that's why he qualified his statement by saying "well nobody... well look, I think oil will hit 75.00 within 12 months" once again CNBC is the voice the frenzy traders wanna hear! for those who know better and aren't skeered of a frenzy but use it to their advantage once again I say, "Thank you T. GOON, or T.Bone, T. Boone, whatever yer freakin name is!" LOL |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Let's see how much da shennanigans today mucked up da chawts, that was purty wild today, wasn't it?!! da bulls was purty much havin their day early until T. Boone spoiled da fun, what do you expect from an oilman? listen ta Dubya, he's an oilman, we heard what he said yesterday, now T. Bone speaks and oil and stocks separate in a big way! I have a feeling that there is going to be a change in how rising oil prices are viewed in here for good, the funnymental reasoning that if oil rises it means the economy is doing good so stocks should also rise is gonna go out with da twist soon, in fact, I think da twist will be coming back sooner than the premise that stocks and oil should rise together I doesn't mind if they fall together though, today da chawts closed at a situation where you really can't judge direction based on the Naz or the XIX chawt, but 2160 was finally broken, I have a feeling they are going to drive the Naz lower before the next rebound, so maybe my assumption that the Naz was gonna run to at least 2190 will be wrong and it will rallyfrom a lower levvel to a lower high, possibly this 2160-2175 area, I do know that the oil sector verged on the edge of get in at any cost today, it'll be interesting to see what happens next, with yet another Fri approaching, remember, nothing epic ever happened on a Tue, Wed, or Th I seriously doubt that I want to be long anything that is at least 100% above its march 2003 high though, dat much I do know |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 4:29 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Hmmm, Naz rallying along with the oils, I would rather have seen the Naz fall as oil rallied if I was a bull, now I'm back to thinkin that both stocks and oil will fall togehter again, this short term guessin is tough! oil is gonna get salamied, that much I do know, it'll be interesting to see the reaction of stocks, that's what I'm most interested in at this point, hopefully fear will spread cause we be lookin fo a good buy opp |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:13 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Jeeesh! yet another fire at an oil refinery in Tx?!! these Tx refinery fires are goin off like wildfire all of a sudden I'd say it sounds fishy if I didn't know that Dubya is doin such a great job with homeland security, nobody can mess wit dem oil refineries just so that the crude market goes higher in a frenzy maybe sumbody just spilled a coke on da control panel or sumthin |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:17 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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This past week was pretty crazy and definitely raised the anxiety level up a notch, it's pretty clear that the oil bugs are going to try and rally on any little piece of news that has negative implications for supply, if a hurricane was on track to hit the gulf of Mex this weekend I promise oil would have easily hit 70.00 this past week that's the way it is, if oil was to drop sharply on Mon I could forsee a nice rally in the Naz, I believe oil and the Naz will start going their seperate ways for a short time, possibly only a few days, when stocks rallied this past week along with oil before the T. Boone news it was probably because the speculators in stocks felt any rally in oil would soon fail, which would bring in the small investor to say the semis when they saw some of em up 5% in a single day so I believe that is probably what is going to happen, hopefully from a little lower level in da Naz, I'd like to see the o/g stocks finish off this move, and take the golds along with them, looks like my contention that 222 HUI would be taken out actually might come true, I think I mentioned that in a previous post at this site  I think the semis will lead the next rally and they may be the only sector showing strength, so I'd say the chances are better than good that the Naz will not see a move through 2190 on any rallies from here, watch the homebuilders for clues, that is one of the "axis of evil" stock sectors over the past 3 years, retail could still rally and if the homebuilders and oil stocks fall I doubt the Naz makes a new 52 week high, my target for da VIX is still 18.50+, 10.50-11.00 will be strong support, if da bulls can get da VIX to drop below 10.50 on a closing basis they win! |
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