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| VIX vs da Naz |
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| Grimreaper |
 Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 11:24 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Still nothing on the chart that says the Naz has to climb any higher or the VIX has to fall any further, that could change with a strong upmove in the Naz sometime during the day tomorrow however, side note, bullish sentiment at other stock trading sites looking for the top of this move to be somehwere in the 2250 to 2380 area, it should happen since everyone is calling for it, but sometimes the markets have a tendency to throw a wrench in da machinery of what looks obvious to most  |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | OK Dave, no problem, give me a handful of names you bought in the past 18 months and you plan on holding like you did with INTC, if you don;t mind of course and tell me the one you purchased most recently, thanks! |
For the most part everything I've purchased (that I can remember at the moment, anyway) has been ETFs. I've bought spiders and cubes and some sector spiders. That saves me the "agony" of picking specific stocks, and let's me play individual areas of the market without committing to specific stocks.
You've already given me your opinion on WDC.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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So basically you switched from buying stocks which you had done since 1998 to buying ETF's the past 18 months huh? I'm not sure why you were agonizing over the gains you said you had, but to each his own, right? I knew they would be bringing WDC back up, that's why I posted at this site about the manipulation when it took that heavy hit off the 16.00 high, I didn't keep track of it afterwards and to be honest I don't even know how close I came to the bottom of the fall when I posted about it, my outlook for WDC hasn't changed though, I don't think you will be able to hold that one for the long term unless you are willing to hold onto another CIEN type experience, the market makes the final decisions of course, nice move on WFMI today too, it was funny how Cramer had a special telephone call come in regarding WFMI in between segments of the show  I may have to borrow WFMI tomorrow for a quick fun play here at EI since we gots one mo day ta play, tomorrow should be fun! |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | So basically you switched from buying stocks which you had done since 1998 to buying ETF's the past 18 months huh? |
Yes, I gave me reason for that. I don't have enough time or the inclination to try to research specific stocks at the moment, I'm just tired of seeing microscopic gains from my cash sitting on the sidelines. So by buying ETFs when I think the market is in an overall up-turn (over the next 12-18 months) I'm at least "in the game" so to speak.
| Quote: | | I'm not sure why you were agonizing over the gains you said you had, but to each his own, right? |
I'm not sure where "agonizing" came from. You asked for holdings, I gave them to you.
| Quote: | | I knew they would be bringing WDC back up, that's why I posted at this site about the manipulation when it took that heavy hit off the 16.00 high, I didn't keep track of it afterwards and to be honest I don't even know how close I came to the bottom of the fall when I posted about it, my outlook for WDC hasn't changed though, I don't think you will be able to hold that one for the long term unless you are willing to hold onto another CIEN type experience |
We'll see. Check back in a year.  One of my other somewhat recent purchases that I'm having some thoughts about is TIVO. On the one hand, if you ever talk to a current TIVO customer, they are absolutely rabid about the service. On the other hand, they need to transition from being a hardware company to a service company, and let someone else produce the equipment. I'm not slightly from my entry point, and if it drops into the 2-3 range I'll probably double up.
| Quote: | | nice move on WFMI today too, it was funny how Cramer had a special telephone call come in regarding WFMI in between segments of the show I may have to borrow WFMI tomorrow for a quick fun play here at EI since we gots one mo day ta play, tomorrow should be fun! |
WFMI has been a holding of mine for many years. When it got to a certain point I took my money off the table; the gain I got for selling half my shares is more than enough to cover my investing. If the remaining shares go to zero, I'm still happy with the trade. If the remaining shares go to the moon, well, I've still got shares.  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:54 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Hi Dave, that's why I don't like funnymental anal-ysis as a main tool for pickin stocks, you have to do so much research to generate the type of gains you mentioned that it gets ya tired! as G. Dubya Bush might say, "this stuff is haaaaaaaard!" so going with a basket of stocks through an ETF is a good choice for the market weary, unless ya buy da wrong basket, too each his own, right? and yes, I think one of our views on WDC will play out within the next 12 months so we'll keep an eye on er, I looked at your list of stocks and another one caught my eye, SONE, I think I almost bought this a couple years ago when it was down at these levels but you said it traded to 125.00? when was that? I'm startin to like this dawg! I don't even know what this company does but I might actually buy it if it makes it to 3.00-3.25 I'm not sure if I kept track of TIVO or not, and as of right now me chawts is down again  I'll give you my opinion as soon as I get a looksee at the 20 day chawt |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 2:25 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Woohooo! I got a chawt on TIVO! right now it has worked itself into the buy mode and one might assume it is going to try and fill the double gapdown it made, I'd be real careful and I definitely would not buy if it starts to rally from the getgo because it might actually fail at 6.66! I'd wait for the next pullback to see if 6.20-6.25 holds, I don't think it will if the general market turns in here, which as everyone knows I am at least acknowledging is a possibility 5.00 would be a distinct possibility if things turn for the worse, then I would reassess and see what might happen next that's all technical BS which is solely how I base my decisions, I'm sure it's pretty cool what you can do with a TIVO box, but I think I'll wait until they package my cable, internet, music, movies, phone calls, and throw in a free pizza all for one flat monthly fee of $100, I'm not sure what that would do for the prospects of TIVO (the product) if what I am looking for actually happens |
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| Dave Rathbun |
| Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:16 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Here's my story on SONE. I was looking around in the late 90's for something to buy, and I hit on the idea of internet banking. It seemed like a natural thing... banks would want to put everything online, so you can check balances, pay bills, all that stuff. I had worked my choices down to two stocks, SONE and something else that I don't remember.
SONE is not an internet bank... they are a company that makes software for internet banks. In other words, if you are a bank and want to get on the internet, they make an entire suite of products that allow you to do this. They also offer a secure data center so the bank doesn't have to actually build out the infrastructure. Anyway, to keep things short, I purchased 300 shares of SONE.
In February of 2000 they did indeed trade at lofty levels, up over 140, actually. I sold shares at 126. Today they're back down where I bought them.
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 4:04 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Ahhhhhh, that's why I didn't see that move, I didn't start following it until it hit da skids for that first multi year low, I think it is trading even lower now but I'm not sure, I do know I'll be trackin it though so I'll try to keep you up to date when it hits the buy target I mentioned, I guess SONE was just another casualty of the last stock market bubble, I don't think it'll fair as poorly as WDC does when they unwind the current tech bubble though |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:28 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Da VIX looks like its attempting to form one of those flag formation thingys, I don't refer to flags in my personal trading too much because I find them too unreliable, I've seen just as many flag setups break lower as higher but the Naz just did a little mini dip down to 2186ish and change, for the VIX to enter the buy mode it still needs to at least hold the current 11.30 area, the flag setup would be a retrace down to the 11.00, so my intuition tells me that there will be one more attempted rally in the Naz sometime today, my guess is that they get it done during the 2 to 2:30 pm buying frenzy, Ican see several stocks that are still holding near the 52 week highs even after this selloff, fokes just wanna believe! if da Naz fails to take out the 2190's and heads lower I bet it heads lower in a hurry, last chance for the bulls to prove their case right in cheeeya?! |
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| MrInvestor |
| Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:38 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| Grimreaper wrote: | | OK Dave, no problem, give me a handful of names you bought in the past 18 months and you plan on holding like you did with INTC, if you don;t mind of course and tell me the one you purchased most recently, thanks! |
That might cost a LOT of e$.... 
What is the going rate anyway?
1,000,000 e$ = $1? |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 5:10 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| We finished in a pretty neutral position on both da VIX and da Naz for Fri's close, da VIX did work its way into the buy mode, but da Naz actually maintained buy status according to the charts at Big Charts, which is not the usual site I use, the TA is pretty simple at this point though, if the Naz opens down on Mon it could easily fade into the sell mode and trade to at least 2160, then we'll see what goes from there, if the Naz opens higher instead the VIX would more than likely consolidate in the 10.50 area, a break below there and a failed attempt to get back above 10.50 means I would be revising my prospects for da big nasty, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Naz trades to at least 2160 on Mon, it also looks like the energy complex will tumble after a possible early morning run, if we have a case where crude falls and stocks also continue to fall it may end up being a catalyst for more selling, another conundrum so to speak it would actually be the markets takin care of bidness, but I would expect some sectors to rally after a point, I mentioned the airlines, maybe the golds, and perhaps the retail stocks will even do well enough to come back up to retest these highs, that would be the only explanation I could give for why SHLD would fall before trading through 163.50 again first, at this point I'd like to see it fall of course |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 5:46 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| One last post for evidence of a possible major correction in the offing, periodically I post ratios I refer to in order to help determine where we are in the cycle like the HUI/price of gold ratio, and the Naz/VXN ratio I mentioned in previous posts, here's another that is not only at a peak but is making a lower peak even as the Naz traded to a new 52 week high, it's the NYSE % of stocks above their 200 day moving ave, in Jan when the first Naz high was made the % of stocks above their 200 day was at 65%, when the markets retraced into March and then rallied the % rose to 80% as the Naz made a lower high, that was a divergence, then came the big selloff into 1890ish which created the current stealth move to where we are now, the current % of NYSE stocks above their 200 day moving ave now stands at appx. 75%, that's lower than it was when the Naz was at 2100, so there are some signs of selling already as the % highs works its way up to the 80% range, does anyone think the % will hit 100%? |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:34 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| The one scenario I did not expect was a gapup on the open in da Naz, but that's what happened, it is actually the worst case scenario for da bulls, I believe the gap will be filled before the close and we will indeed have our key reversal day today, that means the Fri low will be taken out at the close, Naz currently at 2197.55, off the 2198.20 high, I also think the energy complex will fall along with stocks in general, that will surprise the bulls and cause them to add into weakness in hopes of a rebound in falling stock prices, but the rebound will not happen which will lead to even more selling. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:04 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Well, no key reversal day today, but no close over 2200 either, and da VIX was rising into market strength, either the VIX or da Naz is gonna win this battle in a big way, I believe today's higher close takes us to a new record for consecutive days without consecutive lower Naz closes since 1985, the forward PE on the RUT 2000 is now over 30! WOW! I guess nobody learned a thing from the last stock bubble the first down day in the Naz will be a 2% move, that means 50+ points. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:40 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Da VIX spiked to 18.51 today on the open, probably false data but that's my target, 18.50, Naz rally on the open leaves open the possibility of a key reversal day again today, Naz needs to close below 2189 fo dat, now at 2210 and methinks this is where the trouble starts, perdickshun! Naz closes below 2160 before the day is through, let's see. |
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