| Author |
Message
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett |
 Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
CFO
|
| Grimreaper wrote: | I only began following indicies in genrul about 3 1/2 years ago so I can only judge based on my own personal data. The prior low fo da VIX since I have been following it is 10.15 so we are now at a 5 year low(I know da VIX did not trade balow 10.15 whilst da Naz was tumblin in the 2000-2002 timeframe). As I mentioned bafo, the lowest trend low fo da VIX dat I captured wassa at 10.50. "If" we were to have the most bullish condition materialize into the end o'da year and da Naz were to continue to rally to new highs off the bearish sell signal that came in today....based on my system da VIX could move to a low range of 7.35-6.60.
And yes...a lack o'buyers could certainly turn into a watershed very quickly. Just watch GOOG trade during any period during the day when it trades down for instunce. Like me said at da GOOG board, they wassa movin it above 499 in the last half hour today 100-200 shares at a time. Yet when the selling began the bid quickly fell to 498.95...then 498.85...then 498.73, 498.65, 498.47 like it did in the final seconds. |
I can tell you that in the middle of July last year the VIX went under 10 to 9.88, and the low over the last 16 (almost 17) years is 9.31 set way back in 1993. I see no chance in hell for the VIX to go to your low range. Why?
Right now we are in the lowest 1% of volatility. This is literally a 1 in 100 value - only 9 times in the last 880 weeks has the low for volatility been under 10.25, and only 3 times has it closed as low as it did. This is a great time to be an options buyer.
As for GOOG, I completely saw what you were talking about in terms of the 100-200 lot buys to move the price up, followed by a bunch of 15k+ share dumps that made it settle in where it did. I'd like to see it fall hard and fast... did anyone else see the article about online ad spending slowing? I'll look for it later if I can, but could that start to mean... DOWNward revisions for GOOG? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:56 pm Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | Grimreaper wrote: | I only began following indicies in genrul about 3 1/2 years ago so I can only judge based on my own personal data. The prior low fo da VIX since I have been following it is 10.15 so we are now at a 5 year low(I know da VIX did not trade balow 10.15 whilst da Naz was tumblin in the 2000-2002 timeframe). As I mentioned bafo, the lowest trend low fo da VIX dat I captured wassa at 10.50. "If" we were to have the most bullish condition materialize into the end o'da year and da Naz were to continue to rally to new highs off the bearish sell signal that came in today....based on my system da VIX could move to a low range of 7.35-6.60.
And yes...a lack o'buyers could certainly turn into a watershed very quickly. Just watch GOOG trade during any period during the day when it trades down for instunce. Like me said at da GOOG board, they wassa movin it above 499 in the last half hour today 100-200 shares at a time. Yet when the selling began the bid quickly fell to 498.95...then 498.85...then 498.73, 498.65, 498.47 like it did in the final seconds. |
I can tell you that in the middle of July last year the VIX went under 10 to 9.88, and the low over the last 16 (almost 17) years is 9.31 set way back in 1993. I see no chance in hell for the VIX to go to your low range. Why?
Right now we are in the lowest 1% of volatility. This is literally a 1 in 100 value - only 9 times in the last 880 weeks has the low for volatility been under 10.25, and only 3 times has it closed as low as it did. This is a great time to be an options buyer.
As for GOOG, I completely saw what you were talking about in terms of the 100-200 lot buys to move the price up, followed by a bunch of 15k+ share dumps that made it settle in where it did. I'd like to see it fall hard and fast... did anyone else see the article about online ad spending slowing? I'll look for it later if I can, but could that start to mean... DOWNward revisions for GOOG? |
I don't recall da dip balow 10.00 but looking at the 3 year chawt I wouldn't doubt it. The lowest trend low was 10.50 though...I am sho o'dat. My low buy here at eI was 10.05...and I bought a full 100K shares at 10.50 or less.   Do I sound maybe a lttle too bearish?  No?!! Well, I own a chitload o'MZZ too!  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 6:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
Jump bulls jump! If da Naz trades to 2390 befo it rallies to 2450 I will be veeeery happy.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 5:10 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
Well...ifn da SIM is awake today I should be gettin $350000 werth o'da VIX at 9.87. But I think the trade I am gonna be most proud of is that I bought some Jan VIX 11 puts at .35 centavos. This bet will payoff more bigly than any scratch off lotto tickey I could ever buy! ....I hope.  The move in 15 minutes to Naz 2456 has the look of a blowoff move. I think Manny's plan is to take some off fer X-mas gifts....keep selling into panic....and then run it up BIGLY in Jan so they can take the bulk o'their profits tax free till 2008. Sounds like a plan ta me! Dat's what I'd do anyway....and these guys are waaaaay smawter than me. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 5:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Grimreaper wrote: | | Well...ifn da SIM is awake today I should be gettin $350000 werth o'da VIX at 9.87. But I think the trade I am gonna be most proud of is that I bought some Jan VIX 11 puts at .35 centavos. This bet will payoff more bigly than any scratch off lotto tickey I could ever buy! ....I hope. The move in 15 minutes to Naz 2456 has the look of a blowoff move. I think Manny's plan is to take some off fer X-mas gifts....keep selling into panic....and then run it up BIGLY in Jan so they can take the bulk o'their profits tax free till 2008. Sounds like a plan ta me! Dat's what I'd do anyway....and these guys are waaaaay smawter than me. |
Well isn't dat special? I finally got my fill on those VIX buys...guess what I got?  20000 shares at 10.34....15000 at 10.02!  Thanks Mr Sim! Ya fookin a$$hole!  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 9:33 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Last time volatility got this low it ralled 25% in a matter of days. Expect something similar to occur again... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 9:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | Last time volatility got this low it ralled 25% in a matter of days. Expect something similar to occur again... |
I ainna settlin fer "similar"...you can if yawnto. I've actually been taking 2% gains on VIX positions bought at or balow 9.70 as it now trades through 9.85. I think they will set em up into the close for one last rally in da Naz on the open and a break o'da VIX below 9.64 sumtime tamarrah won' sooprise me attall.  Will it be a "mommy! make it stop!" moment for those going long da VIX? Do you remember what I said was the possible capitualtion low for da VIX....it's less than 9.00 ya know.    |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| geb9696 |
| Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 12:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Investing VP
|
| You think VIX trades below 9? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| geb9696 wrote: | | You think VIX trades below 9? |
I never think....I just acknowledge da possibilities. Based on the lowest trend low fo da VIX (10.75) she kin actually see sub 8.00! ...wit an outside shot at sub 7.00. They'll have to gap da Naz up at least 20+ points for dat to even be a possibility at this point. Ifn they did you can look back at an opportunity to get long da VIX sub 8.00 as the best opportunity you will get in years! I'd stagger a series of outta da muny calls for 2007. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 3:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| It's a premawket frenzy! Looks like VIX 11 Jan calls will payoff nicely. I expect the buy signal to come in fo da VIX today and ifn dat happens I will do my best to fulfill my promus ova Black Fri/Blue Mon one-two punch! Tain't nobudy in their right mind could purdict sumthin like dat based on what's happnin wit futures right now. So ifn ya aren't a half-crazed lunatic I doan suggest you try this at home. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
 |
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 3:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| I still think da VIX will take out the all time low which was set on Dec 22 1993 when it traded to 9.17 and closed at 9.31 that day. BTW, within 5 days o'dat low da VIX traded through 13.00. I expect the same to happen now...and then one last rally so Manny kin bank his gains in 2007 avoiding taxes until who knows?...maybe things will be so messed up come 2008 dat taxes won't even matter! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 2:39 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Otay! We are definitely in setup mode once agin. Da Naz signaled buy late yesterday and began selling off...dat's bullish, so I expect the rally to begin today which should confirm tops on most everything that hasn't topped out yet. I'm not sho ifn anybudy noticed it but da VIX traded to a low of 8.60 early Mon. It doan show up on da chawt but yer online broker will probly verify dat low. I expect it to be matched or eclipsed as I expect a strong wave o'buyin in da Naz....possibly on economic news. Looks like everything will top out together as I see the commodity plays and energy pigs are rallying off lows now too. Let's get ready to rumble....I mean tumble! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett |
| Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 9:53 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Grimreaper wrote: | | I'm not sho ifn anybudy noticed it but da VIX traded to a low of 8.60 early Mon. It doan show up on da chawt but yer online broker will probly verify dat low. |
Grim, I saw that too but I think it was a freak blip on the calculation at the open because it was only there for a few seconds. I wouldn't put too much stock into what you see the VIX clocking in at before 9:35. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:43 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| Im Not Warren Buffett wrote: | | Grimreaper wrote: | | I'm not sho ifn anybudy noticed it but da VIX traded to a low of 8.60 early Mon. It doan show up on da chawt but yer online broker will probly verify dat low. |
Grim, I saw that too but I think it was a freak blip on the calculation at the open because it was only there for a few seconds. I wouldn't put too much stock into what you see the VIX clocking in at before 9:35. |
Ooooh, I think VIX 8.60 will be hit sumtime tamarrah. I see all da bulls gettin worried at da various boards I visit. I'm sure they are gettin whoopsawed outta their trades. I saw one clown who everybody worships like Cramer go from 70% long to 30% long on yesterday's selling. Today I'm sure he upped his chort position from 5%. Tamarrah he'll be scramblin to go long n cover agin. Not sho ifn I kin make it Black Fri tamarrah unless there is anudder blowoff run...but there is a strong rally coming in da Naz. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2006 3:17 am Post subject: |
|
|
CFO
|
| I gotta congratulate Manny. Dat was one hellova levitation job he dunn to hold er steady into da new year! The signals fo both da VIX and da Naz are pretty clear to end the year....which makes perfect sense now dat everybody is tryin to figure out whether or not they should stawt scaling in chort, take some off, or add to positions. Anyhoo, based on da fack dat da VIX staged Fri's rally afta a sell signal I would look for that index to either collapse on the open come Wed or to rally up through 12.00 bafo headin back balow 10.00. It almost did it el correcto when it had a chance to on Tue and Wed....but not quite. On da flip side, da Naz did what it needed to do to confirm the 2410 price low set just last week. Ifn you look at da 10 day chawt you kin see where it confirmed that low with the selling into last Fri.....then it traded up through 2410.....now it is retracing to retest that low. Yesterday da Naz signaled buy and then sold off immediately afta. Dat's bullish! Da Reaper gonna gar-own-tee dat da Naz do not close balow 2410 next week. So it looks like da Whoopsaw Man will be back....and werser yet, methinks this coming rally will be strong enuff ta make ya wanna chase it cause me still thinks da VIX hits sub 9.00! Of course it has to be aaaall over by Fri since da Naz never crashed n boined on a Wed er Th. This update brung to ya by da Reaper....I'll take care o'da chort term stuff and let summa da udder fokes handle da longer term guessin since dat stuff be too easy. Butt you fokes who baleave in Goldilox may wanna try a new professhun! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
stock market game on the web. At eInvesting you compete for monthly cash prizes while you interact, make virtual dollars, purchase items, and trade in the realistic stock market simulator. We make investing FUN!
