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| Jim Cramer's Real Money Radio - no link w/ thestreet.com |
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| freeye |
 Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:39 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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hey Jumbojack, Bankman, MrInvestor David Rathbun or would you be interested in participating or reviewing the JIM CRAMER TEST with grimreaper and freeye?
we could appreciate some suggesting on the rules to ensure fairness for one, and also we may need one person to serve as the average investor and of course someone to serve as the judge in case of any disputes on the rules etc.
the rules we are considering appear about 4 posts back on this topic (a freeye post).
it shouldn't take much of your time.
freeye |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:15 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Hi Freeye, I actually doan shivagits about any o-fish-al Jim Cramer test, I just get involved with discussions concerning him because I know about his past record, and I know what is going to happen to people who buy the stocks he mentions at the prices he says to buy them at on Mad Money, so I am sounding a warning bell so that perhaps people will at least observe the fools first round of idiotic calls before they decide to jump in on anything he says, as of right now it's kind of a mixed picture, but it won't take long to work itself out, we can use the entry prices I posted on the previous page for some of his picks, although I made a mistake with GOOG, I said 175, I meant 275, just to give him the benefit of the doubt with the extra cushion since in reality he is still saying to buy it, but maybe he'll change his mind on tonights show, although I doubt it, I'm gonna stick with my previous opinion that he won't say sell until each of these stocks is down 50% from his buy levels, did you notice how MLNM and TIBX are already inching closer?!  actually, neither of those should lose 50% from his buy point, although MLNM might, remember, my buy point is currently at 5.50ish, but hopefully I'll have to adjust that downward, you know, buy low, sell high and all dat good stuff!  |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:40 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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this is a great opportunity to prove what you know about jim cramer grimreaper and i really would like your participation, although your participation isn't absolutely necessary.
i just thought if you reviewed the TEST RULES and gave a suggestion or two on how to make the rules more fair or to give the current rules the grimreapper certification of fairness stamp, that the results would have greater value to the members of this forum.
as you know, i have been one of your biggest supporters as to the potential value of what you are saying when others on these boards were trying to shout you down.
please reconsider the possibilities and what is at stake through the expiration of the rules negotiation time period at least and then at that time let me know if you are in or not in.
i hope that is not asking too much.
i'm thinking of using the results to make a case for or against the value of following the jim cramer radio and television shows, who knows we may even get coverage from the national media.
the way i figure it, we will have to do more than one test on one stock, but i haven't settled on the number of stock tests that would be adequate; possibly someone reading this will be kind enough to assist us in this area and in this endeavor.
i'm also hoping the eInvesting administrator will seriously consider what kind of free coverage in the media of such a test may do for building traffic here at the eInvesting site if we were successful in proving that a national radio and cable talk show host backed by the largest corporation in america general electric, (GE) is doing the things you are saying he is doing.
can you imagine it grimreaper!? can you!?
freeye |
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| MrInvestor |
| Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:59 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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I don't mind being an impartial juror...good luck to both of you.
How many e$ are you betting? If you want donate them to me and I'll be the escrow. Muhahahah!
Kidding. |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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Freeye, I'm not here to make friends! I'm here to save you muuuuuuuuneeeeeeeeee!  tonight we see jammin Jimbo conundrumizing himself, he is telling people not to panic because oil is creating this selloff, yet at the same time he is still telling people to buy crap like the drillers, especially HAL, in fact, he told us that appx 14% of his charitable trust fund is dedicated to oil stocks! what he doesn't realize yet is that the thing that is going to create an end to the panic in the Naz (for a little while anyway) is a collapse of crude oil and the very oil stocks he is telling people to buy! is this guy messed up or what?!!  oh yeah, I'll try and keep up with the awesome calls like this one I'm makin right cheeeya or my calls on IIJI and DSTI, just ta keep my "value" up fer da viewing audience  |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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CFO
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| Freeye! yo Freeye! Freeye! we have our first call from JC on one of his picks! looks like he wants the people who bought TIBX at 7.25 to keep holding even after the stock was driven down to like 6.50 in after hours trading on crappy earnings, coooooool beans! he didn't say to buy, and he didn't say to sell, his buy call was crappy, so he wasn't too happy, but no buy or sell call, it sounded kind of like an "oh well" call, what would you do if you bought TIBX at 7.30 on a Cramer induced frenzy and then Cramer said "oh well" to ya after this news? |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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to MrInvestor: no discussion of any bets being placed on the outcome of this or any subsequent tests, we were trying to negotiate a fair set of rules for the initial test.
if you could briefly have a look at the below rules and offer up any advice on how to make the test more fair or their current state of fairness, that would be great.
after your brief review... if there are any disputes about the administration of the rules we may ask you to rule one way or the other.
here are the rules below:
THE JIM CRAMER TEST - RULES NEGOTIATONS
we agree to follow haliburton, (HAL), as a test of jim cramers' stock picking abilities, if we can negotiate some fair rules of the test, such as how we will handle each succeeding purchase of, (HAL) etc.
jim cramer teaches to buy a stock in stages as it comes in... this isn't debateable it is a fact, so this is what we will do.
he also teaches that after your 1st purchase of a stock your second purchase of a stock should be lower and the third even lower still, usually in equal number of shares, thus lowering your cost basis, with no limit on the number of purchases.
since jim cramer is on the record having said that oil will fluctuate between $49-59 bbl area and it is currently at the top end of the range we have to expect in the future the price to move towards $49-54 bbl. and when it does the price of (HAL) may come in, and aditional purchases will be made.
for the purposes of the test it will not matter if cramer says to buy above the first purchase price of $46.00/shr. since this would go against the his teachings of buying as the stock comes in.
if jim cramer issues another buy on (HAL) then an equal number of shares will be purchased at the closing price that day. verification of the buy calls by cramer must be verifiable through online archived transcripts or online archived media streaming, available for free to the public.
since jim cramer is teaching investors to eventually think on their own at anytime the person serving as the "average investor" in the test can choose to buy additional shares as long as it lowers the cost basis of the (HAL) position, without waiting for a buy call from jim cramer.
if jim cramer issues a take a little off the table call then the average investor may take 15%, 25%, 33% or 50% on (HAL). at any time the average investor may chose to take a little off the table as long as it is at a profit using the same percentages as above.
if jim cramer issues a sell or a ... sell-sell-sell... triple sell the position is sold by the average investor and the evaluation process begins.
close of negotiations on these test rules will be 5:00 pm est june 28, 2005.
we may extend the negotiation time period as needed, but for only a day or two.
freeye and or grimreaper may keep track of the buys but the impartial judge will decide disputes on whether a buy signal was issued or was recorded accurately.
at this writing i haven't agreed to this test this is just the negotiation of a possible test.
freeye
p.s. anyone reading this that wants to offer an opinion on the fairness or
to suggest enhancements to the rules feel free to post them here at
this topic "Jim Cramer's real money discussion." |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:58 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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Yessir Freeye, I'm trackin him like a trophy buck in da wild! I'll use those stocks I posted, here they are again, SHLD, GOOG, TIBX, MLNM, CPN, DUK, HAL, so far TIBX had news which affected the stock price in an adverse way, down 10% off jumpin Jim's 7.25 buy point, no adjustment necessary for fokes who bought on JC's advice according to his commentary last night  |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:58 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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6/20/05
oil analysts valuing crude oil @ $49/bbl as long as they do shares of oil companies will go up.
look for crude oil to move between $49 -59/bbl.
(ECA) is his favorite.
buying your stock positions all at once is arrogant.
total record of jim cramer's buys and sells from his first week of mad money show will go up on the free site thestreet.com.
do not buy (BP), (XOM) or royal dutch they will go up but will under-perform relative to the smaller oils he likes. |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:28 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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6/20/05 p2
cabelvision (CVC) going private +5 shr.
the (CVC) deal value its subscibers at $4,700 each.
buy time warner - hand-over-fist.
$4,700 x 10.9 mil subscribers = $51.0 billion is what time warners cable business is worth. time warners whole business is worth 78.5 billion. aol is worth about $5/shr.
expect time warners stock to go up the next several weeks from $17 to $20/shr.
buy comcast - hand-over-fist.
$4,700 x 21.5 mil subscribers = 101.0 billion is what comcasts cable busines is worth and it is trading at 70.0 billion.
expect comcast stock to go up the next severak weeks to $32-38/shr.
freeye |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:06 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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6/21/05
bankrates, (RATE) website operator. now @ 37 x earnings let 1/2 of position run, ring the register on 1/2.
annally mortgage, (NLY) slashing dividend. earnings stream is volatile... ceo never promised the dividend would be steady.. it is the total return. buy (NLY) and put it away... 7% yields.
umqua corp., (UMPQ) bank potentially could move up $6/shr. $15 book value now @ $24/shr. when they are bought out they will be taken out @ 2 x book value or $30/shr.
buy - jp morgan 4% yield 12 x earnings is cheap.
hold - (PNC)
poss. buy - wells fargo bank , (WFC) 14 x earnings 3% yield
hold - (KEY) european bank may buy this one.
swap - from marshall and isley bank, (MI), 15 x earnings 1.9% yield now trading at a premium to other banks. into commerce bank, (CBH) 16 x earnings growth is all that matters it is growing much faster than (MI).
(CBH) offers the best service... doesn't try to compete on rates. currently only in ny & philly.
DANGER ZONE: zimmer holdings, (ZMH) NOW @ $81 DOWN $2.
sears holdings, (SHLD) land bank for retailers... costco, darden restaurants are having trouble finding sites quickly with approvals from local governments for retail.
500 sears & kmart stores have over-lapping trade territories so 500 stores could be closed without hurting earnings.
may sell sears canada too.
the federal reserve will not continue to raise short-term federal funds rate much past the thursday 6/30/05 2:15 pm est 0.25% expected increase and is almost done... this why he likes the banks.
buy - church & dwight, (CHD) they will buy what gillette, (G) & proctor & gamble, (PG) have to sell to consumate their merger.
lucent, (LU) - jan '07 is the time frame for the turn-around. when (LU) is nicely above his cost basis i plan to let a little go, so i do not get trapped again.
if china national oil does not buy unocal look for them to buy:
1. anadarko, (ADC)
2. apache, (APA)
3. burlington resources, (BR)
4. devon, (DVN)
5. eog
6. taliesman
7. encana, (ECA)
do not buy any of these as a speculation on take-over... fundamentals are excellent.
chevron, (CVN) may have interest in the other ones that china national oil doesn't buy.
something is likely to get done with china national oil because goldman sachs doesn't get paid until a deal gets done. |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:27 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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6/24/05
the glass is 1/2 empty not 2/3 full.
53% bulls on investors intelligence survey. above 50 is when we begin to run out of bulls... this is when all news gets interpreted as negative.
took profits this morning... chased out the marginal position in my porfolio when bullishness ib +50%
non-cyclical that do not use oil went down with the cyclicals that do use oil.
market is now looking through a bear filter.
buy (PG), (MO) supermarkets & medicine chest in this type of market.
buy johnson&johnson, (JNJ) $4 off its 52 week high, will likely get guidant much more cheaply now.
buy - tibco software, (TIBX) $1 down $3 up right here. has 1/2 billion in cash.
sell - chevron texaco, (CVX)
sell - unocal ... take the money and run.
sears holdings, (SHLD) leg into it. if you wish to buy 100 shares buy 25 shrs @ a time over the course of a month, 25+25+25+25.
jones soda, (JSCA) - sell it
salesforce.com, (CRM) take some off the table, expensive stock, 200 pe only 47% growth rate.
very bullish on the refiners right now.
lightening round:
hold - pixar
rf micro ... prefers skyworks solutions
pnc sierra ... prefers intel, (INTC)
buy - bofa
hewlett packard, (HWP) ... prefers intel, (INTC), microsoft, (MSFT) & cisco system, (CSCO) |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:31 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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| i'm thinking of including 5 stocks in the jim cramer test... rules of which are posted on Jun 23, 2005 2:27 pm posting on this topic. each one of the 5 from a different sector. |
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| freeye |
| Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:17 am Post subject: |
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Investing Manager
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6/28/05
grimreaper: i was wondering if you caught jim cramer's real money monday radio show where jim answered the question...
Q. is it right that stocks jump when i say that i like them?
jim cramer said;
"if they keep going up after buying them then it is right, and if they go
down then it is wrong, unless i tell you to use a limit order."
what do you make of this, grimreaper? |
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| Grimreaper |
| Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:23 am Post subject: |
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CFO
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| What do you think about what he said about the Supreme Court's ruling on the laws of eminent domain? I think he should show a little more empathy for the people who don't have the power or the resources to fight for their rights now that the government has decided to take even more of them away under King Dubya's rule, after all, alot more people will be alot poorer soon, namely the people who buy on Jim Cramer's advice! |
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